Growth and Control for LADCO Round2 Modeling Mark Janssen, LADCO May 17, 2005

“On the books” Controls Current state/local rules to meet 1-hour ozone requirements (e.g., motor vehicle I/M, reformulated gasoline, and NOx SIP Call) Heavy-duty diesel (2007) engine standard/Low sulfur fuel Federal control programs incorporated into NONROAD model (e.g., nonroad diesel rule), plus the evaporative Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle standards Federal railroad/locomotive standards Federal commercial marine vessel engine standards Tier II/Low sulfur fuel Title IV for EGUs (Phases I and II) VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT standards Combustion turbine MACT Industrial boiler/process heater/RICE MACT

Future Years to Model 2006 (2007) Attainment year for marginal O3 NA areas 2008 (2009) Attainment year for basic O3 NA areas 2009 (2010) Attainment year for moderate O3 NA and PM2.5 NA areas 2012 Attainment year for serious O3 NA areas 2018 First milestone year for regional haze Note: E.H. Pechan provided growth factors for each year between 2003 and 2018, and control factors for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2018

Round 2 Emissions: VOC

Round 2 Emissions: NOx

Round 2 Emissions: SO2

Candidate Control Measures: VOC Industrial surface coating Industrial solvent cleaning AIM coatings Portable fuel containers Automobile refinishing Consumer and commercial solvents Asphalt paving Note, also, draft regional fuels strategy reduces on-road VOC emissions from 2370 to 2230 TPD (-140 TPD)

Candidate Control Measures: NOx EGU1, EGU2 ICI boilers Cement kilns

Candidate Control Measures: SO2 EGU1, EGU2 ICI boilers Cement kilns

Round 2 Strategies: Change in PM2.5 Design Values

CAIR Implementation

CAIR

CAIR Implementation: Trading Questions Should we examine a “no-trading” CAIR run? Are reductions at certain power plants needed for attainment (e.g., power plants in or near nonattainment counties)? If so, then should we insist on those (CAIR) reductions or consider beyond-CAIR reductions (e.g., BART, if applicable, or EGU1/EGU2)?

CAIR Modeling: “No Trading” Option Technical Approaches Rerun IPM with constraints Post-process IPM outputs assuming electrical demand “neutral” (intra-state basis) Policy Questions Should we revise the allowances within the 5-state region?

“No Trading” Tools/Options IPM generates the least cost solution Solution:Use the 2009 Base IPM Output The only set that has emission rates and technology Create tools that pick sources to control based on Q/D(Class 1 or NA), BART, or emission mass controlled by region, state, corporation. Problem: Could create solution that violates reliability, construction timing, facility level reality.

BART-Eligible Sources: Emissions (TPY) 149 BART-eligible facilities (70 EGUs) 88% from 25 facilities (223K TPY out of 252K TPY) 67% from 25 facilities (65K TPY out of 97K TPY)

Inventory Schedule May 16: Begin update of base year inventory June 1: Begin 12 km emissions modeling July 1: Begin processing IPM output data July 1: Deliver Base “J” Inventory August 15: Deliver Round 3 emissions Aug-Oct: Continue update of base year inventory (network data, other fixes) Nov 1: Deliver Base K inventory December 15: Deliver Round 4 emissions

Base J/Round 3 Priorities Inventory improvements Base year improvements 50% of state Point and Area updated Rerun Nonroad (Include Minnesota) State comments on growth and control factors Incorporate WRAP’s dust inventory Include CENRAP/MANE-VU/VISTAS Inventories New IPM outputs and Crude “No Trading” 12 km emissions

Base K Improvements First Round of CONCEPT Incorporation – Things we don’t do well in current models Offroad – Run CONCEPT nonroad model which calculates temperature adjusted nonroad estimates EGU – Include complex analysis of CEM temporal data into modeling process. Potential

CONCEPT and T3 Network Incorporation Project To include 25 Urban/Statewide link based networks + Complex Temporal. 2002 was in original contract for T3. 2009 and 2018 should be easier but still complex ?How many days will it take to run model?

State Support For CONCEPT (Things we don’t do with current models in red) Implement EH Pechan's IPM to NIF Converter(Fang, Edick) Continue work on the CEM analysis and develop Month, Day, and Hour profiles (Edick) Get T3 and CONCEPT and new networks. (Janssen/Vit) Get Midwest RPO's RPO control files working in the Forecasting model(Judson/Heatherington) Get Qt and Qgis working with CONCEPT. (Brooks) Get Midwest RPOs nonroad inputs to work in CONCEPT (Heatherington) Run 2002 Base J inventory in CONCEPT's point and area model. Enhance QA as needed.  (Judson/ Spraige) Re-write the CONCEPT Output Tool (Janssen, Edick) Run 2002 biogenics with CONCEPT model for 36 and 12 KM grids. Also work with contractors to include MEGAN+ science in model for secondary PM chemistry. (Baker, Janssen) Incorporate LADCO's updated speciation and temporal allocations factors into CONCEPT for point and area sources. (Sprague) Do Ammonia model sensitivities: (Sponseller, Panuley)