Lev Tarasov and W.R. Peltier

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Presentation transcript:

A Preliminary Calibrated Deglaciation Chronology for the Eurasian Ice Complex Lev Tarasov and W.R. Peltier Memorial University of Newfoundland/ University of Toronto

Inferred Greenland temperature

Glacial modelling challenges and issues: What's missing in pure geophysical reconstructions

Glacial Systems Model (GSM) 3D thermo-mechanically coupled ice-sheet model, 0.5 * 1.0 (lat/long) model resolution VM2 viscosity model detailed surface mass-balance and ice-calving modules global gravitationally self-consistent RSL solver fully coupled surface drainage solver

Climate forcing Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) precipitation and temperature from 4 (6 for N. A.) highest resolution Paleo Model Intercomparison Project GCM runs Mean and EOF fields Present day observed fields

Climate forcing time-dependence

Lots of ensemble parameters 3(5 for North America) ice dynamical 13(16) regional precipitation LGM precipitation EOFs most significant for North America 4 ice calving 4 temperature 4(2) ice margins 1 model version = 29 (32)

Need constraints -> DATA

Initial European deglacial margin chronology (Saarnisto and Lunkka, 2003) margin forcing: surface mass-balance near ice margin adjusted to fit chronology applied up to +- @100 km buffer zone

New margin chronology (Svendsen et al, per. comm., Oct/06)

RSL site weighting (U of T RSL database)

Noisy data and non-linear system => need calibration and error bars

Bayesian calibration Sample over posterior probability distribution for the ensemble parameters given fits to observational data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods Other constraint: Minimize margin forcing

Large ensemble Bayesian calibration Bayesian neural network integrates over weight space Self-regularized Can handle local minima O(1 million) model sampling

Overall best RSL fitting models Black: new margin Red: old margin Problem with south-western Norway

Mean ensemble LGM ice thickness

ICE-5G LGM thickness

LGM: Ensemble mean - ICE-5G

1 sigma range for LGM ice thickness

Ensemble mean present-day rate of uplift

1 sigma range of ensemble rate of uplift

Deglacial eustatic sea-level chronology

Summary European contributions: LGM: 19.5 +- 1.5 m eustatic mwp1-a: 3.1 +- 0.5 m eustatic (4.9 +- 0.8 m old margin) Strong dependence on margin chronology likely problems with south-western margin chronology for Fennoscandia physical model + calibration against data => meaningful error bars/probability distributions Significant differences with ICE-5G => CAN'T IGNORE CLIMATE and ICE DYNAMICS

Key points to walk away with GSM + calibration = data and physics integration There's more to ice than just post-glacial rebound, RSL, and mantle viscosity