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The effect of GIA models on mass-balance estimates in Antarctica Riccardo Riva, Brian Gunter, Bert Vermeersen, Roderik Lindenbergh and Hugo Schotman Department.

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Presentation on theme: "The effect of GIA models on mass-balance estimates in Antarctica Riccardo Riva, Brian Gunter, Bert Vermeersen, Roderik Lindenbergh and Hugo Schotman Department."— Presentation transcript:

1 The effect of GIA models on mass-balance estimates in Antarctica Riccardo Riva, Brian Gunter, Bert Vermeersen, Roderik Lindenbergh and Hugo Schotman Department of Earth Observation and Space Systems (DEOS) Delft University of Technology GRACE Science Team Meeting, Potsdam, 17 October 2007

2 Introduction Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA): Ice model (ice distribution at LGM, melting history) Earth model (lithospheric thickness, mantle viscosity, lateral variations) Secular geoid changes: Surface mass variations Internal mass redistribution (GIA, seismo-tectonic processes,…) Antarctic mass variability: Snow accumulation up to 2000 Gt/yr Predicted unbalance up to 200 Gt/yr

3 Ice models: IJ05 and ICE-5G IJ05 by Ivins and James (2006): for Antarctica mainly from geological data free from a specific Earth model local constraints on total ice melt earlier and gradual deglaciation ice melting in East Antarctica mainly along the coast ICE-5G by Peltier (2004): for the whole Earth mainly from sea-level data tied to Earth model VM2 global constraints on total ice melt later and sudden deglaciation ice melting also on internal East Antarctica

4 Antarctic eustatic sea-level rise from LGM

5 Ice load at 21 kyr before present (LGM) IJ05ICE-5G

6 Ice load at 11 kyr before present IJ05ICE-5G

7 Ice load at 7 kyr before present IJ05ICE-5G

8 Present-day GIA IJ05ICE-5G

9 RL04 GSM mass variability (2006-2003)

10 GIA-corrected GRACE GRACE - IJ05GRACE - ICE-5G

11 GIA variability I: IJ05 Min: 40 Gt/yr (litho 120, UM 10 21, LM 10 23 ) Max: 90 Gt/yr (litho 65, UM 10 21, LM 4x10 21 )

12 GIA variability II: ICE-5G Min: 25 Gt/yr (litho 120, UM 10 20, LM 10 21 ) Max: 150 Gt/yr (litho 65, UM 10 21, LM 10 22 )

13 GIA variability III: upper vs. lower mantle viscosity and lithospheric thickness

14 GIA: northern hemisphere contribution Ice model: ICE-5G Earth model: VM2 Mass change: 17 Gt/yr

15 Antarctic mass change estimates IJ05: 82 ± 25 Gt/yr ICE-5G:105 ± 64 Gt/yr GRACE: 44 ± 20 Gt/yr GRACE - IJ05: -38 ± 32 Gt/yr (0.10 mm/yr e.s.l.) GRACE - ICE-5G: -61 ± 67 Gt/yr (0.15 mm/yr e.s.l.)

16 Conclusions Antarctic ice mass loss derived from GRACE is in the range 0-120 Gt/yr, (0-3 mm/yr e.s.l.) depending on the GIA model (40-170 Gt/yr). Due to different ice distribution and deglaciation history, IJ05 and ICE-5G have very different GIA signatures, especially regarding their response to mantle viscosity. Peak GIA values are mostly smaller than GRACE values, but GIA total mass change can still be larger due to its positiveness. GIA due to ice loads in the northern hemisphere, though locally small, represents and important contribution to the total mass change.

17

18 GIA: West vs. East Antarctica

19 Leakage I

20 Leakage II

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