How do voters make up their minds?
Who Votes? People who are registered People with more education People with more interest in politics People with higher incomes African-Americans (all other things equal)
Turnout 2008
Voter Turnout, 2004 & 2008
Effect of education on turnout (2008)
Effect of income on turnout, 2008
Effect of race on turnout? (2008)
Did race make a difference?
Youth voter turnout
The year of the youth vote? 2004 and 2008 turnout rates
Voters are Ignorant
What do voters know? the United States is a democracy (88%) presidents serve 4 years (93%) know that popular votes don’t elect the president (69%)
What do voters know? 99% can name the US president 25% can name both of their US Senators 29% can correctly name their representative in the House
What do voters know? 31% can describe affirmative action 39% can locate Massachusetts on a map 15% can say what the New Deal was 20% could name a memorable political slogan
How do voters decide? Party ID/Ideology
Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president
How do voters decide? Party ID/Ideology Evaluations of the current president, current conditions, economy Issues (opinions not otherwise guided by above) The candidates’ personalities Promises and policies
Do voters really decide based on issues presented in the campaign? Median Voter Theorem: In a winner-take-all system, parties should promote policies that appeal to the voter at the median of the distribution of voter preferences. In Presidential elections, ensures that candidates will gravitate toward the middle, and NOT try to distinguish their positions
Do Presidents Win Mandates? Only if: Clear campaign positions Voters know what their own positions are Voters know what president’s positions are President wins clear electoral victory