VISTAS 2002 MPE and NAAQS SIP Modeling

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Presentation transcript:

VISTAS 2002 MPE and NAAQS SIP Modeling Jim Boylan Georgia Department of Natural Resources VISTAS Technical Lead for Air Quality Modeling RPO National Technical Meeting – Denver, CO June 9, 2005

VISTAS Annual Model Performance

Sulfate (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Nitrate (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Ammonium* (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002 *Assumes (NH4)2SO4 and NH4NO3

Organic Carbon (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Elem. Carbon (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Soils (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Coarse Mass (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Fine PM (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Light Extinction (IMPROVE) January 2002 July 2002

Sulfate PM Fractional Error

Sulfate PM Fractional Bias

Sulfate Bext Fractional Bias

Nitrate PM Fractional Error

Nitrate PM Fractional Bias

Nitrate Bext Fractional Bias

Ammonium* PM Fractional Error

Ammonium* PM Fractional Bias

Ammonium* Bext Fractional Bias

Organics PM Fractional Error

Organics PM Fractional Bias

Organics Bext Fractional Bias

Elem. Carbon PM Fractional Error

Elem. Carbon PM Fractional Bias

Elem. Carbon Bext Fractional Bias

Soils PM Fractional Error

Soils PM Fractional Bias

Soils Bext Fractional Bias

Coarse Mass PM Fractional Error

Coarse Mass PM Fractional Bias

Coarse Mass Bext Fractional Bias

Fine PM Fractional Error

Fine PM Fractional Bias

NAAQS SIP Modeling in VISTAS

X X X

X X

VISTAS Modeling Schedule Completed initial 2002 annual modeling (36 and 12 km) MM5, SMOKE, CMAQ Actual (Performance) and Typical (RRFs) Emissions Completed initial 2018 OTW annual modeling (36 km) 2018 OTB and OTW episodic emission sensitivities (12 km) Working on revised 2002 and 2018 SMOKE emissions Will have revised 2002 CMAQ modeling and revised 2018 OTW modeling (revised IPM) done by mid-summer Completed 2009 SMOKE modeling (36 and 12 km), CMAQ modeling by mid June 2009 OTW episodic emission sensitivities (12 km) http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/ http://www.ce.gatech.edu/research/vistas/products.htm

VISTAS 12 km Grid

VISTAS NAAQS SIP Modeling PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas AL, GA, KY, NC, TN, VA, WV All VISTAS states with NAA will use VISTAS modeling for PM2.5 modeling Annual 36 and 12 km modeling for 2002 and 2009 Some states will do additional modeling beyond VISTAS 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Areas AL, GA, KY, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV Some VISTAS states with NAA states will use VISTAS modeling for 8-hr ozone modeling Seasonal 36 and 12 km modeling for 2002 and 2009 Association for Southeastern Integrated Planning (ASIP) Seasonal 12 km modeling for 2008 (Basic ozone areas)

Georgia NAAQS SIP Modeling Georgia PM2.5 modeling (2009) will use ALGA 12 km sub-domain VISTAS MM5 and SMOKE at 12 km VISTAS 12 km for BCs Annual simulations (GA DNR) Pollutant and source specific sensitivities (GA DNR) Atlanta 8-hour ozone modeling (2009) will use GA 4 km sub-domain MM5 and SMOKE at 4 km (GA DNR) Improved GA mobile source emissions ALGA 12 km for BCs Modeling entire ozone season (05/20/02 – 09/20/02)

VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km GA 4 km

VISTAS 12 km VA 12 km VA 4 km

Questions?

Bugle Plot for Mike A.