Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what.

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what GA EPD plans to do about it!! Jim Boylan, Amit Marmur, Jim Kelly Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan (Georgia Environmental Protection Division) Georgia Air Quality Summit Atlanta, GA - May 4, 2006

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Policy Development  Identify menu of control options to be considered  Consider regulatory and practical implications along with costs, benefits, & sensitivities  Develop and implement regulations and policies Air Quality Modeling  Meteorology, emissions & photochemistry for base & future  Sensitivity analysis of responses to various controls by location and species  Impact (relative reduction factor) of overall strategy Cost Assessment  Evaluate cost-effectiveness ($/ton) of each control option Benefit Assessment  Evaluate health and other benefits of control strategy Individual measures, overall strategy to model Sensitivity to controls; Impact & attainment (Y/N) of overall strategy Iterative search for additional measures Control measures to be evaluated Estimated $/ton of each measure Modeled base & controlled pollutant concentrations Morbidity/mortality averted, visibility improved, etc. due to control strategy Integrated Approach to Air Quality Attainment

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Non-Attainment in Georgia Ozone non-attainment areasPM2.5 non-attainment areas 8-hour ozone standard (85 ppb): Atlanta, Macon Annual PM 2.5 standard (15  g/m 3 ): Atlanta, Macon, Floyd county, Chattanooga

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Atmospheric Modeling System Meteorology (MM5) Emissions (SMOKE) +  Air Quality (CMAQ)

Georgia Environmental Protection Division MM5 Meteorological Observations 3-d model predictionsLand use, surface elevation, etc 3-D Meteorological Fields (temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, etc) CMAQSMOKE Initial and boundary conditions Photolysis rates NRM MOBILE6 TP+ Measured EI EGAS 3-D Pollutant Distributions and 3-D Sensitivities Modeling System

Georgia Environmental Protection Division CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model SiSi SiSi RiRi uiui uiui uiui KiKi KiKi KiKi

Georgia Environmental Protection Division CMAQ is a “Supermodel”!! Need to solve the Atmospheric Diffusion Equation for each species in each grid cell for each time step –(200 * 100 horizontal grid cells) x (19 vertical layers) x (100 species) x (4 time step/hour) x (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year) IN AN ANNUAL SIMULATION, NEED TO SOLVE OVER 1,330,000,000,000 PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS!!!!

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Future year emissions (e.g., 2009) Air Quality Goals (i.e., attainment status) Emissions control strategy Healthy Air Pollutant distributions and sensitivities Future year (e.g., 2009) emissions with controls Area not in attainment Area in attainment Attainment demonstration and future year modeling Air Quality Model Both modeling runs use the same meteorological & air quality inputs Note: Air Quality Model Pollutant distribution Model Performance Evaluation Base year emissions (e.g., 2002) Base case modeling Demonstrating attainment using AQ models

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Future Emission Projection Controls and Rules (promulgated as of July 1, 2004): –Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr SIPs –Combustion Turbine MACT –Gulf Power SCR application –Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard –Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT –Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle Rule –Nonroad Diesel Rule –North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act –NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs –NOx SIP Call (Phase I) –NOx SIP Call (Phase II) –Petroleum Refinery Initiative –RFP 3% Plans where in place for one hour plans –TECO & VEPCO Consent Agreements –Tier 2 Tailpipe –Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs –VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards –Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Future Emissions in Georgia Reductions in NO x and SO 2  reductions in ozone and sulfate PM 2.5

Georgia Environmental Protection Division VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Attainment Demonstration Models are used in a relative sense rather than an absolute sense: DV Future = RRF * DV Current –DV Current is based on observations –RRF Modeled Future Concentration = --------------------------------------------- Modeled Current Concentration

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Reductions in Ozone (2002  2009) Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2002 Emissions Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2009 Emissions

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Future Ozone Concentrations *2009 includes four SCRs at Bowen, two at Wansley, and one at Hammond

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Future Ozone Concentrations *Need ozone “buffer” below 85 ppb (e.g., 3 to 7 ppb in Atlanta) – Marmur et al. (2006)

Georgia Environmental Protection Division *2009 includes 2 scrubbers at Bowen, 1 at Wansley, 1 at Yates, and 4 at Hammond Future PM 2.5 Concentrations

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Emission Sensitivities

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Emission Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM 2.5 (  g/m 3 ) Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009) Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009) Regional 10% Emission Reductions –Mobile (on-road/non-road) + area + non-EGU –NOx, VOCs, SO 2, NH 3, and primary carbon (PC) –Atlanta (full & sub), Macon (full & sub), Chattanooga (full & sub), Floyd County Point Emission Reductions –Additional SCRs (NO x ) and Scrubbers (SO 2 ) at seven largest Power Plants in Georgia 2009 emissions already include 4 SCRs and 2 scrubbers at Plant Bowen, 2 SCRs and 1 scrubber at Plant Wansley, 1 SCR and 4 scrubbers at Plant Hammond, and 1 scrubber at Plant Yates

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Ozone Sensitivity in Atlanta 30% Reductions

Georgia Environmental Protection Division NOx & VOCs in Atlanta (Ozone) 10% NO x (38 TPD) 10% VOCs (49 TPD) June 12, 2009

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Branch (2 SCRs) Hammond (3 SCRs) McDonough (2 SCRs) Scherer (4 SCRs) Yates (2 SCRs) SCR NO x Controls (Ozone)

Georgia Environmental Protection Division SCRs at Plant Scherer Ozone at Confederate Avenue - 2002 modeled value above 85 ppb - used for RRF calculations

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Ozone Animations (9:00 pm) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Ozone Animations (12:00 am) 2009 Ozone Conc. SCRs at Scherer GMT

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Sensitivity Avg response (ppb) ppt/TPD reduction 10% Atlanta NO x (20 counties) 1.3635.7 10% Atlanta NO x (5 counties) 0.9541.1 10% Atlanta VOC (20 counties) 0.081.5 10% Atlanta VOC (5 counties) 0.072.2 2 SCRs at Plant McDonough 0.4260.4 4 SCRs at Plant Scherer 0.4113.7 2 SCRs at Plant Branch 0.074.6 3 SCRs at Plant Hammond 0.032.2 2 SCRs at Plant Yates 0.119.9 Ozone at Confederate Avenue

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Fire Station #8 - Annual 30% Reductions

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Scrubber SO 2 Controls (PM 2.5 ) Bowen (2 Scrubbers) Branch (4 Scrubbers) Hammond (4 Scrubbers) McDonough ( 2 Scrubbers) Scherer (4 Scrubbers) Wansley (1 Scrubbers) Yates (2 Scrubbers) 10% PC (Atlanta)

Georgia Environmental Protection Division PM 2.5 at Fire Station #8 Sensitivity Summer (  g/m 3 ) Winter (  g/m 3 ) Annual (  g/m 3 ) Annual (ng/m 3 /TPD) 10% Atlanta PC0.190.360.2585.7 10% Atlanta SO20.020.01 1.9 10% Atlanta NOx0.03-0.020.00-0.09 10% Atlanta NH30.050.070.0510.8 10% Atlanta VOCs0.000.01 0.11 2 Scrubbers at Bowen0.190.070.0910.50 4 Scrubbers at Branch0.150.030.0980.63 2 Scrubbers at McDonough0.110.070.0701.39 4 Scrubbers at Scherer0.380.040.1500.56 1 Scrubber at Wansley0.090.060.0440.44 2 Scrubbers at Yates0.050.060.0370.71

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Health Benefits Modeling

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Health Benefits Modeling Modeling avoided mortality and morbidity associated with various emissions reduction scenarios –Evaluate and prioritize various attainment strategy options –Consider air quality management across multiple pollutants and regions –Improve the net benefits of attainment efforts –Communicate impacts to decision-makers, stakeholders and public

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Benefits Analysis with BenMAP Modeled (or measured) reductions in pollutant levels (and other benefits analysis software) Reduced morbidity, mortality, health costs

Georgia Environmental Protection Division EPA’s Nonroad Diesel Rule

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Health Benefits in Atlanta Health Endpoint 1  g/m 3 reduction in PM 2.5 10 ppb reduction in Ozone cases preventedmillion $cases preventedmillion $ Acute Bronchitis2430.02-- Acute Myocard. Infarct.21673.8-- Acute Resp. Sympt./MRADs 116,8908.644,3313.0 Chronic Bronchitis9023.4-- ER Visits, Resp.1450.04240.01 Hospital Adm., Cardiov.341.4-- Hospital Adm., Resp.520.82502.5 Lower Resp. Symptoms2,7900.1-- Mortality11470034198 Work/School Loss Days20,2322.852,6834.1 Total-811-207

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Future Analyses So far, analyzed health benefits based on observations Next step is to analyze health-benefits based on modeled emissions reduction scenarios (annual CMAQ simulations as input to BenMAP) Ozone –SCRs at McDonough and Scherer –Ground level NO x sources PM2.5 –Scrubbers at major power plants –Primary carbon sensitivities

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Potential Control Measures

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Potential NOx Controls SCRs at Plant McDonough and Plant Scherer NOx Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) –16 Facilities in 20 County area with a NOx PTE over 100 TPY Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) –Example Rule requiring 20% electrification could result in potential 1.1 TPD reduction in NOx Inspection & Maintenance (I&M) –Assessed for 7 new Atlanta Area non-attainment counties Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Hall, Newton, Spalding & Walton –NOx Reduction of 3.17 tons per summer day across all 7 counties Additional NOx Controls –Mobile on-road and non-road diesel controls –Traffic Management and Mass Transit –Open Burning Restrictions –Extend stationary source controls outside of non-attainment area

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Potential PM2.5 Controls Coal/Oil Fired Stationary Sources –Electric Generating Units (EGUs) – Subject to CAIR –Non-EGUs – Subject to RACT Mobile Diesel Controls –On-road  trucks, buses –Off-road  construction, agriculture, airports, and rail/locomotives Open Burning Commercial Meat Cooking

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Clean Air Interstate Rule Federal Rule for the abatement of the regional transport of ozone and PM2.5 in 28 Eastern states Only Electrical Generating Units Subject to Rule 70% reduction in SO 2 and 60% reduction in NOx when fully implemented (from 2003 levels) Cap and Trade program for NOx and SO 2 emissions per ton

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links to Cindy Crawford

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Similar Health Impacts…. Shortness of Breath Increased Heart Rates Even Heart Attacks!!

Georgia Environmental Protection Division EPD Control Strategy

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Summary 8-Hour Ozone –Macon will likely be in attainment in 2009 –Need additional emission reductions to show attainment in Atlanta Reduction from “Regional” NOx and EGU NOx PM2.5 –Macon, Floyd county, and Chattanooga will likely be in attainment in 2009 –Need additional emission reductions to show attainment in Atlanta Reductions from “Regional” PC (OC+EC) Reductions from EGU SO 2 Quantify impact from local sources with a dispersion model (ISC or AERMOD)

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851 Contact Information

Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what.

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Georgia Environmental Protection Division Links Between Air Pollution in Georgia and Cindy Crawford: Shortness of breath, increased heart rates, and what.

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