Project Management (專案管理) Introduction Project management differs from management of more traditional activities mainly because of its limited time framework and the unique set of activities involved, which gives rise to a host of rather unique problems. Time The human resources The work sequence Project Manager Communication Cost Quality

Project Management (專案管理) Project Life Cycle Termination Execution Planning Feasibility Analysis Concept

Project Management (專案管理) Work Breakdown Schedule Developing a work breakdown structure (WBS) to estimate how long it will take to complete the various elements of the project and how much it it will cost. Level 1 Project Level 2 Major Elements Major Supporting Activities Level 3 Level 4 Activities

Project Management (專案管理) Planning and Scheduling with Gantt Charts - For Simple Project Start 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Locate new facility Interview prospective staff Hire and train staff Select and order furniture Remodel and install phones Furniture received and setup Move in / startup

Project Management (專案管理) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) And Critical Path Method (CPM) - For Large Scale Projects By using PERT and CPM, managers are able to obtain 1. A graphical display of project activities. 2. An estimate of how long the project will take. 3. An indication of which activities are the most critical to timely project completion. 4. An indication of how long any activity can be delayed without lengthening the project

Project Management (專案管理) PERT And CPM PERT Used in a high uncertainty environment. Developed by Lockheed Aircraft, U.S. Navy, and other consulting firms in an effort to speed up Polaris missile project CPM Developed by Du Pont to plan and coordinate maintenance projects in chemical plants Developed for much less uncertainty environment

Project Management (專案管理) The Network Diagram Example Order Furniture 4 2 Locate Facilities Furniture Setup Remodel 1 5 6 Move In Interview Hire and Train 3

Project Management (專案管理) The Network Diagram Activity-on-arrow: Network diagram convention in which arrows designate activities Activity-on-node: Network diagram convention in which nodes designate activities Activities: Project steps that consume resources and/or time Events: The starting and finishing of activities. Path: A sequence of activities that leads from the starting node to the finishing node Critical Path: The longest path Critical Activities: Activities on the critical path Slack: Allowable slippage for a path

Project Management (專案管理) The Network Conventions a b c a c b b a c

Project Management (專案管理) The Network Conventions c a b d a c Dummy Activity b

Project Management (專案管理) Deterministic Time Estimates Ex: 6 weeks 3 weeks 8 weeks 11 weeks 1 week 4 weeks 9 weeks The length of each path? The Critical path? The expected length of the project? Amount of slack time for each path?

Project Management (專案管理) Deterministic Time Estimates - A Computing Algorithm LS LF ES t EF ES: the earliest time activity can start EF: the earliest time activity can finish LS: the latest time activity can start and not delay the project LF: the latest time activity can finish and not delay the project t: activity time

Project Management (專案管理) Deterministic Time Estimates - A Computing Algorithm Step 1: Determine and place in the brackets for each activity, the earliest starting time, ES, and the earliest finishing time, EF. Do this for all activities , beginning at the left side of the precedence diagram and moving into the right side. ES + t = EF Step 2: Setting the LF time of the last activity equal to the EF of that activity. Obtain the LS time by subjecting the activity time, t, from the LF time. Do this for all activities , beginning at the right side of the precedence diagram and moving into the left side. LS = LF - t Slack Time for each activity = LS - ES or LF - EF. The critical path using this computing algorithm is denoted by activities with zero slack time.

Project Management (專案管理) Probabilistic Time Estimates The probabilistic approach involves three time estimates for each activity instead of one: 1. Optimistic time (o) : The length of time required under optimum conditions. 2. Pessimistic time (p) : The length of time required under the worst conditions. 3. Most likely time (m) : The most probable amount of time required. The Beta distribution is generally used to describe the inherent variability in time estimates. For a Beta distribution, the following approximation for the mean and variance can be used

Project Management (專案管理) Probabilistic Time Estimates PERT makes the simplifying assumption that the mean and variance of project duration, Te and VT, are the sum of the means and variances of duration of activities along the critical path. (requires assumption of independent activity times) From central limit theory (CLT) we deduce that the distribution of the sum of n independent activities approaches the normal distribution as n growth large.

Project Management (專案管理) Probabilistic Time Estimates Ex: For the critical path (a) Calculate the probability of project completion by 47 days. (b) What is the 95% CI of the expect project completion date? Sol: (a) (b)

Project Management (專案管理) Time-Cost Trade-Offs Total Cost Cost Expected Indirect Cost Shorten Direct Expense Optimum Project Length

Project Management (專案管理) Time-Cost Trade-Offs Ex:Using the following information, develop the optimal time-cost solution. Assume that indirect project costs are $1000 per day. 6 10 2 a b f 5 9 c e 4 d