Use Survey to Improve the DFX Transit Model Hua Yang, NCTCOG Hong Zheng, NCTCOG Kathy Yu, NCTCOG

Outline 2014 transit on-board survey Comparison between model and survey Investigate specific line – TRE Access/egress time Some improvements Conclusion and future

Transit on-board survey 2014 Conducted by NCTCOG, DART, DCTA, and The T (FWTA) Encompassed all fixed-route transit services in the twelve county modeling area On-to-Off Survey recorded location where an individual rider boarded and alighted Onboard survey conducted as a personal interview collected one- way trip mode and locations; fare/payment information; and socio- economic and demographic information

Public Transportation Authority Service Area

On-Board Survey The purpose of this project is to gather updated travel behavior data from transit users in the Dallas / Fort Worth metropolitan area Number of routes: 196 Light rail, commuter rail, express bus, local bus, feeder bus, UNT Shuttles Number of records: 35,531weekday; 1,404 weekend Sample rate: 10% Response Rate: ~85% Total ridership: 262,145

On-Board Survey The final database includes the following: One-Way Trip Origin, Destination, Boarding Location and Alighting Locations Bus Routes/Rail Lines used in one-way trip Mode, Trip Purpose Fare – type of pass, duration of pass, reimbursement amount Person Demographics: Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, Employment Status, Student Status, Resident or Visitor, Drivers License Household Demographics: HH Income, HH Size, # Workers, # HH Vehicles

Statistics Ridership (all lines) 247,501 257,515 R^2 0.96 %RMSE 51% Survey Model Statistics Ridership (all lines) 247,501 257,515 R^2 0.96 %RMSE 51%

Overall data comparison

Overall data comparison THET 1 DART 486 DART 183 DART 428 DART 409 DART 400 DART 501 DART 350 Spur DART164 DART467 DART466

Geographical location Red: overestimate Blue: underestimate Possible reasons.

North Dallas Red: overestimate Blue: underestimate

South Dallas Red: overestimate Blue: underestimate

By agency Agency Survey total Model total R^2 %RMSE DART 110,328 121,106 0.59 64% THET 26,322 26,178 0.72 71% DCTA 2,583 3,021 0.33 66% RAIL 108,268 107,210 0.93 14%

DART

THET THET 1 Spur THET 6

By trip purpose (15%) (-13%) (28%)

By access mode of the trips Survey total Model total R^2 %RMSE Walk Access 188,362 178,044 0.88 77% Drive Access 59,139 79,471 0.95 187%

Walk access of the trips DART-Orange

Drive access of the trips

Rail, access mode of the trips Walk access underestimate Drive access overestimate Line Survey Model Walk access Drive access DART-Blue 14,527 8,557 8,719 10,513 DART-Green 14,961 9,109 13,093 15,913 DART-Orange 12,446 8,193 14,348 11,589 DART-Red 17,823 11,497 11,487 12,657 TRE 2,817 5,829 3,395 5,977

DART-Blue

Walk on at rail stations DART-Blue Downton

Dart-Green

Dart-Orange

Dart_Red

TRE

Investigate specific lines - TRE Trinity railway express Commuter rail Identify network issues In survey demand of a specific route is known Assign demand in TransCAD, and check whether the demand is assigned on the specific route Not all demand are assigned on the specific route Identify two types of errors 1). some riders are not assigned at all in the model 2). Some riders are assigned but on a different route

HBW walk access, BR network, Peak, TRE Assign TRE survey demand in the model Total demand: 210.28, not assigned 52.3, assigned 157.98 Reasons not assigned Reason for TRE-WA-PK not assigned Flow Total % Picked up by someone 10.38+5+1.97 17.35 33% Bike access 6.88+3.34 10.22 19.5% Connector issue 6.12+4.598+1.96+1.81+1.35+0.84 22.8 43.6% Access/egress time is more than 20 minutes 3.93+2.04 5.97 11.4% More than 3 transfers 1.08+0.98 2.06 4%   52.29 100%

Investigate why TRE users not choose TRE Assigned but not use TRE Table 1 TRE users assigned in the transit network without using TRE routes From node To node Number of path Flow Demand Survey 7064 41149 1 1.875138 1.88 Generalized cost on survey path is 21.4, shortest path is 13.01. 7607 7226 2 9.196822 9.20 Egress time is 20.79 minutes. Generalized cost on shortest path is 13.59. on TRE path is 14.92*0.151+7.347+21.09*0.151+10*0.151=14.287 8579 6431 0.98449 0.98 The survey route has 4 transfers. 40426 7349 17.76531 17.77   Total 29.82176 29.83

OD 2, 7607 to 7226 It takes DART 63 rather than TRE. One reason is that the egress time from TRE station to the destination node is more than 20 minutes. TRE station TRE station

OD 3, 8579 to 6431 If takes TRE, it will create more than 3 transfers

OD 4, 40426 to 7349 It takes DART_63 rather than TRE From “Medical/Market Center Station” to “Victory Station” always choose DART_49 rather than TRE There is a coding error that “Victory Station” is not coded in the transit stop

Summary Travel pattern issue: Coding issue Solution complex access and egress model, pick up by sb, bike, etc. Access, egress time maybe more than 20 minutes. Max transfer maybe more than 3 Sometimes take a route which is not with the least generalized cost Coding issue Connector issue Stop station is not reasonable Solution Resolve the connector issue Reassign stops in a reasonable way

Access/Egress time comparison Compare the access/egress time from the model to the on-board transit survey Identify possible issues that associated with the access/egress time therefore affect the ridership in the model Improve the model such that the access/egress time are more accurate

Methodology 12 68 146 162 Get walk time distribution from survey Question: how many blocks in the walk access for each person Assumption: Walk 5 mins for each block   1 block or less cover 90% trips 2 blocks or less cover 90% trips 3 blocks or less cover 90% trips 4 blocks or less cover 90% trips Transit lines 12 68 146 162

Methodology Get walk time distribution from model From survey get the production TSZs and its demand for each line Get location of transit stops Assign those transit demand from TSZ to bus stops Use GISDK run multiple shortest path module, minimize walk time Suppose all travelers from TSZ walk to the nearest bus stops This gets walk time distribution observed in the model Compare the walk time distribution with the survey

Result Walk time in the model is more than in the survey 1 block or less covers 90% trips 2 blocks or less covers 90% trips 3 blocks or less covers 90% trips 4 blocks or less covers 90% trips 5 blocks or less covers 90% trips 6 blocks or less covers 90% trips Survey 12 68 146 162 168 172 5 mins or less covers 90% trips 10 mins or less covers 90% trips 15 mins or less covers 90% trips 20 mins or less covers 90% trips 25 mins or less covers 90% trips 30 mins or less covers 90% trips Model 6 39 86 120

Improvement Check alignment, headway, stops, and travel time. Add approach link for TRE at Richarland, Centerport and Medical Center. Maximum access time change from 20 minutes to 30 minutes for mode 80 and 81.

Alignment change DART 404 add line 54042

Add stop TRE, Green and Orange lines add Victory station Green line adds Fair Park station DART 164, add several major stops

Walk access of the line for mode 80 and 81 Before After Survey walk access Model ridership walk access Diff(model-survey) DART - BLUE 7667 4231 -3436 5474 -2193 DART - GREEN 7439 4319 -3119 6094 -1345 DART - ORANGE 6369 4062 -2308 5733 -636 DART - RED 9403 4789 -4614 6075 -3328 TRE 1198 593 -605 1028 -170

TRE Richland becomes much better than before Centerport better but still underestimate Medical center, victory and union station underestimate

TRE walk access at stations

Results DART 164, add stops, walk access increase from 1172 to 2137, almost double; T6, add one stop, directed walk access increase from 1485 to 1598; T2, change alignment, drop from 1360 to 1180; Add approach and add stops can increase ridership significantly.

Conclusion Summary of 2014 transit on-board survey Overall comparison between the survey and model Comparison of route selection for few lines Access/egress time comparison Improvement of few lines

Future research

Walk on at rail stations DART-Blue Downton

Walk on at rail stations DART-Green Downton

Walk on at rail stations DART-Orange Downton

Walk on at rail stations DART-Red

Walk on at rail stations TRE