Overview of the Rapid Assessment protocol (Costing tool) Valerie Schmitt, Social Security Specialist, ILO DWT Bangkok Assessment National Dialogue No2 Bangkok, 30 Nov 2011

Assessment matrix including list of recommendations Assessment matrix completed in National Dialogue No1 Increase benefits or population covered, introduce new benefits On the management of existing schemes, review targeting & registration mechanisms, review the law, conduct research, conduct a tax reform… OK RAP Protocol Scenarios and assumptions validated in National Dialogue No2

From recommendations to scenarios The recommendation: “Design and implement cash transfers for all children aged 0-6” I translate this into two scenarios: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector Cash transfer for all children 0-6 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector

Assumptions to calculate the cost of the scenario TODAY Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector Number of children 0-3 years old 2,393,000 (2010) Date of completion of full coverage 2020 Take up rate (cumulative percentage of children covered) 60%...90%...100% Level of the child allowance (FS) 400 / month  4800 / year Administration costs 5%  TOTAL 60% * 2,393,000 * 4800 * 1.05

Assumptions to calculate the cost of the scenario TODAY Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector  TOTAL 60% * 2,393,000 * 4800 * 1.05 = 7,236,432,000 THB  In percentage of GDP  In percentage of Government Expenditure

Data needed to calculate the cost in the future Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector The number of children will change Need for Demographic projections Level of the child allowance (FS) will change with inflation Need for inflation forecasts Percentage of GDP and Government Expenditure Need for GDP and Government Expenditures forecasts

1- Data collection 2- Transformation of the recommendations into scenarios Calculation of the cost in 2011 of each scenario, Projection over the years of this cost, in THB, % Govt expenditure and % GDP

NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020 HISTORICAL DATA 2005-2010

NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020 Male/Female participation rates * Population per age group  Economically active population NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020 HISTORICAL DATA 2005-2010

Poverty line, minimum wage NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020 HISTORICAL DATA 2005-2010 Poverty line, minimum wage GDP at current price Inflation GDP: The value of a country's overall output of goods and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad.

 WE NEED THE DATA!!!

By 2020, the first scenario would cost 0.07 % of GDP

National dialogue # 2 Objectives: Validate the assumptions used for the RAP protocol Share the result of the costing Confirm the scenarios or propose new scenarios and cost them Train participants for the utilization of the costing tool

Take away message The RAP gives a first idea of “how much it would cost” to complete the SPF It tells us whether this is affordable or not It helps to decide whether or not we should implement the proposed scheme It can be completed with poverty impact analysis, and analysis of the impact on employment of some of the measures for working age population It needs to be completed by comprehensive feasibility studies