1. Designing scenarios and RAP model
Loveleen De and Katharina Bollig, ILO
Manila
2 June 2015

2. Agenda Where are we now? Steps of ABND Designing scenarios
Which recommendations to select?
Fixing the parameters
RAP model
Structure of RAP
Advantages and limitations
Workshop mechanics

3. Where are we now?

4. Step 1 – Assessment matrix
Steps of ABND
Step 1 – Assessment matrix
Step 2 – Cost estimation
Step 3 – Launch of the SPF

5. Steps of ABND 1. What is the existing situation?
2. What are the policy and implementation level gaps?
3. Recommendations to close the gaps
4. How much will it cost to implement until 2020?
5. Is it affordable?
6. Finalizing the ABND report
7. Launch of the SPF

6. Steps of ABND 1. What is the existing situation?
2. What are the policy and implementation level gaps?
3. Recommendations to close the gaps
6. Finalizing the ABND report
7. Launch of the national SPF
We are here
4. How much will it cost to implement until 2020?
5. Is it affordable?

7. Designing scenarios

8. ABND matrix SPF-1 Health SPF-2 Children SPF-3 Working age
SPF guarantees
SPOFS provisions
Existing schemes
Policy gaps
Recos
Imp issues
SPF-1 Health
Social insurance
Social welfare
Safety nets
LMIs
SPF-2 Children
SPF-3 Working age
SPF-4 Elderly

9. From Step 1 to Step 2 There are 2 types of recommendations
We can use the RAP model
Recommendations to introduce non-contributory benefits, increase non-contributory benefit amounts, extend coverage
Recommendations to introduce social insurance, improve coordination between schemes and operations, qualitative recommendations to improve quality of services
We need to conduct further studies
There are 2 types of recommendations

10. Which recommendations to select?√
‘Children’ guarantee
Expand the CCT programme to cover more households
Merge the CCT and scholarship programmes
Calculate the cost of a universal child allowance
Improve management and efficiency of the school feeding programme √

11. Which recommendations to select?
‘Working age’ guarantee
Explore the feasibility of introducing unemployment insurance, linked with employment services
Introduce a public employment programme for workers in the informal economy √

12. Framing scenarios ‘Children’ guarantee Recommendation Sample scenarios
Recommendation 1: Expand the CCT programme
Scenario 1: CCT to all poor households (not only very poor households) at the current benefit level
Scenario 2: CCT to all poor households (not only very poor households) with increased benefits
Recommendation 3: Introduce a universal child allowance programme
Scenario 1: Child allowance for all children at a specific benefit level

13. Framing scenarios ‘Working age’ guarantee Recommendation Scenario
Recommendation 2: Public employment programme for workers in the informal economy
Scenario 1: Establish a public works programme providing 50 days of work at the minimum wage per person per year

14. Fixing the parameters ‘Working age’ guarantee
Scenario 1: Establish a public works programme providing 50 days of work at the minimum wage per person per year
Benefit: Minimum wage (US$ 10 per day) for up to 50 days per year
Estimated beneficiaries: unemployed and underemployed informal economy workers + agricultural workers in the low season
Take-up rate: progressively grow from 0 to 100% over 5 years
Administrative costs: 10%

15. Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP) model

16. Structure of RAP 1. Input data Labour market (EAP)
Demographic data (POP)
1. Input data
General government operations (GGO)
Macroeconomic data (ECO)
Cost of benefits
2. Estimated
cost of benefits
PHP
% of GDP
% of govt expenses
Summary of results
3. Cost of SPF till 2020

17. RAP model
Example - SPF benefits as % of GDP in Thailand
1.2%
0.5%

18. Advantages and limitations of RAP
Shows the cost of the ‘nationally-defined SPF’ in a country
Provides a basis to initiate and facilitate national dialogue
Results are simplistic and indicative, and further actuarial studies are needed before designing a scheme

19. Workshop mechanics

20. Day 1: 2 June
Quiz Who wants to be a protectionnaire? – earning budget money in “Coresia”
Group activity on the RAP model for “Coresia” – using the RAP model to calculate the cost of the SPF within the national budget
Presenting the results of RAP to the Coresian government
Presentation of the RAP model for the Philippines – based on the initial draft prepared by ILO

21. Day 2: 3 June
Core Group discussion to decide the scenarios and parameters for the RAP model in the Philippines

22. Thank you