1. Assessment of Social Protection Schemes in Thailand – results and recommendations Valerie Schmitt Social Security Specialist, ILO DWT Bangkok Civil Society Forum on Social Protection Floor in Thailand 23 February 2012, Karnmanee Palace Hotel, Bangkok

2. Structure of the presentation Purpose and process of the Assessment Assessment matrix & recommendations Overview of the RAP protocol Next steps

3. The purpose of the assessment Answer to the questions: –Is there a SPF or some elements of the SPF in this country? –How far are we from the full implementation of the floor? –What should be done in order to close the SPF gap? –And how much it would cost? STEP 1 – Assessment Matrix STEP 2 - Costing STEP 3 – Finalization

4. The process of the Assessment 1.2 Validation of Assessment matrix & provision of Recommendations STEP 1 – Assessment Matrix JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEB MAR 10 Au10 Au 10 August STEP 2 - Costing 2.1 Translation of recommendations into “costable” scenarios 2.2 Data collection (I) on POP, ECO, EAP, parameters for each scenario and projection of the costs using the RAP protocol 2.3 Preliminary results of the costing 1.1 Inventory of schemes, gaps, issues 30 November 2.4 Data collection (II) on GGO, ECO and finalization of the costing 3.1 Writing assessment report 23 February 2.4 Recommendations from CSOs 3.2 Validation workshop 15 March STEP 3 – Finalization 3.3 Presentation to the Government? X

5. Structure of the presentation Purpose and process of the Assessment Assessment matrix & recommendations Overview of the RAP protocol Next steps

6. STEP 1 – Assessment matrix Assessment matrix 1. Stocktaking 2. Comparative Analysis 3. Gaps & issues 4. Recommen dations We then compare what exist with the SPF framework : * Has all the population access to health care and income security? * Are the benefits adequate? For each guarantee of the SPF we describe existing schemes, laws, regulations We identify policy gaps and implementation issues We draw recommendations and propose new social protection provisions All this information is captured in the ASSESSMENT MATRIX

7. Step 1 – Assessment matrix

8. Assessment of Health care Existing provisionsMain design gapsImplementation issues UCS (76%) SSO (15%) CSMBS (7% population) Compulsory Migrant Health Insurance for registered migrant workers (migrants under MOU or who have completed the National Verification Process are entitled to the SSS) Fragmented systems and laws Dependents are not covered by SSS Vertical inequality (same package UCS-SSS) Undocumented Migrant workers are not covered (they represent 2-3 Mo or 5% of the workforce) Inequity in access to ARTs (CSBMS vers. UCS) Confidentiality/stigma issues (HIV-AIDS) Exclusion from UCS (ethnic minorities, stateless) because of no ID or lack of information Geographic imbalances: poor availability of HC supply in some area, idem for HIV Exclusion of migrant workers from SSO because of non declaration by employer

9. Assessment of Health care The floor achieved for Health Care, although implementation issues remain Main recommendations:  Reduce fragmentation (the way the system is organized, financed, regulated)  Improve health care supply, HIV- sensitiveness of the whole system, Long Term care (aging society)  Ensure financial sustainability of the system  Introduce news measures such as the necessity to co-pay for non essential services Future work? HISRO/TDRI methodology to forecast health care expenditure and analyze fiscal space Organizational and legal reviews Feasibility study on long term care

10. Income security for children Existing provisionsMain design gapsImplementation issues Scholarships (civil servants, poor households, social activists) Free education for all (15 years) Child allowance introduced in 1998 for formal workers by Social Security Free school meals and other support in kind (bicycles…) Around 5-6 million children of informal workers do not receive adequate assistance – need to cover e.g. transportation costs Improve services for pre- school children (stimulation of child development) Limited access to children from migrant workers and ethnic communities in remote areas Regional disparities in quality of education, esp. in rural areas Leakages / corruption issues in food distribution Lack of information limiting access to services

11. Income security for children Need to establish a child allowance for all children 0-6, improve quality of education and care for pre-school children Main recommendations:  Design and implement a child allowance for all children 0-6 Future work? Costing with RAP protocol, HISRO and SSO models Feasibility study for the design and implementation  Add a family benefit under Benefit package for Article 40  Provide systematic financial/in kind support to poor students & children (and not ad hoc)  Improve the quality of the services (education, child care, services for mothers and children)

12. Income security for working age Existing provisionsMain design gapsImplementation issues Voluntary Insurance (art. 39): Sickness, maternity, invalidity, death, child allowance and old-age pension (432 THB/m) Compulsory insurance (art. 33): Sickness, maternity, invalidity, death, child allowance, old-age pension and unemployment under SSF // work injury under WCF Fragmented schemes  increased admin burden No portability between schemes Some categories of workers are excluded from Art 33 (ex. domestic workers) Package for informal economy workers not attractive Migrant workers have to leave 7 days after dismissal (no UI) and in case of disability Compliance issues: some employers collect the contributions for SSS but do not register their workers Voluntary Subsidized Insurance (art. 40- IE workers): 2 packages (i) sickness, invalidity, death (ii) Idem + old-age (lump sum)

13. Income security for working age Existing provisionsMain design gapsImplementation issues 500 baths transfer for people with disabilities from MSDHS administered at TAO level and life quality fund (in kind by providing equipment) Ad hoc support 500 baths transfer for people with HIV-AIDS from MoL administered at TAO level Funeral expenditure (MSDHS) 2000 Baths up to 3 times a year (on demand) - implemented by MSDHS Ad hoc support TVET Migrants excluded Not adapted to market needs

14. Main recommendations:  Review social assistance schemes in place to ensure income support to EA workers  Review existing schemes (Art 33 and 40) in order to cover more people, with more adequate benefits  Develop an objective and standardized poverty and vulnerability assessment system Future work? Design combined packages including income support and mechanisms to increase employability and/or access to markets Income security for working age Reduce exclusions under Art. 33 and 40 - Reduce social evasion Social assistance should be more predictable/less ad hoc Linkages between SP and employability need to be explored  Explore linkages between social protection with Employment to ensure graduation Feasibility studies on extension of existing schemes (Art 33 and 40) Explore the PEOPLE service at decentralized level Awareness raising

15. Income security for elderly Existing provisionsMain design gapsImplementation issues Voluntary insurance under Art 39 and Art 40 (package 2 – lump sum) Formal sector workers - SSF National Savings Fund (MoF) for Thai Nationals aged 15-60 not benefiting from government or SSF No portability across schemes Art 40: contribution not enough to guarantee income support Schemes with Lump sum: income support not guaranteed No indexation of the social pension in legislation Tax exemption does not benefit the poorest Difficult contribution to NSSF (income irregular) Universal Non contributory 500 THB scheme Civil servants - Government Pension Scheme, Provident Funds for State Owned enter- prises, Private Teacher Aid Fund Implementation of the 500 THB scheme politicized at TAO level Registration under schemes mainly possible in BKK and long admin procedures Ad hoc community volunteer care giver program (MSDHS)

16. Main recommendations:  Increase level of benefits to poverty line (at least) and index benefits  Establish long term care system  holistic care to the elderly  Legislate 500 THB scheme to ensure predictability Future work? Feasibility study on long term care Income security for elderly  Create a coherent pension system (& portability) and look at tax reform to ensure financial sustainability of the scheme Reform 500 THB scheme : increase level of benefits, legislate Improve coherence and portability between the schemes Look at Long Term care Costing of social pension at level of food poverty line + additional benefits depending on level of dependency

17. Take away message The Assessment matrix provides a snapshot of what exist for each of the four guarantees of the SPF For each guarantee, gaps and issues are identified This leads to the formulation of some policy recommendations – what should we do to improve the situation and complete the social protection floor? To decide whether we should push these recommendations we need to know: – (1) how much they cost? – (2) what will be their impact (on poverty, employment…)? – (3) where we will find the money? The RAP protocol can help us answering the first question (for some simple recommendations – not all of them)

18. Structure of the presentation Purpose and process of the Assessment Assessment matrix & recommendations Overview of the RAP protocol Next steps

19. Assessment matrix including list of recommendations On the management of existing schemes, review targeting & registration mechanisms, review the law, conduct research, conduct a tax reform… RAP Protocol Increase benefits or population covered, introduce new benefits OK

20. From recommendations to scenarios The recommendation: “Design and implement cash transfers for all children aged 0-6” I translate this into two scenarios: – Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector – Cash transfer for all children 0-6 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector

21. 2,393,000 (2010) 2020 60%...90%...100% 400 / month  4800 / year 5% 60% * 2,393,000 * 4800 * 1.05 Assumptions to calculate the cost of the scenario TODAY Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector Number of children 0-3 years old Date of completion of full coverage Take up rate (cumulative percentage of children covered) Level of the child allowance (FS) Administration costs  TOTAL

22. 60% * 2,393,000 * 4800 * 1.05 = 7,236,432,000 THB Assumptions to calculate the cost of the scenario TODAY Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector  TOTAL  In percentage of GDP  In percentage of Government Expenditure

23. Data needed to calculate the cost in the future Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector The number of children will change Level of the child allowance (FS) will change with inflation Need for Demographic projections Need for inflation forecasts Percentage of GDP and Government Expenditure Need for GDP and Government Expenditures forecasts

24. 1- Data collection 2- Transformation of the recommendations into scenarios Calculation of the cost in 2011 of each scenario, Projection over the years of this cost, in THB, % Govt expenditure and % GDP

25. HISTORICAL DATA 2005-2010 NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020

26. Male/Female participation rates * Population per age group  Economically active population HISTORICAL DATA 2005-2010 NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020

27. HISTORICAL DATA 2005-2010 NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020 GDP at current price Poverty line, minimum wage Inflation GDP: The value of a country's overall output of goods and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad.

28.  WE NEED THE DATA!!!

29. By 2020, the first scenario would cost 0.07 % of GDP

30. Take away message The RAP gives a first idea of “how much it would cost” to complete the SPF It tells us whether this is affordable or not It helps to decide whether or not we should implement the proposed scheme It can be completed with poverty impact analysis, and analysis of the impact on employment of some of the measures for working age population It needs to be completed by comprehensive feasibility studies and fiscal space analysis

31. Structure of the presentation Purpose and process of the Assessment Assessment matrix & recommendations Overview of the RAP protocol 

32. Next steps 1.2 Validation of Assessment matrix & provision of Recommendations STEP 1 – Assessment Matrix JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEB MAR STEP 2 - Costing 2.1 Translation of recommendations into “costable” scenarios 2.2 Data collection (I) on POP, ECO, EAP, parameters for each scenario and projection of the costs using the RAP protocol 2.3 Preliminary results of the costing 1.1 Inventory of schemes, gaps, issues 2.4 Data collection (II) on GGO, ECO and finalization of the costing 3.1 Writing assessment report 2.4 Recommendations from CSOs 3.2 Validation workshop STEP 3 – Finalization 3.3 Presentation to the Government? X 30 November 10 August 15 March 23 February