SHEEO Higher Education Policy Conference Minneapolis, MN AT THE COLLEGE DOOR Thursday, August 10, 2017 www.wiche.edu/knocking #Knocking2016

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates Public and Private High School Graduates Nation Four Geographical Regions 50 States and DC First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico Public by Race/Ethnicity

U.S. High School Graduates The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

U.S. Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2010-11 (Actual) through 2011-12 to 2031-32 (Projected) 302,168

Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected) Private

Converging Populations, 2013-14 to 2031-32 (52%) (48%) Only showing race/ethnicity for public school graduates (90% of total graduates)

Significant Regional Variation The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

Regional Divisions

Significant Regional Variation Total Public and Private High School Graduates, 2000-01 to 2031-32 1,352,600 SOUTH 862,000 776,820 WEST MIDWEST 647,036 NORTHEAST

Southern Region High School Graduates Compared to SY2012-13 (Thousands) 229 Hispanic 39 Asian/Pac. Isl. 12 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 268 Black 96 Private Schools 590 White +137K +99K +31K -5K -22K Asian/Pacific Islander -41K Private schools Private schools -46K

Western Region High School Graduates Compared to SY2012-13 (Thousands) 278 Hispanic 86 Asian/Pac. Isl. 14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 42 Black 54 Private Schools 356 White +65K +3K +2K -4K -8K -14K -37K -39K

Midwestern Region High School Graduates Compared to SY2012-13 (Thousands) 56 Hispanic 23 Asian/Pac. Isl. 4 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 88 Black 64 Private Schools 527 White +39K +22K +12K Thousands -9K -17K Black Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools -75K -82K

Northeastern Region High School Graduates Compared to SY2012-13 (Thousands) 76 Hispanic 37 Asian/Pac. Isl. 2 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 76 Black 84 Private Schools 365 White +45K +35K +17K Thousands -10K Hispanic Hispanic -25K Black Black Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Islander Black Private schools Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools -60K -94K

State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013- 2025 Nation: 4.7% See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.

State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013-2030 Nation: -4.0% See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.

Implications Nathan Evans Lauren Victor Chief of Staff and Senior Advisor, Academic and Student Affairs California State University Office of the Chancellor Lauren Victor Research and Policy Analyst Colorado Department of Higher Education

www.knocking.wiche.edu Report State Profiles Download Data

Top 10 States with a Majority of U.S. High School Graduates In 2013 From 2013 to 2025 From 2025 to 2032 CA 456,000 -25,000 -5% -37,000 -9% TX 314,000 61,000 19% -6,000 -2% NY 212,000 2,000 1% -14,000 -7% FL 176,000 17,000 10% -16,000 -8% IL 153,000 -10,000 -18,000 -13% PA 146,000 -4% -8,000 -6% OH 135,000 -12% -9,000 MI 111,000 -10% NJ 109,000 -12,000 NC 101,000 9,000 9% See pp. 22-23, 28-29 and Appendix A Data Tables of Knocking full report

www.wiche.edu/knocking #knocking2016 Want to Learn More? Demarée Michelau Vice President, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE dmichelau@wiche.edu Peace Bransberger Senior Research Analyst , Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE pbransberger@wiche.edu Sarah Leibrandt Research Analyst, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE sleibrandt@wiche.edu #knocking2016

College Enrollment of Traditional Age Students Black & Hispanic Rates Up 10% by 2014 from 1995, but Lag Whites by 5% Asian 65.4 62.5 52.9 Black 51.6 Hispanic NCES Digest of Education Statistics 2015. Percent of 16-24 year olds who completed HS in a given year enrolled in college by October of that year.

College Enrollment of Traditional Age Students Even Greater Variation by Income Upper 20% Middle 60% 62.5 Lower 20% NCES Digest of Education Statistics 2015. Percent of 16-24 year olds who completed HS in a given year enrolled in college by October of that year.

College Enrollment Projections to 2024 Total (Thousands) By Age Group (Thousands) NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

College Enrollment Projections to 2024 2010 to 2015 to 2019 2019 to 2024 All students -4% 7% 18 to 24 3% 4% 6% 25 or older -14% 12% 9% NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Increasingly Likely 1st Generation Students Children Age 5-17 by Parents’ Highest Level Educational Attainment, U.S., 2015 NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics From ACS data. Children grouped by child’s race/ethnicity.

Increasingly from Lesser Means Income Distribution of Households With Children, U.S., 2010-2014 Each bar segment is 20%, up to 95% Medians  All Households  HHs with children American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates

United States High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, Compared to SY 2012-13 (Thousands) 640 Hispanic 184 Asian/Pac. Isl. 32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 474 Black 298 Private Schools 1,839 White +151 White +58 -9 Hispanic -34 Black Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools -252