1. The Future of High School Graduates in Montana
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Wednesday August 9, 2017
#Knocking2016

2. Agenda Brief Introduction to WICHE
Data and Trends from Knocking at the College Door
Western Undergraduate Exchange

3. What is WICHE?

4. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - WICHE
An interstate compact formed 65 years ago

5. What WICHE Does
Promotes access and excellence in higher education for all citizens of the West through:
Regional collaboration
Resource sharing
Sound public policy
Innovation

6. Knocking at the College Door

7. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates
Public and Private High School Graduates
Nation
Four Geographical Regions
50 States and DC
First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico
Public by Race/Ethnicity

8. U.S. High School Graduates
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

9. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
3.25M

10. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
Private

11. Converging Populations, 2013-14 to 2031-32
(52%)
(48%)
Only showing race/ethnicity for public school graduates (90% of total graduates)

12. United States High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, Compared to SY 2012-13 (Thousands)
640 Hispanic
184 Asian/Pac. Isl.
32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
474 Black
298 Private Schools
1,839 White
+151
White
+58 -9
Hispanic
-34
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
-252

13. Significant Regional Variation
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

14. Regional Divisions

15. Significant Regional Variation, Total Public and Private High School Graduates, 2000-01 to 2031-32
1,352,600
SOUTH
862,000
776,820
WEST
MIDWEST
647,036
NORTHEAST

16. The West Tracks the National trend 30% of the Nation’s graduates
Cedes position as #1 producer of Hispanic graduates to the South by 2025, but remains #1 producer of Asian/Pacific Islander graduates

17. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
862,031
789,092
666,730

18. West Region High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, Compared to SY 2012-13 (Thousands)
278 Hispanic
86 Asian/Pac. Isl.
14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
42 Black
54 Private Schools
356 White
+65K
+3K
+2K
-4K
-8K
-14K
-37K
-39K

19. Montana Continued Declines, Followed by Recovering Growth
Increasingly Diverse Graduating Classes

20. Total Montana Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
ACTUAL

21. Total Montana Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
11,171
10,536
9,666
Private

22. Montana’s Projected Non-White High School Graduates, 2013-14 to 2031-32
HISPANIC

23. Montana High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, Compared to SY 2012-13
281 Hispanic
129 Asian/Pac. Isl.
748 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
66 Black
297 Private Schools
9,369 White
+630
+624
+382
+46
-327

24. Montana High School Enrollments, 2000-2028

25. Montana High School Enrollments, 2000-2028

26. Montana High School Enrollments, 2000-2028

27. First-Time Freshman at Montana Postsecondary Institutions, 2006-2014

28. Montana Household Income by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2014

29. Montana Education Attainment for Adults by Race and Ethnicity, 2014

30. Questions

31. Western Undergraduate Exchange

32. Regional tuition-reciprocity agreement that enables a student from a WICHE state to enroll in participating two-or four- year public institutions located in another WICHE state, and pay only 150 percent of the enrolling institution’s resident tuition.

33. Western Undergraduate Exchange
Student pays 150% of resident tuition, or less
No money exchanged between states
AY2016: 38,300+ students
160 public institutions: 2-year and 4-year
Multilateral exchange; no “balance” required
Western states balance enrollment demand by sharing seats that might otherwise go empty

34. WUE Savings for Students in the West, 2012-2016

35. WUE Implementation Strategies
21% of WUE institutions use WUE as a merit discount
56% automatically award the WUE rate
89% offer the WUE rate to transfer students
1% require WUE recipients to demonstrate financial need
Most popular states for WUE recruitment: CA, CO, OR, WA
Available majors
72% of WUE institutions make all majors WUE eligible; 24% make most of them available.

36. WUE Admissions Options
WUE Applicant Considerations
WUE Application Deadlines
WUE Award Caps
Manage which majors are available to WUE students
Admission Requirements for WUE students (i.e. GPA, ACT/SAT)

37. Institutional Benefits of WUE
“WUE” is synonymous with quality and VALUE
Increase your visibility in the West
Diversify your student body
Fill your student housing capacity
Maximize your enrollment in non-impacted programs
Matriculate high-achievers: Excellent retention & completion rates
Attract students who otherwise couldn’t afford out-of-state study
Make Montana an affordable option for students who can’t get their best program fit at any of their home state institutions

38. WUE Net Migration, Fall 2016 State In Out Net Flow Alaska 528 1,165
637
OUT
Arizona
7,518
1,632
(5,886) IN
California
719
17,515
16,796
Colorado
4,383
2,730
(1,653)
CNMI - 54
Guam 30
Hawaii
2,507
2,205
(302)
Idaho
1,932
1,789
(143)
Montana
2,760
931
(1,829)
Nevada
4,561
1,640
(2,921)
New Mexico
1,060
650
(410)
North Dakota
2,083
462
(1,621)
Oregon
2,987
1,417
(1,570)
South Dakota
1,806
506
(1,300)
Utah
1,523
942
(581)
Washington
2,407
3,468
1,061
Wyoming
1,543
1,181
(362)
TOTAL
38,317

39. WUE Migration, Fall 2016
2,760 WUE Students Attending Montana Institutions & 931 Montana Residents Attending WUE Institutions

40. Montana Residents & WUE: Where Are They Going?
Top Destinations for Outbound MT WUE students:
Northwest College, WY (157)
Welding (19); Commercial Photography (15); Allied Health (10); Agribusiness (10)
Sheridan College, WY (63)
Dental hygiene (14)
Minot State U, SD (56)
Business (8); Criminal Justice (8); RN/Nursing (7)
Black Hills State U, SD (46)
Sports & Fitness Admin (9); Elementary Ed/Teaching (6)

41. Montana Residents & WUE: What are They Studying?
TOP Majors for Outbound MT WUE students:
General Studies (83)
Business (34)
Liberal Arts Studies (31)
Elementary Ed (30)
Registered Nursing (27)
Biology; Welding (24 each)

42. WUE Students Studying in Montana, 2016
2,760 WUE students enrolled
12 public Montana institutions participate
Top Inbound WUE Majors:
Mechanical Engineering (174)
General Studies (146)
Biology/bio sciences (130)
Business Admin. & Management (105)
Wildlife, Fish & Wildlands Science & Management (77)

43. Montana WUE Facts, 2016 Washington (683) California (413)
TOP 5 recruitment states for Montana WUE:
Washington (683)
California (413)
Colorado (385)
Idaho (357)
Oregon (222)

44. Projections of High School Graduates in Key Montana Recruitment States, 2012-13 to 2031-32
WASHINGTON
CALIFORNIA
71,800 on average
Non-White  10% to 41% of Total
426,400 on average, 14% by ‘32 Non-White  5% to 74% of Total

45. Projections of High School Graduates in Key Montana Recruitment States, 2012-13 to 2031-32
COLORADO
IDAHO
58,000 on average
Non-White  2% to 38% of Total
21,000 on average
Non-White  8% to 26% of Total

46. Projections of High School Graduates in Key Montana Recruitment States, 2012-13 to 2031-32
OREGON
WYOMING
36,500 on average, 7% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 30% of Total
6,200 on average
Non-White  5% to 19% of Total

47.
Report
State Profiles
Download Data

48. For More Information AT THE COLLEGE DOOR Colleen Falkenstern
Research Coordinator, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE
Margo Colalancia
Director, Student Exchange, WICHE