National Association of Governmental Labor Officials Labor Force Outlook: 2014-24 Mitra Toossi Employment Projections Program National Association of Governmental Labor Officials July 26, 2016

Projections Uses Career counselors and students making career choice decisions Jobseekers looking to switch occupations Education and training officials making decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

Employment Projections Process Industry Final Demand Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners Industry Output Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables Industry Employment Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment Occupational Employment Job openings due to growth & replacement needs Aggregate Economy GDP, total employment, and major demand categories Labor Force Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity The BLS projections are developed in a series of six steps- Size and demographic composition of the labor force The labor force is the number of people working or looking for jobs. The growth of the aggregate economy A macroeconomic model is used to project Gross Domestic Product, consumer spending, investment, government spending, imports and exports, and other major economic measures. Final demand by industry sector The projected final demand categories are disaggregated to project the final demand, in sales to consumers, for each industry sector. Industry output Input-Output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to determine the relationships between industries and project the output that will be needed from each industry to satisfy the final demand from the previous step, including outputs which are used by other industry sectors as an input towards satisfying their final demand. Industry employment The BLS models industry employment as a function of industry output, wages, prices, and time. Together with the industry output projections, employment results provide a measure of labor productivity. BLS analysts examine the implied growth rates in projected productivity for consistency with historical trends. At the same time, analysts attempt to identify industries that may deviate from past behavior because of changes in technology or other factors. Where appropriate, changes to the employment estimates are made by modifying either the employment demand itself or the results from earlier steps in the projections process. Occupational employment Occupational demand is projected by applying each industry’s unique staffing pattern to industry employment projections. BLS analysts consider changes in technology, business practices, and other factors to determine how staffing patterns may change over the projection decade. Occupational replacement needs are also projected to help determine the total number of job openings expected to be available in each occupation. 3 3

The Labor Force – What is Projected? We project the labor force for the following age, sex, race and ethnic categories: By 17 age groups By 2 sex groups By 1 ethnic and 4 race groups A total of more than 136 age, sex, race and ethnic categories LFPRs are calculated for the overall, as well as by various age, sex, race and ethnic groups. Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Race Categories from 2000 Census: White (only  no other race) Black (only  no other race) Asian (only  no other race) All other groups: Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders American Indian & Alaska Natives All persons reporting more than one Race Hispanic (of any race) Non-Hispanic (of any race) White non-Hispanic Employment Outlook: 2004-14

The Labor Force Based on Two Factors: Labor Force = Population *LFPR Population data from Census Bureau by age, sex, race and ethnicity. Labor force participation rate data from Current Population Survey by age, sex, race and ethnicity. Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Number of Live Births, 1920-2014 Millions of births Baby boomers Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Immigration to U.S. Millions of immigrants Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Demographic Trends in 2014-24 Slower growth of the U.S. population Declining birth rates Lower levels of immigration Population aging

What is up with Labor Force Participation Rates? Overall LFPR has been declining since 2000. LFPR has been declining for men from 1940s. LFPR of women peaked in 1999 & declining. LFPR has been declining for youth since 1990. LFPR declining for prime age groups.(1996). LFPR increasing for 50+ age groups. (1996). However, LFPR for 55+ is half of prime age group. Declining participation rates for different race and ethnic groups, even Hispanics and Asians with highest participation rates.

Labor Force Participation Rate, 1948-2016 Percent Total, 16 years and over NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey. Additional adjustments to population controls were incorporated into the data in January of various years. These changes can affect comparability with data for prior periods. Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, 1948-2016 Percent Adult men Adult women Teenagers Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Labor Force Participation Rates for 25- to 54-Year-Olds by Sex, 1948-2016 Percent Men, 25 to 54 years Women, 25 to 54 years Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population. Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex for 55-Years-and-Older Age Group, 1948-2016 Percent Men, 55 years and over Women, 55 years and over Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted. NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey. Additional adjustments to population controls were incorporated into the data in January of various years. These changes can affect comparability with data for prior periods. . Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Labor Force Participation Rates by Race and Ethnic Origin, 1973-2016 Percent White Hispanic Asian Black or African American SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Labor Force Participation Rates for 25 and over Age Group by Educational Attainment, 1992-2016 Percent Bachelor’s degree and higher Some college or associate degree High school graduates, no college Less than a high school diploma Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Population and Labor force, 1950 Baby boomers Men Women 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 12 10 8 6 4 2 Millions Age Labor force Population Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Population and Labor force, 2000 Baby boomers 12 10 8 6 4 2 Millions Age Labor force Population 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Men Women Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Population and Labor force, Projected 2050 Baby boomers Men Women 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Millions Age Labor force Population 12 10 8 6 4 2 Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Population and Labor Force Grows Millions of persons 2004 2014 Projected 2024 2004 2014 Projected 2024

Population Growth Rate Slows Annual rates of change

Labor Force Participation Continues to Decline Percent Men Total Women

The Labor Force is Aging Percent distribution

Participation Declines for Youth and Increases for Older Adults

The Older Labor Force Age Groups Increases the Most Thousands of persons

The Older Labor Force Age Groups Grows the Fastest Percent change projected 2014-24 Total labor force growth= 5.0%

The Labor Force Share of Whites Declines

The Labor Force Share of Non-Hispanics Declines

The Labor Force Grows More Diverse Percent change projected 2014-24

Evaluation of Labor Force Projections BLS labor force projections are comparable to CBO and SSA projections Labor force evaluations done in 1980, 1985,1990,1995,2000 Evaluation of 1996-2006 BLS labor force & employment projections published in 2010 Evaluation of the 2006-2010 labor force, macro economy and industry employment projections published in 2015 Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Demographic Changes Projected slowdown in the population Projected slowdown of labor force growth Retirement of the baby boom generation Projected decline in the participation rates Increasing diversity of the U.S. workforce Immigration has been increasing since 1950s, however, growth is slowing down Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Meeting The Challenge Increases in LFPR of older workers Increases in LFPR of women Continued increases in labor productivity Upgrading the skills of the U.S. workforce through education and training Immigration Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Mitra Toossi Employment Projections program www. bls. gov/emp Toossi Mitra Toossi Employment Projections program www.bls.gov/emp Toossi.Mitra@bls.gov 202-691-5721