1. RTWBC Presentation
March, 2017

2. Baby boomers are indeed retiring in large numbers
Source: U.S. Census

3. The labor market is getting tighter
“Race against the machine” published
First KBI
Note: Shaded areas represent recessions.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBO

4. Very weak growth in working age population is projected for the next 15 years Annual growth rate in the working-age population (18-64) and its contributing factors
Annual percent change Forecast
Source: The Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board

5. Time to fill a position much higher than pre-recession highs: time to adjust requirements?
Note: Shaded areas represent recessions.
Sources: DHI Group, Bureau of Labor Statistics

6. More workers are quitting
Note: Shaded areas represent recessions.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7. The trend in wages will keep moving higher
Note: Shaded area represents a recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8. The Conference Board’s Labor Shortage Index is a tool for comparing the risk of labor shortages in the coming decade across occupations: Three sub-indexes:
Demand/Supply Gap
Projected employment growth
Projected replacement (retirement)
Projected new entrants
Education and Skills
Average years of education
Typical years of education required
Typical year of experience required
Typical years of on-the-job training required
Measure of occupational skill
Flexibility
Probability of offshoring
Percent teleworking
Probability of computerization
Measure of occupational certification
Percentage of workers who are immigrants
Percentage of workers who are part time
In addition: higher unionization share lowers risk of shortages

9. Risk of labor shortages by occupation
Health related jobs are at the highest risk
Ageing and healthcare reform leading to rapid growth
Skilled trade labor at a high risk
Large number of retirements
and few new entrants
Large variation in the risk of shortages in STEM occupations
High risk of shortages in mathematical jobs
Shortages are expected in computer jobs but some offsetting factors:
Relatively small retirement rate in computer jobs
Many new entrants
Many immigrants
High flexibility in computer jobs – teleworking, offshoring, no certification needed
Labor shortages are a bigger issue in labor intensive industries

10. Preparing for the coming storm: What employers can do
Anticipate retirement of older workers
Evaluate future labor market conditions by Occupation and location and adjust policies
Location related solutions
Relocate if necessary
Offshoring
Remote working and Teleworking
Contingent workers and ‘gig economy’ platforms
Tapping untapped pools of workers
Immigrants
Older workers delaying retirement
Underutilized workers

12. Disability rates among those under 65 are highest in states that specialize in declining industries like coal mining
Share of population under 65 who are not in the labor force due to disability
Sources: Current Population Survey, calculations by The Conference Board

13. Steady increase in the share of teleworkers

14. Some jobs could easily be done remotely