LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGY IN POLAND BACKGROUND AND PERSPECTIVE Zbigniew Kamieński (independent expert) Andrzej Kassenberg (Institute for Sustainable Development) The Second REC-Japan Seminar on Low Carbon Technologies At the Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) October 11–12 2016, Szentendre, Hungary

Where Poland is today? Poland is on the way to fulfil development gap with western Europe; GDP is 69% of EU average but in 1990 it was 33%; Structure of Polish economy has changed; agriculture ↓ , industry ↓ , service ↑ Middle income trap is the challenge;

Where Poland is today? Emission of GHG decrease 35% between 1988–2014 but in the road transport increase two times; Political and business elites see EU climate policy as a risk for economy.

GHG emissions 2050 by independent think-tanks Source: 2050.pl. The Journey to the Low-emission Future. Edited by M. Bukowski. Warsaw Institute for Economic Studies, Institute for Sustainable Development, European Climate Foundation. Warsaw 2013

Approach to GHG emission reduction by former government document Low-emission transformation is an opportunity for growth – not a burden for the economy; Not ecological, but economic programme; Identification of all activities with potential in terms of low-emission economy – only cost effective activities included; New areas (earlier neglected) with high economic potential were identified; 44% GHG reduction in 2050 compared to the 1990 level.

Low carbon economy elements in current government draft strategy document Electromobility programme; Eco-Construction programme; Diversify energy generation sources with local energy independence; Appreciating the opportunities for development of local energy distribution, development of micro- installations using renewable energy sources; Co-generation of electricity and heat;

Low carbon economy elements in current government draft strategy document Reduce material and energy intensity of industry; Reduce transport needs specially in the cities; Supporting ecological transport, including public transport in cities and railways; Proposals emphasizing the need to strengthen local markets, such as food markets including organic farming and processes.

Dilemmas faced by Poland How to speed up low-carbon transformation in Poland? Coal based energy sector vs. renewable one; What kind of energy mix need to be in the middle of the XXI century? Energy efficiency targets are not ambitious enough, how could it be? What can be done to take advantage of this opportunity? Traditional mobility vs. sustainable one. How to strengthen the pro-ecological transport solutions? How eco-innovation could play a more important role in the future development?

Opportunity for low-carbon technology – energy sector Big opportunity (?) for energy from wind farms (including offshore) and photovoltaic with energy storage; Make communities and districts self-sufficient in terms of energy supply with important role of prosumers (RES and energy efficiency); Power produced in highly-efficient cogeneration; Limiting the losses in power transmission and distribution networks; Development of smart grids and smart metering; Natural gas as a transition fuel from coal-based generation to renewable energy sources.

Opportunity for low-carbon technology – transport Develop inter-modal transport by constructing modern terminals; Preparation of attractive offering of rail freight services; Improving passenger services in rail including integration with other transport modes; Pushing individual car transport out of the cities and replacing it with public transport, bicycles – eco-mobility chains; Electro-mobility – Polish electric vehicles, including buses for city public transport; Use CNG on a large scale as vehicle fuel; Strengthening local markets, particularly, food markets.

Opportunity for low-carbon technology – construction sector and buildings 30–35% energy can be saved as total; 72% of individual houses almost un-insulated; 69% houses heated by coal-fired boilers (very low standard, very bad quality coal) – new regulation soon will be in place; Make the standards even stricter – minimum 25 kWh/m2 per year; Public houses still is opportunity for improvement; Greater development of local markets – materials and energy efficiency services.

Opportunity for low-carbon technology – industry 7% of GDP is generated in energy-intensive industries, including steel industry, cement, paper and chemical industries – modern ones; Low-carbon transformation will take place by increasing its role in the global supply chain; Improvement of management – LCA, carbon footprint; Promoting new business models conducive to the development of circular economy.

Opportunity for low-carbon technology – agriculture Introducing more effective methods of protecting agricultural land; Supporting proper management of agricultural soil; Increasing the role of agricultural advisory services; Introduction of agri-climatic programmes for farmers; Rural areas as a producer of renewable fuel and renewable energy; Supporting organic farming and local food markets.

Opportunity for low-carbon technology – forestry Forests and forest-based raw materials for green economy or bio-economy; Wood is an excellent construction material for furniture and other products – natural CO2 sequestration; Wood and wood waste can be used for energy generation only on a local scale; Forest as a CO2 sequestration solution.

Thank you for your attention! Andrzej Kassenberg (Institute for Sustainable Development) a.kassenberg@ine-isd.org.pl www.ine-isd.org.pl www.chronmyklimat.pl Nabielaka St. 15 suite 1 00-743 Warsaw, Poland Phone (48-22) 8510402 Fax. (48-22) 8510400 Zbigniew Kamieński (Independent expert) z.kamienski@gmail.com