Where next for infrastructure and vehicles Where next for infrastructure and vehicles? Autonomous transport and casualty reduction Road Safety Behaviour Symposium Coventry 14 – 15 March 2017 Pete Thomas Professor of Road and Vehicle Safety Safe and Smart Mobility Research Cluster

Loughborough University research areas Accident Analysis and vehicle safety Human Factors and driving trials Intelligent Mobility Digital Engineering and Test Centre Big data analysis and visualisation Autonomous vehicles Multi-modal Real-world traffic analysis and use-cases Alternative Fuels Transport Impacts

Presentation Connected and automated mobility technologies are fast arriving – how can we get the best safety value? What are the problems we should avoid? What are the implications for road user behaviour?

Future mobility Complete safety Achieve vision zero The way forward for casualty reduction Crashes will be obsolete Fernando Livschitz of Black Sheep Films 

National mobility priorities Andrew Jones, Road Safety Minister. Dec 2015 Road safety is a matter of national importance…..The government is committed to investing in national road safety. Human error is reported to be a factor in 94% of road collisions, so driverless cars have huge potential to improve road safety KPMG report to SMMT – 2,500 deaths and 25,000 serious injuries prevented between 2014 - 2030 …………………………but how will this happen?

Existing safety priorities Urban safety technologies to prevent pedestrian, car occupant, PTW and cyclist crashes Rural roads – car occupants and PTW riders Improving M’way safety, while valuable, does not address the most common groups of casualties.

ERTRAC technology deployment roadmap Highway technologies Parking technologies European Road Transport Research Advisory Council

Crash avoidance technologies Anti-lock braking Electronic stability control Autonomous Emergency braking (City, inter-urban) Lane keeping/change ……. ESC – 17% reduction in accidents ABS – 2% reduction in accidents AEB city – 38% reduction in relevant accidents

Increasing automation Urban mobility Low speed, high automation Cyber cars Automated buses Private vehicles Higher speeds, progressively higher automation Based on existing technologies (ABS, ESC, LDW, LKA, FCW, ACC etc.) https://wepods.nl Renault 

Growing the driverless fleet Today High penetration of driverless vehicles Level 4 Driverless vehicles sometimes human driven Highly managed mobility Mature technologies Increasing penetration of ADAS Level 1 – 4 vehicles Some driving conditions Less experienced road users Improving technologies Fleet penetration Conventional technologies Regular drivers 0%

Automation today and tomorrow Electronic stability control Emergency braking systems Autonomous emergency braking Including VRU detection Lane support systems Blind spot detection Intelligent Speed adaptation Individual systems already effective Intervening when humans are unable Tomorrow Emergency steering Cooperative systems Intersection management VRU detection Vehicles integrated with traffic management AV as part of integrated and managed mobility provision Complete door to door journeys mean No speeding crashes No alcohol crashes No risky driving No fatigue No distraction …………………….amongst users of AV

Monitoring deployment How can we monitor their introduction properly to inform further development? Measuring accident reductions when vehicles are equipped with new systems Measuring how systems perform in normal use What is the real-world safety benefit of autonomous systems? What levels of automation give us the greatest societal benefit? Impact on Safety Mobility Environment

What are the limitations of new systems ? How do they compare to the human? There are currently 1 deaths per 280 million vehicle km in GB, 1 serious injury for every 19 million km and 1 minor crash every 1.4 million km Human drivers are very safe – how do automatic systems compare?

Reducing existing risks What is safety? Reducing existing risks Use of new technologies to reduce existing road risks Avoiding new risks Avoiding the introduction of new risks from ADAS and automated vehicle systems

Potential introduced risks Transfer of control Situational awareness ‘limp to safety mode’ Interactions with other road users System resilience to unanticipated behaviour Progressive de-skilling of drivers Limitations of functionality Validation and verification

Other human factors challenges How are CAV systems used in real driving? How do we maximise consumer acceptance of automated systems? What are the implications for driver training and rules of the road? How do we design AV systems that are supportive for all road users? How can we design systems that compensate for human limitations and do not introduce new risks?

Takeaway thoughts Prioritisation of automation technologies to reduce existing road risks Improve our understanding of human factors relating to driverless technologies Evaluate technologies that provide greatest benefit Monitor the roll-out of ADAS and autonomous systems to measure the real- world effect Actively promote the safest mobility environment

Short course – road safety management Loughborough 11 – 12 April 2017 Safe system approach to road safety Links Programme Register safesystem@lboro.ac.uk

Pete Thomas Professor of Road and Vehicle Safety p.d.thomas@lboro.ac.uk Safe and Smart Mobility Research Cluster Loughborough University Leicestershire LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1509 226931