Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips Purpose: Provide context for a new OPC-SAT Working Group to write a Statewide Ocean and Coastal “Roadmap” Report to inform California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment. I am Jennifer Phillips, Policy Advisor for the Ocean Protection Council - I manage OPC’s programmatic areas related to ocean acidification and hypoxia, and climate adaptation. I joined the OPC in 2015 in the West Coast Panel’s last year in order to build the OPC’s OA program to respond to the Panel’s recommendations and actions. I also serve as the OPC’s liaison to the State’s efforts to develop climate change adaptation plans and policies, which is why we’re here today. The purpose of my presentation is to provide some background and context for our new request for Ocean Science Trust to convene a new OPC-SAT Working Group to write a Statewide Ocean and Coastal “Roadmap” Report to inform CA’s 4th Climate Assessment.

Adaptation Planning in two main steps: Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips Adaptation Planning in two main steps: The Science: Assess impacts across sectors and regions. The Policy: Develop and update a Statewide Adaptation Plan. I want to start with some background on adaptation planning in California, and how science is applied. Apologies for those that know all of this already, but it is essentially a two-step process: The Science: We assess impacts across all sectors (e.g., transportation, natural resource, coast and ocean etc.) and regions of the State. The Policy: We then update our policies in a statewide adaptation plan based on the newest science.

Deep process involved: Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips Deep process involved: State Decision-makers: Interagency effort to write Adaptation Plans. Local Decision-makers: Plans must be relevant at multiple scales. Scientific Community: Many scientists engaged in research projects. The Public: We incorporate public input and comment. Now that was a truly basic summary - as there is much deep process involved that is too much to get into here in terms of setting each of these components into motion: State Decision-makers: It is a major interagency effort to both coalesce around key science needs and write the adaptation plans. Local Decision-makers: We coordinate closely with local decision-makers, as our plans must be useful at multiple scales. The Scientific Community: Many scientist (including some here today) are engaged in doing the research projects that then feed into the adaptation plans. The Public: Our adaptation plans also take into account public input via public meetings and formal public comment periods.

Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips Status: Safeguarding California: Current plan that was just updated. 4th Climate Assessment: Research projects now underway through 2017. New science and synthesis projects. Funded projects and external projects. Where we’re at now: The most current adaptation plan is called Safeguarding California: 2017 Update. It actually just came out 2 weeks ago for public comment. And in terms of new science, we are currently in the middle CA’s 4th climate assessment, with a wide array of interdisciplinary research projects that will be completed this year. To spend a few minutes on the science as it pertains to ocean and coast: There is new science and synthesis projects that are brought to bear on our adaptation plans. There funded projects (based on an RFP written by the State) and external projects that can be submitted to the Assessment.

Funded Projects Author(s) Assessing and Communicating the Impacts of Climate Change on the California Coast Patrick Barnard, USGS Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise Sarah Newkirk, TNC California Mussels as Bio-Indicators of the Ecological Consequences of Global Change: Temperature, Ocean Acidification, and Hypoxia Brian Gaylord, Tessa Hill, USD Jenn Phillips And while I’m not going to walk through each project - AND some of the PI’s are here today, not all were able to join - here’s a snapshot: These projects should be completed by the end of 2017. In the past, funded projects for ocean and coast have focused heavily on the impacts of SLR on infrastructure, but starting with the 4th Assessment, that started and should continue to expand.

External Projects Author(s) Multi-Scale Infrastructure Interactions with Intermittent Disruptions: Coastal Flood Protection Infrastructure, Transportation, and Government Networks Mark Stacey, UCB, Bruce Riordan, Climate Readiness Institute Strategies for Adapting to Long-term Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area Kristina Hill, UCB, Bruce Riordan, Climate Readiness Institute The Role of California State Agencies in Facilitating Local Adaptation to Sea Level Rise Hilda Blanco, USC Assessment of the State of Coastal Adaptation in California-- The 2016 Update Susanne Moser, Research & Consulting Jenn Phillips And while I’m not going to walk through each project - AND some of the PI’s are here today, not all were able to join - here’s a snapshot: These projects should be completed by the end of 2017. In the past, funded projects for ocean and coast have focused heavily on the impacts of SLR on infrastructure, but starting with the 4th Assessment, that started and should continue to expand.

To strengthen the 4th Assessment: Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips To strengthen the 4th Assessment: Regional “Assessment” Reports. Statewide Ocean and Coastal Report. The Reports should: Synthesize the most cutting edge science. Support science-based solutions. Identify knowledge gaps and science needs. So that brings us to where we are now: the State is calling for “regional assessment reports,” including a Statewide Ocean and Coastal Report. At the Ocean and Coastal Report should essentially: Synthesize the most cutting edge science on impacts across species, ecosystems, and human communities. This in part means you would take into account the current 4th Climate Assessment projects (both funded and external), but you are not limited to that! And part of why we are here today is because of some of the additional great work happening among current and previous OPC-SAT Working Groups that can inform this. Recommend science-based solutions to inform ecological and social resilience planning. Identify priority knowledge gaps and science needs to advance the State’s ongoing adaptation research agenda.

CA Pacific Ocean “Region” For the regional reports, we’ve divided the State into 8 terrestrial regions, including several along the coast. For each region there will be a team of scientists and practitioners writing a report that synthesizes the science related to impacts from climate change and potential solutions to promote resilience across all sectors (e.g., natural resources, water, land use etc). And part of why it’s important to be aware of the regional reports is that we will have to balance in the ocean and coastal report potential overlap in issues. For example, coastal regions will also consider sea-level rise in coastal areas. CA Pacific Ocean “Region”

Ocean and Coastal Report produced by: Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips Ocean and Coastal Report produced by: An OPC-SAT Working Group convened by Ocean Science Trust. Co-Chairs are lead authors, Ocean Science Trust are coordinating authors, and 6 to 8 interdisciplinary co-authors. Completed by the fall early summer of 2018. Then for the Statewide Ocean and Coastal Report, we are requesting: An OPC-SAT Working Group, convened by Ocean Science Trust, to work with us (OPC) to write it. The Chair or Co-Chairs would serve as lead authors, Ocean Science Trust as coordinating authors, then roughly 6 to 8 additional members to serve as co-authors. The Working Group should be interdisciplinary, and consider including decision-makers. For timing, you are in at the ground level. As mentioned, the 4th Climate Assessment projects should be completed by the end of 2017, and we aim to have the regional reports and the ocean and coast report by fall of 2018

Insights on what we’re looking for: Setting the Stage: California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment and Request Jenn Phillips Insights on what we’re looking for: State goals are evolving, and science should also inform that. Less synthesis and more roadmap. We care about ecological and social resilience. We need a holistic picture. Our panelists will also dive more into this, but I want to end with providing some initial insight on what we’re looking for in the ocean and coastal report: Our goals in the State for this report are evolving and will continue to in the course of this process, and we want the science to inform that. We want less of a synthesis and more of a roadmap. We don’t want a 200 page description of everything we know about the impacts. While we haven’t imposed a page limit yet, we want a succinct scientific roadmap to climate solutions. We care about implementing solutions that promote ecological and social resilience. The roadmap should translate across natural and social science to help us strengthen species, ecosystems, and human communities in the face of change. We need a holistic picture. This is an opportunity to set a vision and agenda for the State by not only illuminating solutions related to specific impacts (e.g., sea-level rise, OA etc.) but to explicitly examine the interconnections between impacts. In other words, a multiple stressor approach with an eye towards informing multiple management jurisdictions. And with that, I’m going to stay up here with the panel to answer questions - but Louise and Jamie are going to shed more light on the need for this report, and how the State could potentially use it.