The Emergence of IS: Implications for Global Security Masood Ur Rehman Khattak Lecturer Department of Politics and International Relations The Emergence of IS: Implications for Global Security

Introduction Introduction- Theoretical Understanding Brief introduction to (Islamic State) DAESH Phenomenon/ strength/ areas under control/ capabilities/ sources of funding etc. Can IS establish their base in Pakistan and Afghanistan ? If yes, then how and if NO, then why not ? And in the end recommendations based on ground reality and strategic imperatives of this region.

Terrorism as Global Phenomenon Terrorism is a global phenomenon ladies and gentlemen. In the modern times militants around the globe are not only inter linked but also sharing their funds, recruits and expertise. For example Al-Qaeda helped Boko Haram with 3 million in 2002 to establish Madrassahs/ seminaries in Nigera. Al-Qaeda shared its expertise in IED making with TTP and Afghan Taliban in AfPak region.

Terrorism as Global Phenomenon Al-Qaeda helped IS to establish in network in Iraq and Syria. More than 7000-9000 Al-Qaeda men are there in Somalia and trying to make it another safe heaven for global terrorist organizations after getting hammered by America and Pakistan in Afghanistan and FATA. This is the reason that we have seen terrorist attacks all around the globe by likeminded / closely linked terrorist groups in 9/11 New York, Bali 2002, London 2008, Madrid 2004 and so on.

224- Killed 4000- injured

19 killed 500 wounded

17- US Soldiers Killed 34- Injured

1993 World Trade Center bombing

Bali Bombing- 2002 202- Killed 209- injuries

Brief Introduction of IS The Islamic State militants emerged after the debacle of Saddam regime in 2003. Initially this group was closely aligned to a group called AQI led by Al-Qaeda leader Musab Al-Zarqawi. From 2002-2006 AQI played havoc with the security of Iraq.

Brief Introduction of IS… In 2006 Musab Al-Zarqawi was killed in an air strike by the US and AQI suffered huge setbacks from 2006-2010. In 2010 Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi became the leader of the ISIS-L. After the US withdrawal from Iraq, the Iraqi security forces were unable to put hold on the advance of IS.

IS control areas By 2014 the IS captured significant areas in Iraq and Syria and announced “Khilafat”. Currently the IS militants control estimated 90,000 sq km area, which is three times larger than- (FATA- 27000 sq km). Estimated 8 million population reside in these areas.

Strength of ISIS US officials believe IS could have as many as 31,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria. Iraq expert Hisham al-Hashimi says about 30% are "ideologues", with the remainder joining out of fear or coercion. A significant number of IS fighters are neither Iraqi nor Syrian.

Strength of ISIS It is estimated that more than 20,000 foreign fighters from as many as 90 countries, including more than 3,400 Westerners. According to U.S. officials, approximately 150 U.S. citizens have traveled to Syria to support armed groups there since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011.

Weapons in USE IS fighters have access to, and are capable of using, a wide variety of small arms and heavy weapons, Truck-mounted machine-guns, rocket launchers, Anti-aircraft guns and portable surface-to-air missile systems.

WEAPONS IN USE….. An advanced surface-to-air missile have been supplied to Syrian rebels by Qatar against has been filmed in the hands of ISIS jihadists. A militant was shown firing a Chinese-made FN6 shoulder- mounted missile, with a later image suggesting it had brought down an Iraqi army helicopter. The attack was said to have happened during the battle for Baiji, a town that houses Iraq’s biggest oil refinery.

Weapons in USE They have also captured tanks and armoured vehicles from the Syrian and Iraqi armies. Their haul of vehicles from the Iraqi army includes Humvees and bomb-proof trucks that were originally manufactured for the US military.

SAMs

RUSSIAN MANPADS- ( Man Portable Air Defense Systems.)

Short Range Missiles

Tanks with IS

US HUMVEEs

IS Seized Uranium The Islamic state militants have seized 88 pounds of uranium compounds from a Mosul University science lab. "There is theoretically the potential for a dirty bomb.” (Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association). The IS may soon be able to create "improvised nuclear devices" (IND). 

IS Agenda/ Goals

Sources of funding The IS militants would require annual funding of about $815.3 million to continue their terrorist activities in Iraq and Syria. The IS control resources of worth more than US$2 trillion, which can generate US$2.9 billion per annum. Kidnapping for Ransom- $20- million a month. Stolen from banks- $500 Smuggling the Migrants- $323 million

Oil and Gas The IS militants generate estimated US $2 Million to $4 million from these oil sales in black market. The IS, sell this oil on discounted rate of US$25 as compare to the US$ 68 current market price.

Oil and Gas

Wheat production The Islamic State has captured huge cultivable land in Iraq and Syria. In the West of Iraq the IS militants control 40% of Iraqi wheat growing areas. With these sales they can generate funds around US $120 million. The IS carried out same strategy in Syria. The areas under their control in Kobane and Aleppo could generate more than 200 million dollars annually for the IS.

Funds from wheat production

Taxation First, the IS militants have established their checkpoint at Waleed crossing which connect Iraq with Jordon. Secondly, the Tanif crossing that connects Syria with Iraq. The IS impose tax of $300 on a truck of food items and $400 for a load of electronics. On both these points the IS militants have established their network and they collect funds from every vehicle which cross these points.

Can IS make its inroads to Pakistan Establish a base for its Operations in Khurassan Attacks on Pakistani security forces Get Recruits/ Affiliates/Groups Ignite Sectarian Violence

Operation Zarb-I-Azb Commander Zarb-e-Azb Military Operation Major General Zafar Ullah Khan has said that the arm cache recovered from the militants could have enabled the terrorists to protract the conflict for another 15 years if only they had used five IEDs everyday in North Waziristan, Fata or elsewhere in the country. Pakistan Army had so far cleared 90 percent of the North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of terrorists and killed 1,198 terrorists and injured 356 during the ongoing military Operation Zarb-e- Azb.  

Operation Zarb-I-Azb So far, 2,708 sq km of the area has been got vacated while the remaining area would be cleared as quickly as possible.   An analysis of terrorists’ IEDs capability revealed that they could have caused as many as 88,440 casualties through the IEDs only.

Pakistan’s efforts against ALQ Pakistan played crucial role in defeating Al- Qaeda. Since 2002-2015 Pakistan carried out numerous successful operations across Pakistan, killed and captured over 400 Al-Qaeda linked militants.

Palestinian Abu Zubeida. Captured in Pakistan March 28, 2002: He was operational chief of Al-Qaeda, apprehended in Faisalabad by Pakistan security forces.

Ramzi Binalshibh He was a Yemeni national and one-time roommate of Mohamed Atta, suspected ringleader of the September 11 hijackers, was captured in Karachi in September 2002.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed He was arrested in Rawalpindi a. A Pakistani by origin, Khalid had grown up in Kuwait.  Besides having masterminded the 9/11 attacks on the US, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad is also known to have beheaded the Wall Street journalist Daniel Pearl in Karachi in February 2002.

Yassir al-Jaziri He was a high value al-Qaeda target arrested in Lahore. His capture had resulted after information was extracted from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. He was then described as the seventh most important al-Qaeda member.   Yassir as “Osama’s moneyman” and a “computer wizard” who was captured with two laptops. 

Khalid bin Attash or Walid bin Attish- 2003 He was captured In April 2003. He is the man believed to have been a prime suspect in the case relating to The October 2000 attack on the American naval ship “USS Cole” at Aden, was seized in Karachi.

Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani- 2004 On July 30, 2004 after a 14-hour long encounter, a Tanzanian national and a wanted al-Qaeda commander Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani was arrested from the city of Gujrat. Wanted by the US for his involvement in the explosions outside the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

Musaad Aruchi- 2004 Musaad Aruchi, a nephew of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed with a $1 million bounty on his head, was arrested in Karachi in June 2004. He was a Pakistani courier who worked in connection with al Qaeda, before his capture in April 2004. Some of his files, secured when he was captured.

Mohammad Naeem Noor Khan-2004 In August 2004 an al- Qaeda computer wizard known as Mohammad Naeem Noor Khan was arrested in Lahore. He was believed to have had extensive links with Khalfan Ghailani, who was arrested just days before him.

Mustafa Setmarian Nasar: 2006 In May 2006 a man called Mustafa Setmarian Nasar was captured Quetta. The dual Syrian- Spanish national was carrying a head money of $5 million. He was wanted in Spain in connection with the 2004 Madrid train bombings.

191- killed 2000+ Injured (2004)

Abu Faraj al-Libbi May 2, 2005: Libyan Abu Faraj al-Libbi, Al-Qaeda's number three and the head of the network in Pakistan, was arrested in the northwest of the country.

Abu Hamza Rabia Abu Hamza Rabia, an al Qaeda commander ranked the third most senior leader in the network, was killed in a tribal region of Pakistan  in December 2005 while making an IED.

Muhsin Musa Matwalli Atwah Muhsin Musa Matwalli Atwah (also known as Abdul Rehman), an Egyptian al Qaeda member wanted for involvement in the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Kenya, was killed by Pakistani forces close to the Afghan border in April 2006.

Abu Laith al-Libi Jan 29, 2008: An Al- Qaeda commander in Afghanistan, Abu Laith al-Libi, one of bin Laden's leading lieutenants, was killed by a US missile in northwest Pakistan.

Bin Laden Dead May 1, 2011: US President Barack Obama announces that US forces killed bin Laden and recovered his body during a commando operation at Abbottabad.

Adnan el Shukrijuma- 2014 One of al-Qaeda’s most senior leaders who had been implicated in plots to blow up the London Underground and the New York metro has been killed during a raid on his hideout in Pakistan. Adnan Shukrijumah, the terror group's chief of global operations, died along with two other suspected terrorists in Pakistan’s South Waziristan tribal area early on Saturday, the country’s military said.

Sheeba Ahmad- 2015 The CTD) arrested an alleged financer of al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent (AQIS) group in Karachi on September 2015.

IS in Afghanistan Physical Space- (Khurassan) Alliance with local militant Group Recruitment Afghan Drug Trade/Funding Sectarian Violence

Recommendations Collective efforts at regional and global level Enhanced intelligence sharing and coordination Curb Terrorist Financing Counter Narrative of IS ideology Reconstruction/ Development/ Job creation/ Education