1. ISIS, International Security, and the Global Economy
Stephen Long, Ph.D.
University of Richmond

2. What is ISIS/ISIL/IS? 2001-2004: al-Zarqawi’s Herat group
: al-Qaeda-allied AQI
: al-Masri’s Islamic State of Iraq
2010-today: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
“Waist-ing” away in Camp Bucca

3. How Strong is ISIS?
CIA estimates up to 31,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria (vs. al-Qaeda’s 3,000 peak)
Control over oil fields and small refineries in northern Iraq and northern Syria, exporting $2 to 3 million per day through Turkish oil traders
$2 billion in total assets
ISIS can pay foreign fighters $1,000 to $4,500 per month

4. What Does It Want?

5. Can It Succeed? YES: NO: Incredibly oppressive in areas of control
Currently control 13,000 square miles (about the size of Belgium)
Wealthiest non-state, armed entity in modern history
NO:
Incredibly oppressive in areas of control
No electricity, taxing heavily, seizing bank accounts, making other religions illegal
Most fighters are not local, creating resentment in the population

6. Source: Institute for the Study of War “ISIS Sanctuary Map,” May 25, 2016

7. Why Is ISIS So Brutal? Iraq’s long history of internal violence
Recruiting from the very bottom of the socioeconomic distribution
Issues of class and urban/rural life entangled with religion
“Power without responsibility”

8. Why Us? We “broke” Iraq and Syria We armed ISIS (by mistake)
The Iraqi Army is still too weak to defeat ISIS, tied down in Baghdad
Arab air power is symbolic
Turks are mostly staying out
Most anti-ISIS ground troops are Kurds Alternative intervener is Iran
American credibility

9. Why Us?

10. U.S. Strategy Air strikes Uncomfortable coalition of allies
Special forces operators
Playing Russian roulette

12. Challenges ISIS has superior unity of effort
ISIS requires minimal effort to keep allied forces on defensive
Prioritization of Sunni-Shia split in Iraq
European desperation to end refugee crisis

13. Russian Roulette
ISW 2016

14. Economic Effects
Decline in oil prices has weakened the Iraqi state, which relies on oil for 90% of export revenues
Issuing bonds through Citigroup and DB and borrowing from central bank reserves, all while decreasing investment in oil output (Shell)

15. Global Economic Effects
Systemic factors driving oil prices: Saudis pricing US shale producers out of business, OPEC going along with this strategy
Primary ISIS-induced risk is in the long term
Ungoverned spaces in Syria and Iraq
Potential escalation of ground war
Export of trained fighters to Europe and elsewhere increases terrorism risk
Counter-value targeting could threaten shipping