WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) Concept and progress Yu Hui （余晖） Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA

Outline Backgrounds and objectives Implementation tasks and organization Progress Collaboration with the THORPEX TCEFP Future plan

Backgrounds Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP

Objectives To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon forecasting technique in the world To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMO  To enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the “Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010

Implementation tasks Collection of real-time forecast data Verification of forecasts Forecast integration techniques and reliability analyses Dissemination of products Benefit Assessment

Organization International Scientific Steering Committee Co-chairs: Prof. Lianshou CHEN Dr. Xu TANG Project Coordination Group East China Regional Steering Committee Team 1 Data collection and dissemination Team 2 Forecast verification Team 3 Forecast integration Team 4 Benefit assessment Team leaders: Dr. Binke ZHAO Dr. Hui YU Dr. Barbara BROWN Mr. Xiaofeng WANG Mr. Zhiqiang CHEN Ms. Liying TAO Mr. L.S. LEE

Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center Organization Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA Lead agencies East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center WWRP/WMO Coordination departments TCP/WMO PWS/WMO

Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Real time data collection Products dissemination Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses Benefit assessment Training and demonstration

List of typhoon forecast products providers (TFPPs) Full name Abbreviation Ways of contribution 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF GTS, FTP and via TIGGE 2 Hong Kong Observatory HKO GTS and FTP 3 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration ITMM FTP and Intranet of CMA 4 Japan Meteorological Agency JMA 5 Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States JTWC GTS 6 Korea Meteorological Administration KMA GTS and via TIGGE 7 Meteorological Service of Canada MSC Via TIGGE 8 National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States NCEP 9 National Hurricane Center of the United States NHC FTP 10 National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration NMC/CMA GTS, FTP, Intranet of CMA and via TIGGE 11 East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration ECRMC 12 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization RSMC Tokyo 13 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration STI FTP, Intranet of CMA and via TIGGE

List of products collected in real time Type TFPP Track Intensity Wind Radii 2-D gridded surface wind 2-D gridded precipitation 3-D gridded model output Official FCST HKO JTWC KMA NMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Y Y (A) Global model ECMWF JMA Regional model STI ITMM RMCEC Ensemble prediction MSC NCEP Cconsensus prediction Statistical prediction NHC/USA Y (P) A: only analyses available; P: probability

Data Archiving All the related data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by SMS Available to research, training and capacity-building activities

Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Real time data collection Products dissemination Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses Benefit assessment Training and demonstration

Operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center -- a component of Shanghai MHEWS In Chinese Released in July 2010 In support of EXPO2010

HKO QMORPH Product STI/CMA TC Size Forecast Product

MICAPS TC Plug-in A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone information together with other data from multiple sources. In support of EXPO2010

Website of the project (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn) Released in June, 2011

Sample images FY-2E Satellite images Striking probability (EPS and super-ensemble) Track & intensity forecast and real time verification Gridded model output High winds striking prob.

Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Real time data collection Products dissemination Forecast verification and reliability analyses Training and demonstration Benefit assessment

Operational TC forecast verification practice in the western North Pacific region The current operational status of TC forecast verification is analyzed on the basis of an e-mail survey covering all the Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Main conclusions are Significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the region Only a few verification products are available for the probabilistic forecasts from EPS Verification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region

New attempts by TLFDP Track and landfall forecast Relative forecast skill of TC moving speed and direction Hit rate of landfall Relation between track forecast error and guiding flow Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Evaluation form of TC landing point forecast in 2010-2011 (China) Method CONS_MODEL CMA_GSM GRAPES-TCM ITMM_TMM JMA_GSM ECMWF_GSM Average Error(unit:km) 44.5 59.2 99.6 128.6 47.3 51.8 SSR: R (unit:%) 66.7% 72.2% 83.3% 61.1% SFR: F (unit:%) 85.71% 92.9% 93.8% 80.0% 100% 91.7%

Relation between track forecast error and guiding flow

New attempts by TLFDP Intensity forecast Skill score Category skill score Joint charts of POD and FAR Trend analyses Relation between intensity forecast error and initial intensity error of NWP models BS, PRS, and ranking analyses of EPS forecasts Skill scores versus chance of eight TC intensity forecast techniques

Reliability analyses based on initial intensity error of NWP model

New attempts by TLFDP Precipitation forecast List of real-time MET products for SMB-WARMS Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Variables Resolution of the Model Verified Region Verification Indices Observation TMP/P850 RH/P700 HGT/P500 WIND/P500 15km & 9km Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR Analyses field of the model 2m TMP 10m WIND 9km MODE, DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR Precipitation A combination of TRMM precipitation and surface observation ECR & Individual provinces DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR , ETS, TS, TSS, Accuracy, POD, FAR, MAR Surface observation

MODE products for 24h precipitation initialized at 00UTC August 31 2010. forecast of SMB-WARMS; Observation. 24h precipitation from (a) SMB-WARMS and (b) MICAPS, initialized at 12UTC August 29 2011

An evaluation system for tropical cyclone forecast Based on the experiences gained through the implementation of TLFDP and a survey on current operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, an evaluation system for TC forecast is proposed and will act as a guideline for future work of TLFDP.

Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Real time data collection Products dissemination Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses Training and demonstration Benefit assessment

June 2010, Shanghai 11 lecturers from 9 institutions Trainees: 20 forecasters working for the World Expo 2010 June 2012, Shanghai 11 lecturers from 9 institutions Trainees: 40 forecasters

Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center (STWC) A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific, especially those with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR) Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR WMO-TLFDP Homepage Operational website of STWC Data Collection Verification

Progress Real time data collection Products dissemination Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009 Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009 A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project Implementing duration: 2010-2012 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off   Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Real time data collection Products dissemination Forecast evaluation and reliability analyses Training and demonstration Benefit assessment

Benefit assessment A series of surveys were carried out to assess the benefit of the WMO-TLFDP The survey’s objects were divided into three groups: public users, industrial and special users and meteorological forecasters The objective of the public user survey is to gauge the public’s opinions on the accuracy of weather forecasts and typhoon warnings issued by SMS The objective of the forecaster survey is to gauge the forecaster’s opinions on the typhoon forecasting and on the typhoon objective techniques during the project period

Forecasters’ need: the most troubling issue in TC forecasting

Collaboration with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP From TCEFP to TLFDP TC EPS products in CXML format Verification information on TC EPS products Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products) From TLFDP to TCEFP Ideas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS products Feedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public service Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

Training on EPS and popularization of the experience Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa, June 2010, Shanghai Dr. Jing Chen, June 2012, Shanghai Dr. Hui Yu, November 2010, La Reunion

A selective consensus method for track forecast based on EPSs

Evaluation of intensity forecasts from EPSs (a) Brier score of the seven TIGGE ensemble prediction systems in 2010; (b) The same as (a) but with initial correction; (c) Improvements in Brier score by initial correction.

WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) The WMO-TLFDP has made significant progress in various aspects, which can be summarized as follows: Real-time TC forecast products are collected through various ways from a total of 13 agencies, including the TIGGE TC EPS products from 7 agencies. A real time verification platform of TC forecast has been set up. An evaluation system for TC forecast has been set up. A variety of TC forecast and verification products are disseminated through the WMO-TLFDP website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn). A new landfall typhoon forecast flow based on the products of WMO-TLFDP has been experimentally set up in ECRMC/CMA, in which the TC EPS products are playing an important role. Based on a benefit assessment of TC forecast services in Shanghai from 2010 to 2011, the overall satisfaction factor is fairly high up to 82.3%. 38

Future Plan The project will be continued till the end of 2015 Two teams will be formed for the continuation Demonstration application of new TC forecast products and verification techniques Benefit assessment

Thank you for your attention. For more information, please visit WMO-TLFDP website: http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn (Please email to Mr. LI Qingqing liqq@mail.typhoon.gov.cn for username and password.) Tang X., X.T. Lei, H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) - Concept and Progress. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.