CAMPAIGNS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR (THE PROCESS) Daily Learning Goal: I can explain and analyze the system of elections in the United States. “I – Like every politician at the federal level – am almost entirely dependent on the media to reach my constituents. It is the filter through which my votes are interpreted, my statements analyzed, my beliefs examined. For the broad public at least, I am who the media says I am.” -Barack Obama Warm up: What are the effects for our government and democracy if President Obama’s statement is true?

Types of Elections Primary Elections and Caucuses – Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election – Closed Primary Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate – Open Primary Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth

Types of Elections Primary Elections and Caucuses – Blanket Primary Voters choose candidates of any party for each positions Difference between Blanket and Open Primary is that in Open primary you can only vote for a single party, in Blanket you can vote for candidates from any party, but only one candidate per office. – Caucus Meetings of party members used to select delegates and nominees – California uses a Closed Primary System.

Types of Elections General Election – Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents – Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation Special Elections Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election – Initiative Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures

Types of Elections Special Elections – Referendum Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people (a vote to determine whether or not citizens support an action by their state legislature) EX: CA Prop 1 and 2 on new water laws – Recall Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official – Special elections are only held at the state or local levels

Congressional Elections Are held every 2 years on even-numbered years. Primary Elections – Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot – Primary election determines party nominee Incumbent – A candidate who already holds the office they are running for. – Generally hold an advantage in Congressional elections due to name recognition

Congressional Elections Senatorial Elections Held every two years (1/3 rd of Senators each time who serve 6 year terms) Eligibility Requirements:  30 years old  Citizen for 9 years  Live in State House Elections Held every two years to elect Representatives Eligibility Requirements:  25 years old  Citizen for 7 years  Live in District

Congressional Elections General Elections (party nominees who were voted in during the primary ) – Winner takes all system An election system in which the candidate with the most votes wins. – Single Member Districts An electoral district in which voters choose one representative or official. (favors 2 party system)

Congressional Elections – Mid-Term Elections “Off-Year” Elections held between presidential elections Lower voter turnout – the incumbent President’s party generally has lowest turnout. – Incumbency Effect Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning – Coat-tail Effect Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

Review What is the difference between the open and blanket primary? What types of elections are held at the Federal Level? At the State? Local? What advantages do Incumbents have in elections? What is the difference between voting for a candidate and voting for an initiative? What type of election year was 2014? What type will come in 2016? Based on current incumbency, which party did 2014 favor? Did this trend hold true?

Presidential Elections Held every four years Phases of Presidential Candidacy: – Exploration – Announcement – Primaries and Caucuses – Nominating Conventions – General Election Campaign – Electoral College

The Nomination Game Nomination – The official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party. Paradox of Campaigns – Candidates must appeal to people further from the political center in the primaries and caucuses, but must later appeal to the center in the general election. Minority Parties – Because of our two party system with the primaries, it is very difficult for minority (small) parties to compete

The Nomination Game The Long Campaign – Other countries have short campaigns- generally less than 2 months. – U.S. campaigns (especially for President) can last 18 months or more. “There are few more demanding physical activities than running for president, other than military training or athletics at a very high level.” -Karl Rove

Caucus vs Primary Caucus – meetings of party members used to select delegates and nominees. – Requires a special strategy and organizational abilities – About a dozen states use the caucus – Iowa’s is first and is considered the most important. – Gets only a small amount of voters due to the time commitment.

Caucus vs Primary Primary – Elections in which voters choose the nominee or delegates pledged to the nominee. – Three basic methods of awarding delegates All or nothing (this creates problems with frontloading and ending the primary early, financial strategy, and gives a bump to those with name recognition) Awarded based upon congressional districts Proportional representation

Caucus vs Primary Frontloading – a state holds its primary early to capitalize on media attention – Effect: States who go first have more say in deciding the candidate

The Nomination Game Problems with the “long campaign” – Disproportionate attention to the early states. (Iowa and NH). – Money plays a big a role. – Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and voters are more extreme. – Media is given a great deal of power

Conventions In the past, provided great drama, but now they are a basic formality- which means less TV time. Are still important to the party to get the base organized and motivated (Pep Rally). Party platform – Statement of its goals, policies and general beliefs. Official nominations and candidate speeches.

Delegates to the Convention Primarily determined by the results of the primaries and caucuses Delegates are primarily “mouthpieces” for the states based upon the primaries Super-delegates awarded seats based on the office they hold, such as being a member of Congress or governor bring experience and represent the elite They are not required, unlike the regular delegates, to vote a certain way and thus give more power to the party

The Election The campaign involves leadership and organization in order to allocated the candidates scare resources of time, money, and energy in pursuit of their political objectives. Media – Most prevalent means used by candidates to reach voters – Created Candidate centered election Cover candidates background Image/Personality coverage Horserace reporting polls Candidate sound bits Focus on candidate gaffes

The Election The Internet – major role player – 16% of Americans, but 54% of year olds regularly receive s, tweets, or posts on facebook – Great for donations Direct Mail Organizing the Campaign (manager, fundraiser, lawyers, consultants, staff, pollsters, press secretary, & web site) Money (campaigns are costly and the money involved creates controversy)

The Election Strategy – Focus on large states – Focus on competitive states (swing states) Outcomes – Presidential Mandate Approached by a winning president that their agenda must be approved Usually looks like victories are larger because of the winner take all electoral college system

The Electoral College Electoral College, not the popular vote that determines the President Winner take All System – Candidates who get the most votes wins all of the state’s electoral votes (all but two states, Maine and Nebraska, do this) – If no candidate receives a majority, then the House of Representatives must choose between the top three electoral vote winners (has not occurred since 1824) – Causes candidates to ignore states that they will win or lose regardless of the campaign and to focus only on the competitive (swing) and big states Support issues that win a state with other costs – Keeps third party candidates from winning electoral votes even with large popular vote totals which reduces fundraising abilities

The Electoral College Why don’t we change? – 1 st – Changing the constitution is difficult – 2 nd – Benefits smaller states – 3 rd – No clear consensus on a better way – 4 th – Favors the two party system

Review and Analysis Due Wednesday at beginning of class (BOC). Over time, the Presidential election cycle has lengthened. This means that primary election periods are longer, which might give the public more time to examine a candidate’s credentials. Explain why extended primary campaigns can be helpful, and why in the long-run, they can also be harmful. HINT: Think about the concepts like the primary paradox, front loading, and the effect that the media and advertising have on elections.