Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia Update for VTrans2025 Technical Committee June 14, 2006 Dr. James H. Lambert Alexander S. Linthicum Katherine M. Tejano

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Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 3 Recent Work Completed Submitted Phase 2 VTRC Report, Draft “Analytical Support for the Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan - Phase 2” Compiled additional MIN maps and statistics

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 4 Phase II VTRC Report The report develops a prototype framework on which to compare alternative multimodal transportation investments –Multimodal Vision and Planning –Budgeting and Programming –Socioeconomic and Geographic Characteristics –Institutional Authority –Base Infrastructure –Technology / Knowledge Performed corridor analysis from two perspectives –Capital Cost Analysis (B&P) Multimodal vs. Highway Only Comparison VDOT vs. MPO/PDC LRTP Comparison –Population Density Analysis (S&G)

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 5 Phase II VTRC Report Capital Cost Analysis Results –Multimodal vs. Highway Only Comparison Operations and maintenance costs must be considered Benefits of multimodal must be equivalent to those of highway only, OR Benefits must be captured in monetary units

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 6 Phase II VTRC Report Capital Cost Analysis Results (continued) –VDOT vs MPO/PDC LRTP Comparison 7 of 11 corridors had sufficient data at the time of this study $0 indicates cost was not available for a specific initiative. In general, VDOT’s cost estimation of interstates consistently exceeds those estimates of the regional MPOs/PDCs Discrepancies among agency plans provided significant challenges to the effort –Differences in content, financial basis, and format between plans are numerous –Contents of each plan are variable and non-uniform –Plans all published at different times with a variety of year-of- expenditure dollar projections; some make no mention of a base- year Refer to next slide for quantitative results

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Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 8 Phase II VTRC Report Population density analysis –Population densities are generally greatest in areas with significant populations Especially Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads / Norfolk, and Richmond –I-95, I-64, and I-66 corridors are strong candidates for multimodal transportation investment based on population density –Population densities for remaining corridors indicate limited ability to support multimodal passenger investment Generally low in density and connect few large population centers along routes

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 9 Phase II VTRC Report Anticipated future work –Budgeting and Programming Investigate practical methods of increasing the accuracy and inclusion of life-cycle costs into project estimates for transportation and planning agencies Research quantification of benefits to employ more advanced cost methodologies such as cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses. Investigate methods of increasing cooperation among modal agencies and transportation planning organizations in developing cost estimates specifically, and long-range transportation plans in general –Socioeconomic and Geographic Characteristics Research further attributes that characterize corridors as either strong or weak candidates for multimodal passenger investment (Accessibility Analysis) Extend subject corridors to determine which routes connect to high density areas outside the state Include freight characteristics such as volume and capacity and origins and destinations to determine viability for multimodal freight projects along these corridors Identify opportunities for localized multimodal transportation investments that are of statewide strategic significance

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 10 Phase II VTRC Report Anticipated future work (continued) –Multimodal Vision and Planning and Institutional Authority Determine whether the vision and planning efforts of all transportation, land use, economic, and government stakeholders are aligned Research public-private transportation projects –Base Infrastructure Data collection and research is necessary to determine the transportation facilities that already exist ***Aligns closely with VTrans performance metric effort –Technology / Knowledge Determine context sensitive solutions and techniques most appropriate for individual transportation challenges

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 11 Additional MIN maps and statistics

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 12 Additional MIN maps and statistics

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 13 Additional MIN maps and statistics

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 14 Additional MIN maps and statistics

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Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia 24 Anticipated Work Continue Statewide Accessibility Analysis Further develop the prototype framework for comparing alternative transportation investments –Multimodal Vision and Planning –Budgeting and Programming –Socioeconomic and Geographic Characteristics –Institutional Authority –Base Infrastructure –Technology / Knowledge