Historical trends in the jet streams Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Cristina Archer and.

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Historical trends in the jet streams Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science AMS Meeting, New Orleans, January 2008

Scientific questions IF, HOW, WHY have the jet streams changed in last decades? Methods  Definition of jet streams  Observed trends  Interpretation Methods  Definition of jet streams  Observed trends  Interpretation Tools Reanalyses (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR)

Jet streams: the theory

Jet streams: the reality Koch et al. (2006) Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

Jet streams: the reality Koch et al. (2006) Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere SpiralAnnular

Jet stream centroids Wind speed Altitude Latitude

Jet stream wind speed

NH SHT SHP

Wind speed trends  NH, SHT weakening  SHP strengthening  NH, SHT weakening  SHP strengthening

Altitude trends  ERA-40: all jets rising significantly  NCEP/NCAR: SHP rising significantly, NH and SHT nearly constant  ERA-40: all jets rising significantly  NCEP/NCAR: SHP rising significantly, NH and SHT nearly constant

Latitude anomaly trends  All jets are moving poleward

Thermal Wind  Zonal wind speed trends similar in both reanalyses  Zonal thermal wind explains partially NH wind speed trends only  Zonal wind speed trends similar in both reanalyses  Zonal thermal wind explains partially NH wind speed trends only

Surface Temperature  Jets rising overall, but more variations in NH  Trends in surface temperature do not explain trends in jet height  Jets rising overall, but more variations in NH  Trends in surface temperature do not explain trends in jet height

Conclusions  Centroid approach to define jet streams  Jet streams have risen in altitude and moved poleward in both hemispheres  NH and SHT jets have weakened, whereas the SHP jet has strengthened  Impact of global warming (via surface temperature) mild in NH jet, not evident in SH jets - HIGHLY SIMPLIFIED APPROACH!  Centroid approach to define jet streams  Jet streams have risen in altitude and moved poleward in both hemispheres  NH and SHT jets have weakened, whereas the SHP jet has strengthened  Impact of global warming (via surface temperature) mild in NH jet, not evident in SH jets - HIGHLY SIMPLIFIED APPROACH!