1. Simulated and observed geopotential height and temperature changes

2. Poleward shift in tropospheric jet Strengthened stratospheric jet January November December Simulated wind change (ms -1 ): October

3. Reduced convergence Enhanced convergence Dipole in wave forcing JanuaryDecember NovemberEP-flux divergence (Pa): October

4. Changes in stratospheric wave driving EP-flux convergence averaged above 100 hPa, poleward of 45˚S in the control and depleted ozone integrations. The peak wave driving associated with the final warming is delayed by ~1 month.

5. Santer et al. (2004) results Time series of global mean, monthly mean anomalies in lower stratospheric temperatures (MSU T4). Results are processed MSU T4 measurements (UAH, RSS) and synthetic T4 temperatures calculated from NCEP-50, ERA-40, and the ensemble mean of the PCM ALL experiment. PCM has T42 resolution with 18 levels.

6. Stratospheric temperature changes in reanalyses and PCM. Least squares linear trends over 1979–2001 in monthly mean processed or synthetic MSU T4 temperatures from ERA-40 (a), RSS (b), UAH (c), and NCEP-50 (d). Also shown are T4 trends over 1979–1999 in the ensemble mean of the PCM ALL experiment (e) (Santer et al., 2004).