Studying Politics Scientifically

Experience shows that political problems are solved, if they ever are, only at the cost of creating new ones -Is it the political form (democracy, republic, …) or the political administration that counts? -human nature or the individual vs collective issues

How to steer the ship of state? -based on reliable facts and sound explanations of how the vessel works – to be found in science -Politics as a science – is this an oxymoron? -Yes, if … -No, if …

-Seeing politics as a science requires a complete change of perspective -The way we experience politics is as a drama of character, convention, and circumstance -Political science requires that we forget how we experience politics and try to analyze it as a process, the same as the other social sciences analyze different phenomena -Similar in this respect to sociology, psychology, anthropology, ecology, archaeology, -Intro to Politics – not Intro to Political Science

Political cycles: the theory of recurring cycles -Why the change in political regimes? -Each constitution collapsed from its inherent defects – the individual qualities of those involved were only marginally responsible – Machiavelli -Move on to the next step in the political cycle -Many such cycles never complete themselves – weakness (caused by disorder in state) makes it prey to conquest by neighbors OR by neighbors that are too strong at one point -The idea of a system is essential – politics should be understood as a mechanism -The other two ways of understanding politics were …

The theory of recurrent cycles -Monarchies tend to degenerate into tyranny -Tyrannies are overthrown by aristocracies -Aristocracies degenerate into oligarchies -Oligarchies are overthrown by democracies -Democracies degenerate into unstable mob rules -Mob rules are overthrown by a monarch Since we know how politics work, can we break the cycle and achieve long-term stability?

If politics is a mechanism, the politician is an engineer, a mechanic outside the system, trying to make the machinery work the way we want - The politician turned engineer needs to balance: -Internal influences (endogenous) -Influences from outside the system (exogenous) -The science element consists in the attempt to understand politics as a process or mechanism -What are the boundaries between endogenous and exogenous?

Political science rests on a foundation best understood in terms of the metaphor of engineering -It also rests upon a rhetoric which contrasts images, stereotypes, and fiction with facts, evidence and reality -The political scientist is the proprietor of an endless mine of data – sets of facts which can be used to construct and test theories -Modern days: progressive intoxication with data -First, the political scientists need to make sense of this data – synthesizing is essential -What information is relevant? -Sounds familiar?

Politics, as the political scientist sees it, is systems thickened with data and, once he/she synthesized that data, the main aim is to find causal connections between them (or patterns) -What is the relation between politics and the other forms of human association? -Politics is autonomous, though it is obviously related to the other human activities and structures

-Basic question in political science: what causes such and such a political phenomenon? -Why did the Conservatives lose the elections so badly? -Explanations from within as well as from outside politics -E.g., superior party organization of the winner -E.g., economy: governments get re-elected if the election is held on a rising curve of the trade cycle -If true, all that politicians need in order to win elections is to engineer a boom before the election date -September 2012 – the lowest unemployment rate in the US -October 2015 – the Canadian economy was … - Unfortunately for governments, the economy or the society will not always do what they are told by the politicians

What determines voter behaviour? -19 th century: political analysts assumed that human beings were entirely rational – they would try to appeal to voters in term of purely rational arguments -20 th century: the main determinants of political behaviour were images, stereotypes, emotions arising in the crowds, family, and many other irrational factors -Human conduct lacks even the regularity found in the natural world – it is essentially non-rational Which of the two perceptions encourages politics as a science?

Rational choice theory: instead of concentrating on emotions and reflexes, it focuses on rational deliberation -Politicians and voters are constantly making choices based on `expected utility` -This can be studied in terms of formal logic of preference -Rational choice theorists ask: under what conditions is it rational to choose a strategy of cooperation with others as opposed to pursuing one`s individual advantage? -E.g., Coderre`s team at the city hall -

The political choice of strategy is greatly influenced by the notion of trust -Can I trust the opposition to vote this plan because it is the best for the country? -Can I trust the voters to back me on this issue? -Do people trust the politicians? -Trust is risky but it can also have the greatest pay- off

Can political science accommodate rationality? -What do we mean by rationality? -When human beings act, they seek both: -To realize the desires which impel action -Goal-seeking -The express themselves in conserving a chosen identity -Identity-conserving

-Rational choice theory can, in a limited way, turn the first element into a formula by quantifying and ordering preferences, but it cannot deal with the other element of action -The second one is prominent in politics -Rational choice theory needs to open itself to the ways in which people of different cultures conduct themselves -E.g., the question of democracy in the Arab world

The scientific study of politics is a great but limited achievement of our century -Political science often escapes these limitations by ignoring the strict requirements of science as a discipline -Historical and descriptive material rather than analytical

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