Is The US Housing Market Doing Well? Group 1 Day2 Pauline Tsai, Chris Wang

Background There is mortgage crisis from late 2007 US Federal tookover Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008 by USD 200 Billion

Robber Shiller mentioned some parts of the U.S. were in bubble territory with house prices growing rapidly The boom in asset prices is driven not by the usual exuberance but by an anxiety--- --anxiety about the aftermath of the global financial crisis, inequality and computers replacing jobs Bubbles need to be stopped

The housing price S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index – The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures changes in residential house prices in 20 metropolitan regions in the United States

Robust housing market

Housing Supply Monthly Supply of Homes – The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. This statistic provides an indication of the size of the for sale inventory in relation to the number of houses currently being sold

Supply remains rather low but grows

Why are the housing prices high Demand side – Recovery economy “The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment,” and “The housing sector has shown additional improvement” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. – Lower interest rate The Federal Reserve left its target range for the fed funds rate at 0 to 0.25 percent on July 29th, – Expecting higher interest rate in the near future

Why is the housing prices high Supply side – Certain localities are facing major restrictions in housing supply – prices rise when the supply of listed homes falls below six months' worth of sales. Right now the inventory of unsold homes equates to 5.1 months' worth of sales at the current pace

Mortgage rate is rather low

Up trends in future supply

concerns The Fed will tighten policy when it sees “some further improvement in the labor market,” and is “reasonably confident” inflation will move back to its 2 percent goal over the medium term The housing supplies will be catching up The housing market in the U.S. would be moderating in the near future.