The Global Politics of Climate Change Dr Daniel Bray La Trobe University

Introduction Global negotiations for a legally binding post-Kyoto agreement stalled Now in a phase of voluntary unilateral commitments (‘pledge and review’) Outline 1.The Climate Challenge in Summary 2.Responses From Key Global Actors 3.Ongoing Obstacles

The Climate Challenge in Summary IPCC 4AR: Warming of > 2 degrees significantly increases chance of ‘dangerous’ climate change To keep rises below 2 to 2.4 degrees we need to stabilise at between ppm CO2-eq. We are already at approximately 465 ppm CO2 –eq. and rising at 2-3ppm per year Converge on a 450ppm trajectory as quickly as possible

The Climate Challenge in Summary Source: IPCC 4AR

Responses From Key Global Actors UNFCCC 1992 Two general principles: 1.Common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) 2.Developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change

Responses From Key Global Actors Kyoto Protocol (COP 3) Reduction below 1990 levels by an average of 5.2% in EU -8%, US -7%, Australia +8% Flexibility Mechanisms

Responses From Key Global Actors Copenhagen Accord (COP 15) Global warming must be limited to below 2 degrees No binding targets for 2020 Focus on ensuring commitments are measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) Developed countries committed to providing US$100 billion a year by 2020 to assist developing countries

Responses From Key Global Actors 89 countries have pledged large cuts and actions under Cancun agreements Weighted average of developed country commitments add up to -10% to -16% on 2000 levels by 2020 Global commitments currently add up to a ppm mitigation scenario

Commitments of Key Emitters Country or Region Target Type Pledge Australia Reductions in absolute emissions by 2020 from 2000 levels -5% to -25% Canada-13% EU-12% to -23% Japan-33% Russia-15% to -31% US-16% China Reductions in emission intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) % to -45% India-20% to -25%

Commitments of Key Emitters Carbon Pricing 30 countries have introduced, or are seriously considering, market-based measures Emissions-trading schemes running or proposed in EU, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, California Carbon taxes in Scandinavia, Netherlands, Switzerland, India

Ongoing Challenges What is a fair share of the future burden? 1.Equality: equal share of atmospheric absorption capacity 2.Historical Responsibility: ‘polluter pays’ 3.Capacity: based on ability to respond and priority of basic needs

Ongoing Challenges

Conclusion End of Kyoto top-down approach? Split in developing country solidarity US roadblock Is mini-lateralism the answer?