© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change Fact or Fiction? Graham Butler – Met Office PWS Advisor South Tyneside 4 th December 2009

© Crown copyright Met Office Aren’t the changes down to the Sun and natural factors? NO : Measured solar activity shows no significant change in the last few decades whilst global temperatures continue to rise. Are computer models reliable? YES : Models are the only way to reliably predict climate change. Their reliability is tested by seeing if they can reproduce the past climate which then gives confidence that they can predict the future. Can we be sure there is a link between temperatures and CO 2 YES : Studies of polar ice cores show an undisputed link between CO 2 and temperature. Concentrations of CO 2 have increased by more than 35% since industrialisation began and they are now at their highest for at least 800,000 years. Has global warming now stopped? NO : Global warming does not mean the each year will be warmer than the last due to natural factors such as La Nina but the long term trend is for rising temperatures. The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since Some common questions and answers

© Crown copyright Met Office The “Greenhouse effect”

© Crown copyright Met Office GHG concentrations Burning fossil fuels. Deforestation. Farming practice. Industry.

© Crown copyright Met Office

Observations – England The UK has experienced 9 of the 10 warmest years on record since to 2008

© Crown copyright Met Office

Summer 2003 UK deaths 2000 deaths

© Crown copyright Met Office Large scale - Summer 2003 Estimated 30,000 extra deaths across the whole of Europe

© Crown copyright Met Office August 2003 European heatwave: anomaly relative to late 19 th century Hadley Centre We estimate with a high probability that half the cause of the European summer 2003 heatwave can be assigned to human activities. (Stott et al, Nature (2004)) °C°C

© Crown copyright Met Office Natural Influence Insufficient +

© Crown copyright Met Office Human Influence Fits Curve + +

© Crown copyright Met Office How our climate may change The annual average temperature rise by the end of the century is very likely to be 3.5C. Even if emissions of GHG stop now we will be committed to an annual rise of 2C by the middle of this century. As summers become warmer and drier droughts are more likely. However, there may also be more intense downpours of summer rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding. The extreme heatwave of 2003 could happen every other year by Heavy winter precipitation is expected to become more frequent, potentially causing more flooding. Sea level across the UK is projected to rise by between 11 and 76cms.

© Crown copyright Met Office

Contact details Graham Butler Met Office Advisor for Northeast England Landline: Mobile: EMARC: