G IOVANNA G IUFFRE ’, ISIS - S CENARIO BUILDING AND OUTLOOK OF THE PROJECT FRESHER WORKSHOP LISBON, 26 O CTOBER 2015

F ORESIGHT ACTIVITIES «A set of strategic tools that support governmental and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response” Anticipates multiple, plausible futures (Vs Forecast) 5 – 25 years horizon (Vs planning)

W HAT FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES ARE FOR.. to explore alternatives in the face of uncertainty to uncover assumptions (mental maps) and discuss them to share understanding and concerns to illuminate potential problems and future opportunities to help identify choices and policy options

W HAT FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES ARE FOR.. Adapted from IZT Wide range of Foresight activities and Scenarios depending on the overall aims, the time horizon, the territorial scale, the methodology used and the time and resources available..

Craft plausible and internal consistent Scenarios on the future of health and well-being; Highlight the critical uncertainties and the interrelations among drivers of NCSs; Identify set of policies options and targets; Point out possible paradigm shifts and wilds cards; Support the communication between scientist and policy making; Facilitate the dialogue among experts and use their judgement skills, not only their analysis attitude. AIMS OF FRESHER SCENARIOS

Scope: key determinants of chronic disease taking an holistic approach of health and well- being Horizon time: long term (2030 – 2050) Geographical scale: European Tecnique: Nomative with back- casting Approach: Combine a qualitative and quantitative FEATURES OF FRESHER SCENARIOS WHO ‘The European health Report’ (2012)

FRESHER FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES

Three regional workshops Experts interviews Desk research Identification of the trends, drivers, weak signals and wild cards in the future of health of well- being High policy event (WP6) Project Meeting with scientific advisory board and stakeholders committee Delphi survey categorisation of the variables by importance and uncertainty, creation of the scenarios space and draft of the FRESHER storylines Project Meeting with scientific advisory board and stakeholders committee Interface with the modelling tool Delphi survey Consolidated FRESHER Scenarios January 2015 to January 2016 January 2015 to January 2016 January 2016 to June 2016 January 2016 to June 2016 July 2016 to October 2017 July 2016 to October 2017 FRESHER FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES: ACTIVITIES, TIMING, STAKHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT AND RESULTS

F RESHER : NEXT STEPS Analysis and ranking of drivers and impacts Identification of major trends and drivers Ranking of the drivers => critical uncertainties Refinement of tools interfaces Establishing a methodology for translating qualitative inputs into quantitative metrics to ensure that the scenario narratives can operationally feed into the Micro Simulation Model (MSM), so to provide quantitative impacts on health, health services, cost Health Scenario stories Crafting consistent and plausible storylines able to capture the complex interaction between multiple determinants of health and well-being and assess the costs and impacts of different policy options. Facilitating the dialogue and promoting the strategic thinking among experts of different but interrelated disciplines