1. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & Media Greg Van Alstyne, Associate Professor, OCADU Director of Research, Strategic Innovation Lab Canada-EU Future Internet Workshop, 21 March 2011

2. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Uncertainty today is not just an occasional, temporary deviation from a reasonable predictability; it is a basic structural feature of the business environment. –Pierre Wack, 1985

3. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/ How can we foster a rich ecosystem for future mobile content and media? With rising competition, choice, and business uncertainties, what is the best approach? Many call for innovation; but what is the target? What is design thinking and why does it matter? What if we could learn to envision possible futures?

4. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab The Goal Innovation with anticipation: a forward view photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/

5. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab systems thinking visual thinking design business futures user researchbusiness & policy models strategic foresight sLab strategic foresight & innovation model

6. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Innovation is about what people want Rooted in a heritage of design thinking, our approach places human needs, desires, behaviour and culture at the heart of ‣ problem finding ‣ problem framing ‣ problem solving

7. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/ What is strategic foresight? Foresight involves thinking about, debating, planning, and actively shaping the future Foresight makes sense of emerging signals from science and technology, socio-cultural domains, markets, legal and political environments

8. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Foresight Horizon scanning Signals analysis Trends extrapolation Change drivers+blockers Scenario planning Wildcards+backcasting Business+Design Market research Design ethnography Sketching+prototyping Service blueprint Business modeling Strategic communications Foresight & innovation methods compared

9. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Foresight methods Adapted from Rafael Popper, “Foresight Methodology.” In Handbook of Technology Foresight, 2008,

10. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab ForesightInnovation Products Services Financial Performance Knowledge Capital Foresight feeds the innovation funnel

11. War Games at RAND Corporation, 1958. Photo Leonard Mccombe, Time Life/Getty images Foresight is born in post-War research

12. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Foresight spun off: from military to commercial

13. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design thinking (Herbert Simon 1969) Scenarios thinking (Global Business Network 1990s) Define Research Ideate Prototype Choose Implement Learn Orient Explore Synthesize Act Monitor Foresight and design thinking: closely related

14. Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight Trends are visible, directional patterns of change, surface ripples that rise and fall Driving forces (drivers), like deep ocean currents, are structural patterns of power or influence such as global competition or urban migration Predetermined elements, like rocks in the sea bed, are features largely predictable in any scenario Critical uncertainties are drivers of significant import, which are unpredictable and difficult to call flickr.com/photos/andie712b/4104141524/ Foresight terminology

15. Principal Partner sLab at OCAD University Made possible by OMDC on behalf of the Ministry of Culture Strategic Foresight for Ontario’s Cultural Media Industries What will our media and entertainment look like by 2020?

16. Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight 2020 Media Futures Project Deliverables Horizon Scanning Signals and Trends Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Delphi Survey Critical Uncertainties Scenarios Workshop Alternative Futures MediaCamp Implications for Action Expert Interviews Distinctive Voices Visualization/Publication Key Findings/Messages

17. Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight 2020 Media Futures Industry Roundtables Book, Magazine, Music industries December 7 Film, TV, Interactive Media industries December 14 Professor Suzanne Stein and Karl Schroeder moderated.

18. Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight 2020 Media Futures Driving Forces

19. Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight 2020 Media Futures Delphi Survey

20. Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight 2020 Media Futures Scenarios diffusion of innovation value generation measured & risk averserapid & disruptive commercially driven socially driven Ministry of Investment Lords of the Cloud WediaAnt Hill

21. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab What can we learn? How not to fail

22. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab How actors and roles may change, creating new niches and new opportunities What can we learn?

23. Strategic Innovation Lab Ontario College of Art & Design 2009 viability Biz Design desirability Tech feasibility Nintendo Wii Fit What can we learn? Category creation

24. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab In Summary We are eager to leverage these interests, experiences, recent work, and strategic foresight methods, namely: ‣ Future Media (2020 Media Futures) ‣ Future Mobile Experience Innovation (MEIC) ‣ Rich understanding of North American context to identify potential research directions and partnerships with Canadian & European colleagues

25. Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Many thanks. Greg Van Alstyne Associate Professor, OCAD University gvanalstyne@faculty.ocad.ca Director of Research Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab) http://slab.ocad.ca Project Lead, 2020 Media Futures http://2020mediafutures.ca