The Arab Spring – Late modernization or something else?

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Presentation transcript:

The Arab Spring – Late modernization or something else?

- Muhammed Bouazizi Ben Ali Mubarak Qadhafi Saleh? (1978/1990- )

(Al-Jazeera) Morocco Mauretania Algeria Tunisia Libya Sudan Egypt Djibouti Somalia Yemen Oman Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Bahrain Kuwait Iraq Palestine Jordan Syria Lebanon

FreePartly FreeNot Free (Israel)LebanonAlgeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Oman Qatar UAE Yemen (Iran) West Bank/Gaza Tunisia Saudi Arabia Syria Libya Sudan (Freedom House 2011)

Expectations for a democratization of the Arab World in the 1990s: -The fall of the USSR - The democratization of eastern Europe (and Central Asia) - The Arab-Israeli peace process initiated in New generation of leaders

1 liberalization 2 transition 3 consolidation Phases of democratization  ”system maintenance” Tunisia 23 October Libya April 2012 Egypt November March/April 2012

David Lerner (1958) The Passing of Traditional Society

What characterizes a ”modern society”? -value pluralism -welfare development -market economy -mass consumption -competitive democracy “Modernization is the internal achievement of a society” (Berger 1996)

Year Algeria ,659,667102,9 Egypt ,466,456,662,99,43,1 Libya ,988,359,867,8132,2 Morocco ,358,257,764,1103,4 Tunisia ,168,613,34,3 GDP/capita adult literacy rate life expectancy unemploy- corruption US $ % years ment rate % score 10-1

Year Iraq ---74,16168,5181,5 Jordan ,891,16273,111,94,7 Lebanon ,666,572,4102,5 West Bank/Gaza ---93,862,773, Syria ,784,76374,69,22,5 GDP/capita adult literacy life expectancy unemploy- corruption US$rate % years rate score 10-1

Year Bahrain ,890,067,476154,9 Kuwait ,594,570,377,91,54,5 Oman ,360,176,1155,3 Saudi A ,76173,39,22,5 Qatar ,166,1760,57,7 UAE ,59062,177,712,76,3 GDP/capita adult literacy life expectancy unemploy- corruption $ rate % years ment rate scale 10-1 Yemen ,763,246,754,435%2,2

10 worst internet enemies ) Burma 2) China 3) Cuba 4) Iran 5) North Korea 6) Saudi Arabia 7) Syria 8) Turkmenistan 9) Uzbekistan 10) Vietnam (Reporters without borders)

PriorDuringAfter State monopoly on information broken Breaking of taboos Human rights abuses reported Online discussions, avoiding bans on assembly and organization + sharpening of arguments Campaigns for political prisoners, victims of police brutality etc Mobilization Witness reports Provide journalists with information Show that there is a critical mass Create solidarity Spread from one state to the other Online discussions Role of new media (satellite channels, internet & social media)