Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya Impacts of ENSO on Food Security in Horn of Africa Presented by Gideon Galu

FEWS NET - East Africa Outline Why FEWSNET and Climate ? ENSO impacts on Food Security ! Communicating “uncertainties” Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

What does FEWS NET do? Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Monitors 30+ countries Continuously assesses food security status Provides early warnings of food insecurity with 3-6 months lead-time Dec 2011

How does FEWSNET link to climate ? Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Incorporating weather and climate-related shocks and vulnerabilities into food insecurity forecasts: Next week’s rainfall: --- weather forecast Seasonal outcome: --- climate outlook forum Future climate projections ? --- impacts on food security Dec 2011 Nov 2010 Assess likely shocks and drivers of vulnerability

Food Security Outlook Analytical Approach Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Integrates climate with socio-economic geospatial layers Hazards + Household Vulnerability = Food insecurity Define focus area(s)

Recent El-Nino Events & Impacts Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts 2004 SPI :OND El-Nino rainfall impacts are NOT similar. BUT, are often associated with above average seasonal normal rains over Eastern Horn 2006 SPI:OND 2009 SPI :OND

ENSO + IOD Events & Impacts Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Characterization of geographical rainfall impacts and severity

Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Marginal maize cropping zones at high risk of crop failures Average WRSI/Maize Performance: SOND’2001/13 Variability in WRSI/Maize Performance:SOND’2001/13 On average during the short-rains, the maize performance is likely to be between mediocre to failure ( 30%). Current maize crop vulnerabilities

FEWS NET Food Security Scenario’s Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Communicating climate vulnerability + prediction uncertainties STEP 1: Set scenario parameters STEP 2: Describe and classify current food security STEP 3: Develop key assumptions STEP 4: Describe impacts on HH income sources STEP 5: Describe impacts on HH food sources STEP 6: Develop response assumptions STEP 7: Describe and classify projected HH food security STEP 8: Describe and classify projected area food security STEP 9: Identify events which could change the scenario

Seasonal Forecast & Assumptions: Sept.2014 Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts 2014 October – December forecasts and assumptions… Analogue SPI : SOND’2013 October to December short rains for Eastern Horn of Africa are likely to be average to slightly above average in amount. There is some risk for river flooding and flash floods in flood- prone areas of the eastern Horn. Western Horn is likely to be average to above-average, it may be poorly distributed over time and space. Source: ICPAC

Agro-Climatic Assumptions: SOND’2014 Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Delayed/erratic onset & potential crop failures over eastern Horn Delayed/erratic start of season Poor cropping season over E. Horn Increased likelihood for significantly delayed onset and poor quality of the cropping season over Eastern Horn!

El-Nino Based Flood Scenario’s Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts 2014 Flood Scenarios Short-rains Long-rains Mild El-Nino Severe El-Nino Moderate El-Nino

Food Security Outlook – Sept/Oct. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Food Security Outlook Scenario for Oct-Dec.’2014 Food security Outlook: Oct.-Dec,2014 Increased likelihood for gradual improvement in food security conditions due to the anticipated increase in agriculture production over parts of eastern and western Horn of Horn.

Continuous monitoring & updating scenarios Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts ? ? ? #1 : Ethiopia/Somali Region #2 : Somalia/Bay Region #3 : Kenya/Northeastern Region Above-Average Average Below-Average

2014 Erratic ENSO + IOD Development Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts (Source: BoM) Uncertainties in current ENSO + IOD warming trends… NOAA/CPC & FEWS NET science teams continuously monitor and update climatic assumptions

2014/15 Food Security Outlook Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Food security outlook: OND,2014 …gradual food security improvements over eastern Horn to stressed level! Food security outlook: JFM,2015 Currently 12.4M people require humanitarian assistance in the region Influenced by forecast weak El-Nino event 1.5M 3.2M 1.025M 3.5M 0.22M 0.45M 0.27M 0.59M 0.11M 1.5M

Recommendations Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts  Establish reliable knowledge-base and analytical approaches to better characterize ENSO events and their rainfall impacts.  Improve understanding of underlying livelihoods vulnerabilities to current climatic trends.  Developing sector-specific outlook scenarios, with option B.  Recognizing the “dynamic nature of ENSO events” and need for effective continuous monitoring and assumptions updating within the season… How do we narrow-down ENSO forecast “uncertainties” and communicate action-able Early Warning Information??

Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya Presented by Gideon Galu