1. 2018/19 Seasonal Outlook Citrus Australia
2019 Technical Forum - Adelaide
Darren Ray
Senior Climatologist -South Australian State Office
Agriculture Program, Bureau of Meteorology
Photo: Just east of Bourke, on way to Brewarrina, NSW. August 2018.

2. Bureau of Meteorology Agriculture Program
Bureau Agriculture Program
Team of 12
1 of 5 focal sectors which make up the Business Solutions Group
Draw on Bureau to deliver tailored solutions for customers
National Forecast Services
Data & Digital
Science & Innovation
Ag Program is the front door into the Bureau for agriculture
Sector leads for horticulture, viticulture, grains, livestock, seafood, dairy, sugar, cotton
Agriculture
Water
Rest of Bureau
Business Solutions
Transport
Energy & Resources
National Security
Customer Experience

3. Recent conditions Recent conditions Climate influences
Seasonal outlook

4. Rainfall
2018
Summer 2018/19
rain percentiles standard map ausmd col pngsep

5. Temperature
2018
Summer 2018/19

6. Soil moisture and storages
Current modelled difference from average of soil moisture in the top 1m layer

7. Climate influences Recent conditions Climate influences
Seasonal outlook

8. El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Neutral phase

9. El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

10. Update with latest weekly data
ENSO Outlook
Difference from average of sea surface temperature
Niño 3.4
Could show also August 2015 to demonstrate what a strong El Nino looks like
Update with latest weekly data

11. ENSO Outlook Climate model forecasts of NINO3.4 La Niña El Niño
An increased risk of an El Niño event developing this autumn

12. Seasonal outlook
Recent conditions
Climate influences
Seasonal outlook

13. For latest see: http://cmap.bom.gov.au/ncwb/ncwb.shtml
Rainfall outlook – March to May 2019
March
Chance of exceeding median rainfall
For latest see:
April

14. Maximum temperature outlook – March to May 2019
Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature
Skill maps updated for OND
Large map height 9.7
Small map height 5.7
April

15. How much warmer than average?
Difference from average –maximum temperature Likelihood of maximum temperature in top 20%
March
April

16. Typical winter/spring in El Niño

17. Agriculture Program

18. Finding improved value through tailored products
New forecasting and medium/seasonal outlook information

19. Finding improved value through tailored products
Likelihood of significant rainfall through harvest? What is expected in other regions globally?

20. Vernon Carr
Horticulture sector lead