Recommendations for space weather products and services in Europe: report on WG2 work Recommendations for space weather products and services in Europe: report on WG2 work in progress Ronald Van der Linden, Mike Hapgood, Daniel Heynderickx, Iwona Stanislawska, Anna Belehaki, Mauro Messerotti ESWW9 – COST ES0803 Final event Brussels, Friday 9 November 2012

COST ESSEM DC Meeting 10/03/2008 The flow chart of the Action’s tasks

What is needed? e.g., severity of storm, onset time, duration, regions & boundaries [lat, long] When is it needed? Products needed to answer this question : extended outlook, warning, alert, updates, and current conditions How is it delivered? e.g., graphic and text form, distribution protocols Assessing Users’ Requirements per market sector: [Source: SWENET UR – DIAS UR – COST ES0803 Paris Workshop minutes – COST ES0803 SG2.1 and SG2.2 Surveys – discussions at ESWWx (e.g. during end user lunches)] The exploitation of this information is one of the main goals of the Action

SG 2.2 Identified users needs New assessment per market sector SG1.3 Improvements of SW products [prediction quality] SG 2.1 European Assets Catalogue (instruments, data, models, services) COST ES0803 catalogue ESA SN1 SG1.4 Analysis of European operational Platforms What/When is needed How it is delivered SG2.3 New types of products Improve existing products

Developed by Daniel Heynderickx, SG2.1

Developed by Daniel Heynderickx, SG2.1

Space weather resource catalogue Database with resource descriptions: – Generic: name, domain, reference,... – Contact person information – Resource type specific information: model, data, instrument, service – Current status: ~80 resources have been entered – Still to be done: assimilation of SN1 database Access through web interface at – Access is open for browsing and downloading of PDF version – Registration required for adding or editing information 7

Interface functionality Catalogue search using optional domain and keyword filters Pop-up window with all resource information and cross-links to or from services User registration Registered users can add resources Registered users can edit resources: – Update information – Delete resources – Transfer resources to other users Download of PDF version of the catalogue (current version is on the web site of the Action) 8

The future of the SW resource catalogue DH Consultancy will continue hosting the database and web interface beyond ES0803 The catalogue can be opened beyond Europe, several users have expressed interest (from Africa, US) Development of web service access for integration in other services, e.g. ESWEP; current link can be augmented with search function Please add resources! Almost nothing so far from non-ESA countries and Eastern Europe! 9

Input from RWCs RWC representatives participate in COST ES0803 Action as MC members and experts Important input has been received based on their experience to work with users, to assess their needs, to provide them with space weather information in a way that it is easy for them to understand and use the data/products for their applications

RWC Brussels

RWC Warsaw

Input from the COST ES0803 Users’ Meeting held in PAS/Paris in March 2010

Spacecraft operators need: Situational awareness of space weather so that they understand what is happening to their spacecraft and can quickly analyse anomalies; Assured European long-term access to data/models/effects in order to correlate spacecraft effects with environmental conditions; Alarms to warn teams of adverse conditions; Models validation; Assessment of hardware components behavior to various space weather conditions Galileo needs: support single-frequency receivers of the Galileo signal as these must use an ionospheric model to correct for group delay; monitor and understand the occurrence of scintillations; warn of adverse conditions; design of robust receivers EGNOS needs: better information on current levels of disturbance due to space weather, especially ionospheric scintillation; assessment of the integrity of the service against current space weather

Aviation operations needs: Warnings and nowcasting on HF radio communications; Specification of the severity of space weather effects expected at a particular time and geolocation, the confidence level on that information and the timeliness of its delivery to users; Calculation of the aircrew exposure to cosmic radiation (upward trend due to the extended solar minimum); Mitigation of radiation risks to aircrew: (a) better handling of space weather inputs into flight planning, (b) early warning of high radiation fluxes, (c) improved on- board monitoring of radiation levels and improved procedures to respond to warnings from such monitoring. Military needs: radio spectrum management; ability to distinguish space weather impacts from interference by hostile human activity And all of this: in a standardised format and language appropriate for its users, validated with indications of confidence levels and accompanied by training material and guidelines

Automatic tools to predict solar activity (Ahmed et al., 2011; Colak & Qahwaji 2011) Forecasting SEP Events (Núñez, 2011) Warnings for geomagnetic disturbances (Saiz et al., 2008). Nowcasting and forecasting the K index (Kutiev et al., 2009) Forecast of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit scintillations of Pc5 type (Degtyarev et al., 2009; Degtyarev et al., 2010; Potapov and Polyushkina, 2010). 3D specification of the electron density structure up to GNSS heights (Belehaki et al., 2012; Kutiev et al., 2012b) Method for thermospheric monitoring (Mikhailov et al., 2012) Nowcasting and forecasting models of ionospheric parameters at the peak height with an accuracy range (Tsagouri, 2011; Pietrella, 2012; Hoque & Jakowski 2012) Maps of vertical TEC calculated in real-time with activity index (Bergeot et al., 2011) Real-time GIC analyser software (Viljanen, 2011) Advanced data analysis techniques to correlate satellite anomaly data for different orbits with various characteristics of space weather, using reach databases of anomalies recordings (Dorman, 2012) New space weather products to meet the users’ needs developed by COST ES0803 experts

Lessons learned/outcomes from COST ES0803: Improvements of SW prediction models is a recurrent tasks that aims at the satisfaction of the needs of the users, taking also into account the technical specifications of the critical infrastructures that need to be protected from SW risks Standardization of the SW products and services should be the next major challenge for the community WMO activity! Work is ongoing through a number of projects