What’s Next in Lighting? Overview of Seventh Power Plan Findings on Commercial Lighting Conservation Potential

Outline  Fun Facts from CBSA  Overview of 7P Technical Potential  Ch Ch Ch Changes  Insights 2

FUN FACTS 3

Fun Facts CBSA: A Treasure Trove of Data 4

Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use 6000 aMW Electric Sales

Lighting Uses about 30% of Total Commercial Building Electricity 6

Indoor: About 3600 Lighting Hours/Year 7

8 (95% C.I.) Connected Power: One Watt per SF (more or less)

Lighting Power by Fixture Category 9 Indoor Watts per SF Non-Parking Row LabelsExisting LPD Linear Fluorescent 0.65 LED - Recessed Can CFL Incandescent LED Display Track CFL Incandescent LED High/Low Bay Linear Fluorescent HID LED Other CFL Incandescent LED Total0.99

Little Difference in LPD by Vintage : Except Offices & Other 10

Newer & Older Offices Show Similar Range in LPD 11 LPD Mean 1.05 Median1.10 Code0.91

Little Difference Between Urban and Rural Lighting Power 12

One Quarter of Sites Are Better than Average by 20% or more 13

Other Fun Facts Available from CBSA  About 800 buildings  Over 14,000 lighting subspace ‘zones’  About 40 lighting variables each zone  Fixture type, count, format  Lamp type, count, wattage  Ballast details  Controls type, span, functionality  Renovation rates 14

CH CH CH CHANGES 15 ‘TURN AND FACE THE STRANGE’

Notable Changes  Baseline Step Up  LED making inroads by 2016  HID fading  Previous momentum savings: Gone Gone 16

Lighting Standards  Lighting Standards in Sixth Plan forecast  General Service Incandescent (2012)  Mercury Vapor (2008)  Eight New Lighting Standards in Seventh Plan  General Service Fluorescent Lamps (2018)  General Service Fluorescent Lamps (2012)(2014)  Fluorescent Ballasts (2015)  Metal Halide Fixtures (2012)  Halogen Reflector Lamps (2012)  Candelabra Lamps (2012)  Ceiling Fan Light Kits (2010)  Torchieres (2010) 17

Over 160 aMW of Lighting Savings Have Been Removed from 7P Potential Due to Standards 18 Does not include savings from new GSFL standard effective 2018

Standards Reduce Baseline LPD in Existing Stock 19

LED Share of 2016 Sales Significant SSL Uptake in Baseline (not part of targets) 20 TypeSub Type DOE Forecast for 2015 DOE Forecast for 2016 BPA/Cadeo Estimates Forecast 2016 Council Forecast Baseline 2016 General ServiceAll19%35%10%12% DirectionalPAR Lamp25%40%25%30% DirectionalPAR Fixture4%5% DownlightDL Lamp5%8%5%6% DownlightDL Luminaire2% 5%2% Linear Fluorescent FixtureCommercial8%16%5%6% Low/High BayCommercial4%10%5%6% Street & RoadwayAll31%40%50%40% ParkingLot20%27%25% ParkingGarage13%18%20%18% ExteriorAll17%36%25% HighBayHP LF Lamp15% Linear FluorescentHP LF Lamp15% Linear FluorescentT-LED Line Voltage Lamp6% Linear FluorescentT-LED Over FL Ballast Lamp6% Recessed CanLED lamp for Can6% DirectionalCeramic MH Lamp20% General ServiceCFL30%

Despite All That Progress… 21

TECHNICAL POTENTIAL 22

Technical Potential What the Data Represent  Inputs to Regional Portfolio Model (RPM)  Achievable potential, cost & pace  These are not conservation targets!  Cost-effectiveness & targets determined later  RPM Will Analyze Resource Options  Conservation  Generation  Demand Response  Market Purchases 23

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26 Commercial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Lighting Electronics HVAC Refrigeration Food Preparation Process Loads Motors/Drives Compressed Air12442 Water Heating Grand Total Lighting 40% of Savings Potential Commercial Sector Savings Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Total Savings about 3.9 kWh/sf

Commercial Lighting Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Commercial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Lighting LPD Package Low Power LF Lamps Lighting Controls Interior Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting LEC Exit Sign

Using Forecast 2017 Cost & Performance for LED 28

7P Lighting Proxy Measures Linear Fluorescent Measures 29 Applic ation MeasureTRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Savings (% Delta Watt) NewNew LED Fixture$4937% NRLED Fixture or Kit$5137% NRLED Fixture or Kit with Redux Lumens$1250% NRHigh Efficiency Fluor Fixture$633% NRTube LED Direct Line Voltage$3523% NRTube LED Direct Line Voltage Redux Lumens$438% NRLow Watt Fluorescent Lamp (28W & 25W) $246% RetroLamp Only - Tube LED Over Ballast $19615% RetroLamp Only - Tube LED Over Ballast Redux Lumens $6832%

7P Lighting Proxy Measures Recessed Can Measures 30 Applic ation MeasureTRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Savings (% Delta Watt) NewNew LED Fixture (Halogen Base) $ (80) 90% NewNew LED Fixture (CFL Base) $ (19) 63% NRNew LED Fixture (Halogen Base) $(78) 90% NRNew LED Fixture (CFL Base) $ (12) 63% RetroNew LED Fixture (Halogen Base) $ (56) 90% RetroNew LED Fixture (CFL Base) $ 82 63% RetroLamp Only – (Halogen Base) $(71) 89% RetroLamp Only – (CFL Base) $ 5 59%

7P Lighting Proxy Measures Plus Many Many More 31 Applic ation Measure BundleNumber of Measures TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Savings (% Delta Watt) AllDisplay Track10($30) -$11017% - 60% AllHigh Bay8$2 - $8637% - 66% AllOmni Directional3($100) - ($7)37% - 84% AllExterior Façade4($15) - ($20)60% - 80% AllExterior Parking Lot6($3) - $760% - 80% AllExterior Area Lighting6($40) – ($18)60% - 80% AllParking Garage 6$30 - $8070% – 80% AllStreet & Roadway 10($100) - $2050% - 70%

Exit Signs Too! watts 4 watts 0.4 watts

INSIGHTS 33

Insights  Ingredients: Design, SSL, Controls  Too many technology options appearing too fast to be prescriptive in programs  Reduce Power and Hours  Pace: Will new technology increase turnover?  ‘Smart’ confounded & conflated with NEB  Significant market momentum, new market players, little stability  It’s going to be like ……… 34

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