1. Achievable Penetration Rates
The Pace of Conservation Acquisition
April 17, 2009
Conservation Resources Advisory Committee

2. Outline in Two Parts Part 1 Part 2 Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions
Sensitivity Testing
slide 2

3. Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual Rates
Based on Comments & Further Thought
slide 3

4. Revisions: Industrial
Slowed down two important new measures:
From New Measure - Fast to New Measure - Medium
Energy Project Management
Integrated Plant Energy Management
Represent about 20% of industrial savings
slide 4

5. Revisions: Distribution Efficiency
Formerly All at “New Measure - Medium”
Now: Split by Measure Bundle
System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - Fast
System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - Slow
Light System Improvements at New Measure - Slow
Major System Improvements at New Measure - Slow
slide 5

6. Revisions: Commercial
Measure Mar Previous
LPD Package-New LO 20Fast LO Fast
LPD Package-NR LO 20Fast LO Fast
Lighting Controls Interior-New LO Medium LO Fast
Lighting Controls Interior-NR LO Medium LO Fast
Glass-Retro Retro in 20 Retro in 10
Demand Control Ventilation-NR LO Slow LO Medium
Roof Insulation-NR LO Fast Retro in 10
Computer Servers and IT-Retro LO Slow LO Medium
Street and Roadway Lighting-NR LO Slow LO Medium
slide 6

7. Residential Consumer Electronics Heat Pump Water Heater
New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years
LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014
Heat Pump Water Heater
Emerging Technology Ramp Rate
slide 7

8. Results
slide 8

9. Lost-Opportunity
slide 9

10. Retrofit
slide 10

11. Comparative Max Rates 6th PLAN 2010 2014 2019
$100/MWh 35
120
200
$60/MWh
140
160
Total
175
280
360
5th PLAN
2005
2009
2014
$100/MWh 15 40 85
$60/MWh
120
Total
135
160
205
slide 11

12. slide 12

13. Reality Check Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 Expect higher in 2008
Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too
Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs
But CFL savings not in 6th Plan targets
Many New Measures
Higher Avoided Costs
Federal Standards Push
State Code Revisions in the Works
slide 13

14. 5th Plan Targets Seemed Daunting
(130 to 150 MWa)
Historic Performance
slide 14

15. Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing
Purpose:
What is the Value of Going Faster?
What is the Cost of Going Slower?
What are the Resource Consequences?
What are the Revenue Requirements?
Tool: Portfolio Model
Test Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration
Issue: What Ranges?
slide 15

16. Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing Staff Proposal
Lost-Opportunity
SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized cost
FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized cost
Non-Lost-Opportunity
SLOW: 5th Plan Rate
FAST: Washington I-937 rate
All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced
slide 16

17. Test Slow & Fast Deployment Rates
Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa
2010
2014
2019
Lost-Opportunity SLOW
Up to $60/MWh 29
100
168
Lost-Opportunity FAST
Up to $120/MWh 36
123
206
Non-Lost Opportunity SLOW
5th Plan Maximum
120
Non-Lost Opportunity FAST
All in 10 years (I-937)
160
slide 17

18. Annual Deployment Rates for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources
slide 18

19. Annual Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity Resources
slide 19

20. Annual Deployment Rates for All Conservation Resources
slide 20

21. Cumulative Deployment Rate for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources
slide 21

22. Cumulative Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity Resources
slide 22

23. Cumulative Deployment Rate for All Resources
slide 23

24. End
slide 24