Summary of the Report, “Federal Research and Development Needs and Priorities for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling” 22 September 2004 Walter D. Bach, Jr. Cochair, OFCM Joint Action Group on Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Research and Development Plan Program Manager, Environmental Sciences Division U.S. Army Research Office Presentation for -- Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers

Outline Purpose User’s Needs from User’s Perspective Model Capabilities to Meet User’s Needs Modeling and Measurement Research Needs R&D Strategy to Meet User’s Needs Recommendations The Path Forward

Purpose Present a research and development (R&D) plan for providing the ATD modeling capabilities needed to meet established needs of the user communities, with special emphasis on enabling the National strategy for responding to domestic Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear incidents The Plan is directed to the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR)

User Needs from User’s Perspective Range of Users / Uses -  First Responders => Incident Commanders => Emergency Managers => Federal Responders => Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security  Emergency Preparedness and Response (Planning, Response, and Recovery)  Military Operations, Air Quality

User Needs from User’s Perspective (Continued) Scope of Incident -  Local => Regional => National Communication Concerned with Public Safety  Wants a workable answer in user’s time frame  Wants one accurate answer  Recognizes uncertainty in model results

Consequence Assessment System Meteorological Inputs: Observations Forecasts Source Term (where, when, how much) ATD Input Processing Transport and Diffusion Code Human Health Effects and Environmental Effects Concentrations Downwind Deposition (vapor, liquid, and solids) Model Capabilities Required to Meet User Need

ATD Modeling Uncertainty Uncertainty measured by the variance The total model uncertainty is measured by the variance in the predicted and the observed quantity over a large number of events that have similar properties (an ensemble). Contributions to Model Uncertainty: Internal: Numerical approximations, modeling errors, and treatment of dynamical processes External: Data errors in execution and evaluation, model parameterizations, and initial & boundary conditions Stochastic: Natural variability of the atmosphere

1 mm 1 cm 1 m 10 m 100 m 1 km 10 km 100 km 1000 km Horizontal grid spacing Wind Tunnel Building Urban Storm Fronts Synoptic CFD GAP (open area) GAP (open area) mesoscale GCM Transport And Diffusion Scales And Model Grid Sizes DNSLES

1 mm 1 cm 1 m 10 m 100 m 1 km 10 km 100 km 1000 km Horizontal grid spacing Wind Tunnel Building Urban Storm Fronts Synoptic Modeling Gap Modeling Gap Measurement Capabilities at Transport And Diffusion Scales Rawinsondes ACARSRADAR Daytime Boundary Layer Sfc Obs Surface Layer

Modeling and Measurement Research Needs Bridge the gap from mesoscale to microscale models Improve characterization of surface boundary conditions in model parameterizations and in input data sets Test and refine physical basis for sub-grid parameterizations Characterize dispersion in complex environments Develop methods and technologies for improving ensemble construction and implementation

Modeling and Measurement Research Needs (Continued) Develop and test techniques to better estimate wet and dry deposition and chemical reactions Improve tracer materials and detection technology Improve atmospheric boundary layer measurement capabilities Improve and evaluate sensor fusion techniques Improve and evaluate data QA/QC and assimilation techniques for initial and boundary conditions

An R&D Strategy to Meet User Needs COORDINATED AGENCY SUPPORT & FUNDING GOALS MEASUREMENT CAPABILITIES MODEL EVAL STANDARDS ATD TEST BEDS BRIDGE THE SCALE GAP CAPTURE AND USE EXISTING DATA SETS LOCAL/ REGIONAL MEASUREMENT SITING Routinely Quantify Uncertainty Interpret Uncertainty OBJECTIVES

Recommendations  Quantify model uncertainties and interpret their implications to users  Capture and use existing data sets  Implement ATD test beds  Develop standards for evaluating modeling system performance  Improve the spatial and temporal scale interactions between meteorological and ATD models  Improve measurement technologies  Design and conduct special studies and experiments

The Path Forward Receive and incorporate your feed-back Print the report (Oct 2004) Brief ICMSSR Brief FCMSSR

Questions ? Comments ?

Charge to the JAG Identify any additional research needs that resulted from the 7 th annual GMU Transport and Dispersion Modeling Conference (June 2003) Review the results of the Joint Urban 2003 experiment at Oklahoma City (DTRA/DHS 2003) Identify any scenarios (in addition to the scenarios used in the JAG/SEATD) that are not addressed satisfactorily by the modeling systems documented in the JAG/SEATD report Characterize and prioritize the research and technical needs and link those needs to stated operational requirements

Charge to the JAG (Continued) Consult with subject-matter experts as required Identify the tools required for transitioning successful research results into operations through interagency cooperative efforts like observational and modeling test beds, field and urban studies/experiments, and a common model evaluation methodology Present the results of the study to the 8 th annual GMU T&D Conference and the OFCM Urban Meteorology Forum

Model Capabilities Required to Meet User Needs