GRAIN MARKET TRANSPARENCY: IMPROVING PUBLIC-PRIVATE DATA AND INFORMATION SHARING

GRAIN MARKET IN EGYPT 2

Agenda Grain Cultivation in Egypt Wheat Market Size in Egypt Corn Market Size in Egypt Data Market Transparency and Problems in Egypt

GRAIN CULTIVATION IN EGYPT Total cultivated area in million Feddans Total cropping area in million feddans Total cropping area for grain in million feddans A large part of this area is used to cultivate grains; with the main grains in Egypt being; wheat, rice, white corn, yellow corn, thin corn and barley. These grains are of great importance in the prevailing food pattern in Egypt; complementing each other in filling the food gap, whether for human or animal consumption in the country. 49.4% 4

Cropping area for grain cultivation in Egypt in 2012, 2013 and 2014 Grain Cropping area in feddans (2012) % Cropping area in feddans (2013) % Cropping area in feddans (2014) % Wheat3,160, %3,401, %3,413, % Rice1,476,8709.6%1,421,6659.2%1,365,9618.7% White corn2,091, %1,940, %1,907, % Yellow corn388,1912.5%512,9993.3%566,9873.6% Thin corn339,8962.2%337,2072.2%353,4872.2% Barley66,0950.4%188,3661.2%143,8440.9% Total cultivated area 7,522, %7,801, %7,751, % Total cropping area 15,406,93015,490,12315,689,633 5

WHEAT MARKET SIZE IN EGYPT 6

LOCAL PRODUCTION OF WHEAT ( ) 7

Wheat Imports in Egypt 8

Wheat Consumption (market size) in Egypt YearProductionImportsConsumptionGrowth rate Imports vs. Consumption 20047,1778,14015,31753% 20058,1417,76115, %49% 20068,2747,28815,562(% 2.1-)47% 20078,3797,63816,0172.9%48% 20087,9779,78617, %55% 20098,52310,29118,8145.6%55% 20107,1699,79016,959(% 9.9-)58% 20118,37010,21518,5859.6%55% 20128,79510,65619,4514.7%55% 20139,460 10,724 20, % 53% 20149,280 10,897 20,177(% 0.03-) 54% Source: FAPRI Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute, FAPRI. 9

Average per capita consumption of wheat in Egypt in kg. 10

CORN MARKET SIZE IN EGYPT 11

The cropping area for the different types of corn in 2014 Corn Type (Summer & Nile Crop) Cropping Area of old land Cropping Area of Newly Reclaimed Land Total Cropping Area Area in Feddans% % % White Corn Yellow Corn Thin Corn Total

Development in the cropping area of corn, with its various types, in feddans 13

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Corn Production in Egypt Types of corn White corn - Summer crop Nile Crop Total - Growth rate % (% 7.7 -) (%3.4 -) % (%7.7 -) ( -2.1%) Yellow corn - Summer crop Nile Crop Total - Growth rate % % ( % 3.9- ) % % % 14.8 Thin corn - Summer crop Nile Crop Total - Growth rate (% 9.9-) (% ) % (% 9.8- ) % % Total production - Annual growth rate % (% 6.9-) (% 2.1-) % (% 1.5-) % 15

Development in the production of corn types in Egypt in tons, from 2009 until

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Corn Imports in Egypt Total quantity of imported corn to Egypt in the last six years and the growth rate: YearTotal Quantity (tons)Growth Rate 20082,457, ,939, % 20105,054, % 20117,041, % 20125,803, % 20136,077, % 20148,572, % 20158,211, % 18

Comparing Quantities of Imported corn in Egypt, from 2010 until

Corn Consumption in Egypt The average total annual consumption of corn in Egypt, with all its types, reached around 15 to 16 million tons. Around 50% of the consumed quantities are locally produced and the other 50% are provided through importation from other countries. The total quantity of corn, with all its types, produced in Egypt reached around 8.86 million tons in 2014, after it was around 8.7 million tons in 2013, at an average of around 8.8 million tons; and an expected increase in the quantities of corn produced locally in 2015 and 2016; as a result of the government ’ s efforts to encourage the cultivation of corn on account of rice; while the quantity of corn that was imported in 2014 reached around 8.5 million tons; and around 8.2 million tons in Even though the quantities of corn available in the Egyptian market during the year are 17 million tons; 8.8 million tons of local corn and 8.2 million tons of imported corn; nonetheless the actual consumed quantities are less than that. 20

It is worth mentioning that importers and traders of grains and corn in Egypt pointed out that the average consumption of imported corn in Egypt is around 7 million tons per year; while the monthly consumption is at least 580 thousand tons. As for the additional quantity, which ranges between one million and one million and a half tons of imported corn, it is a quantity stored by importers, representing an end of year stocks that is marketed by importers the following year (new year). Even though the consumption of yellow corn reached around 10 million tons, of which 1.83 million tons are locally produced and 8.2 million tons are imported, less than a fifth of this quantity is provided via local production and four fifth via importation from abroad. However, one shouldn ’ t look at yellow corn separately, but rather at the total consumption of corn, with all its types. The reason for this is that white corn is mainly used in Egypt in animal feed; whether by the farmer who raises animals and birds or through its sale to feed mills, as well as to large cattle farms to be used in the production of animal feed. Accordingly, any shortage in its production in Egypt is compensated for through importation from abroad. Moreover, thin corn is also used as feed for birds, especially pigeons, and as feed for horses and donkeys in Upper Egypt. ….Corn Consumption in Egypt 21

Data Market Transparency & Problems in Egypt 22

Data Sources Primary Data Sources Secondary Data Sources Internal Record sales/ patronage Results (Outcomes) Marketing Activity (Input) Cost Information Distributor Reports and Feedback Customer Feedback sales/ patronage Results (Outcomes) Marketing Activity (Input) Cost Information Distributor Reports and Feedback Customer Feedback External Sources Electronic Published Data Printed Government Trade Associations Periodicals Newspapers Books Annual Reports Private Studies Government Trade Associations Periodicals Newspapers Books Annual Reports Private Studies Standardized Sources of Marketing Internet Store Audits Warehouse withdrawal Services Consumer Purchase Panels Single Source Data Nielsen’s Television Index Starch Scores Arbitron Panel Multimedia Service Store Audits Warehouse withdrawal Services Consumer Purchase Panels Single Source Data Nielsen’s Television Index Starch Scores Arbitron Panel Multimedia Service

Secondary Data Sources in Egypt Information & Decision Support Center (IDSC) Industrial & Trade Chambers Chamber of Cereals Industry Chamber of Food Industries Organizations General Organization for Export & Import Control General Authority for Free Zones & Investments (GAFI) Industrial Development Authority (IDA) Ministries Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Supply Maritime Transport Sector (MIS) Central Agency for Public Mobilization & Statistics (CAPMAS)

Benefits & Limitations of Secondary Data 25 BenefitsLimitations 1.Low cost 1.Collected for some other purpose 2.Less effort expended2.No control over data collection 3.Less time taken3.May not be very accurate 4.Sometimes more accurate than primary data 4.May not be reported in the required form 5.Some information can be obtained only from secondary data 5.May be outdated 6.May not meet data requirements 7.A number of assumptions have to be made

26 Secondary Data Problems in Egypt Withholding data out of fear that the media might wrongly use it; or doubting the intention of the person requesting the data, as per orders by ministers and leaders for not providing recent information. Delay in publishing the data related to the agriculture, economy, agricultural and industrial production. To date no data was published for the year 2015 in any ministry. The exception is import and export data, which is only delayed by CAPMAS for 4 months. The data is not current and there is a time lag between data collection & publication; as is the case with the census data. Moreover, the data is not updated. Inaccurate and conflicting data across the different agencies, such as CAPMAS, GOEIC; with regards to imports & exports The lack of trust in official data by a large part of the private investment sector in Egypt; especially data of agricultural & industrial production, stocks, etc. The lack of the required data or the availability of such data in an form that isn’t what is required; or merging data together making it difficult to benefit from it

Thank you 27