The 21 st Century Wildland Firefighting Triangle

What is this triangle? A look at the changing fire environment for today’s wildland firefighters A tool to stimulate a discussion on firefighter’s adaptations to a new set of conditions An addition to existing triangle

??? LET’S START CONSTRUCTION I’ve got a feeling I’m not going to like this…

INCREASED FUEL LOADING

A BRIEF HISTORY ON HUMAN TINKERING "Weeks Act" provides western states with funding for widespread wildfire suppression [1] the Forest Service adopted the policy of “all fires out by 10 AM” the morning after detection [2] 1998 – increasingly significant wildfires ignite a major review of wildfire suppression policies Current – attempts to return to a natural fire cycle through wildland fire use and prescribed burning techniques [1] U.S. Forest Service History, The Weeks Act, Forest History Society, 6/8/2011 [2] Pyne, S. Fire in America: A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire

TOUGH TO FIX OVERNIGHT Approximately 80,000 wildfires each year, roughly 265 are allowed to burn as wildland fire use [1] Wildfire Use – average 187,416 acres per year [2] 2015 Wildfires –10,125,149 acres [2] Overgrown forests commonly consist of 100 to 200 trees per acre, compared to a healthy forest of 40 to 60 trees per acre [3] Ponderosa Pine forest should have low intensity fires - 5 to 25 years [4] [1] Rocky Barker, American Forests, Surviving Wildfire [2] National Interagency Fire Statistics Report [3] San Bernardino County, Health Forest Initiative Program [4] Idaho Forest Products Commission

SOMETHING’S DIFFERENT…

Increased Fuel Loading ?? ONE SIDE IN - TWO TO GO What could be next?

HIGHER TEMPERATURES

IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE Summertime temps in western North America are projected to be 3.6 F to 9 F degrees higher by mid-century [1] Snowpack melting 1 to 4 weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago [1] By the end of this century, once-in-20-year extreme heat days are projected to occur every two or three years [2] [1] National Wildlife Federation -Threats-to-Wildlife/Global Warming and Wildfire [2] NASA - climate.nasa.gov/effects/

Annual Max Temp in Colorado from NOAA - National Climate Data Center Graph

Summer Max Temp in Colorado from NOAA - National Climate Data Center Graph -Situational awareness

Increased Fuel Loading ? Higher Temperatures THE BUILD CONTINUES What to add to hotter overgrown forests?

MORE VALUES AT RISK!

National Wildland Urban Interface 4.5 million homes at high or extreme risk from wildfire [1] Since 1990, 60% of home construction has occurred in the WUI [2] 2 million acres a year are added to WUI classification [2] [1] Insurance Journal Report 06/10/2015 [2]

Colorado Wildfire Exposure $ In Billions…with a B Low Risk – $18.63 Moderate Risk – $11.53 High Risk – $14.58 Extreme Risk – $13.91 Ranks 2 nd in the US with 16.9% of total homes at high or extreme risk [1] [1] Insurance Information Institute

BOULDER COUNTY WUI Study based on number of acres existing in the Wildland Urban Interface -ranked as the county with the highest wildfire risk in Colorado [1] -ranked the 10th highest risk county in the United States [1] [1] Understanding change: Wildfire in Boulder County, Colorado. Res. RMRS-RN-57. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service 10/2013

2010 Wildland Urban Interface Map ecowest.org/2013/06/20/mapping- the-wildland-urban-interface Dark Green – no housing Light Green – very low density housing Yellow - housing and vegetation intermingle Red - housing in the vicinity of contiguous wildland vegetation

Increased Fuel Loading More Values at Risk Higher Temperatures THE 21 st CENTURY TRIANGLE IS COMPLETE Hmm…I knew I wasn’t going to like this presentation

COLORADO WILDFIRE TRENDS 2002 – Hayman - 137,760 acres, 5 deaths, 133 homes lost - 1 st largest fire by acreage 2010 – Four Mile – 6,181, 169 homes lost - 4 th most destructive fire 2012 – High Park – 87,284 acres, 1 death, 248 homes lost - 3 rd most destructive fire 2012 – Waldo Canyon – 18,247 acres, 2 deaths, 346 homes lost - 2 nd most destructive fire 2013 – Black Forest – 14,280 acres, 2 deaths, 511 homes lost - 1 st most destructive fire 2013 – West Fork Fire – 110,405 acres – 2 nd largest fire by acreage

NOT ALL BAD NEWS! Reducing the Fuel Loading -Wildfire mitigation becoming more prevalent Returning Wildfire to the Environment -Number of Prescribed Fires in ,277 -Number of Prescribed Fires in 2015 – 37,263 [1] Improvement in WUI building codes and community planning for wildfire events [1] National Interagency Report

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU? The wildland fire situation is changing – let’s change with it Time to revisit our wildland firefighting concepts -Situational awareness -Trigger points -Review of strategies and tactics