1. Global Warming Basics & Local Climate Change Impacts
Alan Journet & Kathy Conway Southern Oregon Climate Action Now
Hand out Group Sign Up sheet. Students put their names by one of the letters.
Teacher – help with time checks

2. Global Temperatures 1880 – 2015 cf 1951-1980
1.80
1.46
1.08
0.72 ⁰F
0.36
[1 minute] When we examine global temperatures, you can see that most of the warming has happened from about 1970 to present. The questions we’re exploring today is “What’s causing this trend?”
-0.36
-0.72

3. Basics of Global Warming
Transformed to Infra-red = heat.
Then what?
Remainder escapes into space
Basics of Global Warming
Some infra-red is absorbed by
atmospheric gases
Incoming Visible light
[7 minutes for 4 slides in this series] Ask group what is happening in this slide. Call on person (letter), then color for information. Then another person to add.
WARNING:
Not drawn to scale

4. Basics of Global Warming
Transformed to Infra-red = heat.
Then what?
Remainder escapes into space
Basics of Global Warming
Some infra-red is absorbed by
atmospheric gases
Incoming Visible light
Same as last slide but with animation to make sure that they got all the points.
WARNING:
Not drawn to scale

5. Less escapes into space Surface - Lower Atmosphere
Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentration
If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this ‘thermal blanket’
Ask them to identify what is happening here. Call on students as previously.
Warming
Surface - Lower Atmosphere

6. Less escapes into space Surface - Lower Atmosphere
Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentration
If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this ‘thermal blanket’
Same slide with animation
Warming
Surface - Lower Atmosphere

7. What are the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)?
[2-3 minutes for this one, Main Greenhouse Gases and Main sources of GHG] Get student responses – call on students as before.

8. The Main Greenhouse Gases
Methane
100 year GWP = 34
20 GWP = 86
Longevity ≈ decade
Longevity ≈ centuries
Carbon dioxide
100 year GWP = 1
CFC / HCFC
100 year GWP > 5,000
Nitrous oxide
Longevity ≈ 250 years
Longevity ≈ 10 Days
GWP=Global Warming Potential. Represents the relative warming impact on a pound for pound basis of GHG compared to CO2 that is designated as 1.
100 year GWP = 298
Water
Dihydrogen monoxide
Longevity ≈ century

9. What are the Sources of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)?
[2-3 minutes for this one, Main Greenhouse Gases and Main sources of GHG] Get student responses – call on students as before.

10. Main Sources of Greenhouse Gases
COAL
OIL / GASOLINE
NATURAL GAS
Students identify possible sources before showing. Point out that coal is mainly CO2, Oil/Gasoline results in CO2, but Natural gas results in Methane as well as CO2.
Methane Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide

11. Local Climate Trends and Projections
Each group will get one factor or consequence
The group will discuss their information and answer the questions
One person will be called upon to explain to the class what their information shows
Questions?
Hand out information
[5 minutes for group to prepare and 7 minutes to report] Group can use the bottom of the sheet with their names for notes. Everyone needs to be prepared to share. I will call on people to provide explanations.
Teacher: Help with management – stay on task, circulate and help students with their information.

12. Question to Answer for this group
What are the temperature trends and projections?

13. Factor 1: Jackson County Temperature
Minimum
Increase of about 7.8⁰F from 2005
Increase to 2005 about
1.4⁰F from 1950 – 2005 average
Increase of about 3.4⁰F from 2005
Maximum
Increase of about 8.1⁰F from 2005
Increase to 2005 about
1.5⁰F from 1950 – 2005 average
Increase of about 3.5⁰F from 2005
Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend
1-Black - up slightly
2-Red – up a lot
3-Blue – Up, but not as much as red
1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to the Jackson County Temperature?
2- What is the projected temperature increase if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)?
3 - What is the projected temperature increase if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)?

14. Question to Answer for this group
What are the precipitation trends and projections?

15. Factor 2: Jackson County Precipitation
Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend
1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to Jackson County Precipitation?
2- What is the projected precipitation trend if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)?
3 - What is the projected precipitation trend if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)?
1-Black - up and down
2-Red – up and down with a couple of higher spikes
3-Blue – up and down

16. Question to Answer for this group
What is the snow pack trend and projection?

17. Factor 3: Jackson County Snowpack – as Snow Water Equivalent
Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend
1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to Jackson County Snowpack?
2- What is the projected snowpack trend if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)?
3 - What is the projected snowpack trend if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)?
1-Black - up and down with slight down
2-Red – down quite a bit
3-Blue – Down, but not as much as red

18. Question to Answer for this group
What are the consequences of the projections in soil moisture?

19. Consequence 1: Jackson County Soil Moisture
Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend
1-Black - up and down
2-Red – Down – especially by 2100
3-Blue – Down from black, but not as much as red
1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to Jackson County Soil Moisture?
2- What is the projected soil moisture trend if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)?
3 - What is the projected soil moisture trend if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)?
4 – What are the likely consequences of this trend?

20. Question to Answer for this group
What are the trends and projections in western wildfires?

21. Consequence 2 Western Wildfires

22. Consequence 2 Western Wildfires
What has happened to the number of large wildfires in the western U.S. during the last 30 years? Increased from about 140 to 250.
What has happened to the length of the wildfire season in the western U.S. during the last 40 years? Increased from 5 months to more than 7 months
What is the projected trend in acreage burned during the coming century? Depends on where you are, but up to 650% increase in acres per year. Southern Oregon – around 400%.
What are the suggested explanations for these past and projected trends? Temperatures are rising, this results in snow pack melting earlier. Higher temperatures and less snow pack result in more and larger fires.
What has happened to the number of large wildfires in the western U.S. during the last 30 years?
What has happened to the length of the wildfire season in the western U.S. during the last 40 years?
What is the projected trend in acreage burned during the coming century?

23. SUMMARY
Global warming is driven by incoming solar radiation (visible wavelengths)
This transforms to heat radiation at Earth’s surface and radiates out
The outward radiating heat is trapped by greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Human activity is increasing the concentration of these GHGs in the atmosphere – hence global warming
Regional impacts are:
Increasing temperature
Variable but constant precipitations
Reducing snowpack
Reducing soil moisture
Increased wildfire risk
[2 minutes]