Where do we stand? THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION

How is the Economy Doing? Inflation Capital flight Entrepreneurial activity Foreign investment Petroleum income

What kind of democracy is evolving? Direct democracy vs representative democracy Economic democracy and wealth redistribution Individual liberties – without the right to organize?

How do foreign affairs intrude into domestic politics? Aspirations for regional leadership Mixed signals for Colombia’s insurgents MERCOSUR UNASUR – South American Defense Council Dancing with Fidel Castro Trying to create a “multi-polar” world Trapped in Washington’s sphere of influence

How much support does Chávez have? Opponents Supporters State of Public Opinion

OPPONENTS Middle class Unionized workers Local business community Church Political parties AD & COPEI MAS Primero Justicia

SUPPORTERS Military Bolivarians Urban poor Previously marginalized political and economic leaders

Public OPINION Problem of getting good data Hard-core support for Chávez Views of the opposition “Ni” “Ni” group

A L F R E D O KELLER y A S O C I A D O S Tendencia histórica en el nivel de agrado del Presidente Chávez La tendencia a la pérdida en el nivel de agrado de Hugo Chávez también es sostenida y lineal. Desde que se inició al mando del Ejecutivo ha perdido 73 puntos. La pérdida en lo que va del año 2001 es de 43 puntos. Agrado Desagrado Abr 99Jun 99Nov 99Abr 00Jul 00Ene 01Ago 01

Revocatory Referendum Provision of 1999 Consitution How much intimidation did the government attempt?

Getting Signatures to set Revocatory Referendum in Motion Late November – signatures to recall opposition congressional deputies Early December – signatures to recall President Chávez 3.45 million signatures turned in 1.2 million challenged Deadlock again

Opponents take to the streets – AGAIN

Chavez Survives the Recall Government agrees to revocatory referendum following successful “Reparos” of May 2004 Revocatory Referendum of August Missiones attract Chavista “light” voters 60% opt to keep Chavez in office Shocked opposition reacts badly to Chavez victory Leaders unprepared for loss Questionable claims of fraud further demoralize opposition

Chavez Survives the Recall Government agrees to revocatory referendum following successful “Reparos” of May 2004 Revocatory Referendum of August Missiones attract Chavista “light” voters 60% opt to keep Chavez in office Shocked opposition reacts badly to Chavez victory Leaders unprepared for loss Questionable claims of fraud further demoralize opposition

Opposition Decimated - Demoralized Regional and municipal elections Twenty one of twenty three governorships go to Chavez & allies Eighty percent of mayors to Chavez supporters Council Elections Eighty percent of municipal councilpersons to Chavez eighty percent of neighborhood councilpersons to Chavez & allies National Assembly Elections Opposition abstains Chavez and allies win all 167 seats

Presidential Election Campaign of 2006 Hugo Chavez uses his advantage as the incumbent portrays the election as an entryway to 21 st Century Socialism Continues to revel in role of defender of the poor I did it all for “love”

Hugo Chavez Frames the Election Opponent seldom mentioned by name Choice: Bolivarian Revolution or “Evil Empire” of George W. Bush

Manuel Rosales reanimates the opposition Governor of state of Zulia Overcomes image of being tied to Punto Fijo Major opposition forces unify behind Rosales candidacy Popularity in public opinion polls approaches 40%