Facing up to the Challenge of Climate Change: Policy and Politics Dr Robert McIlveen Research Fellow, Environment and Energy Unit

The Challenge of Climate Change The Science – we know we are in trouble

The Challenge of Climate Change The Science – we know we are in trouble The Politics – we have some idea of what to do about it but

The Challenge of Climate Change The Science – we know we are in trouble The Politics – we have some idea of what to do about it but –there are significant challenges for government: Public Opinion International co-ordination

The Challenge of Climate Change The Science – we know we are in trouble The Politics – we have some idea of what to do about it but –there are significant challenges for government: Public Opinion International co-ordination Economics is crucial but problematic

The Science Temperature increase of 2° C seen as the limit beyond which it gets really bad Which implies little room left before we exceed that limit Which implies massive cuts in current emissions to get anywhere close

The Economics Economists are from Mars, Environmentalists from Venus Stern brought economics into the debate –But with some dubious assumptions Lomborg comes to radical conclusion from conventional economics Trashing the economy is not an option

Long term public opinion 45% see Climate Change as the most serious threat to the future wellbeing of the world, but only 19% as the most serious threat to Britain 46% think the world community will come up with a solution against 36% who do not and 22% don’t know Source: Ipsos MORI “Turning Point or Tipping Point”

Short term opinion trends Source: Ipsos MORI

Policy Responses to Climate Change Mitigation: –International Diplomacy –Domestic policy Adaptation: –Does it mean giving up on mitigation? –UK context: flooding and other threats –International Aid and Climate Change

International Diplomacy Established approach: Rio 1992 to Copenhagen 2009 Why have results been disappointing? –Prisoner’s Dilemma

The Prisoner’s Dilemma Player 2 Player 1 SquealStay Silent Squeal8, 80, 10 Stay Silent10, 01, 1

The Prisoner’s Dilemma Player 2 Player 1 SquealStay Silent Squeal8, 80, 10 Stay Silent10, 01, 1

The Prisoner’s Dilemma Player 2 Player 1 SquealStay Silent Squeal8, 80, 10 Stay Silent10, 01, 1

The Prisoner’s Dilemma Player 2 Player 1 SquealStay Silent Squeal8, 80, 10 Stay Silent10, 01, 1

The Prisoner’s Dilemma Player 2 Player 1 PolluteCut emissions Pollute8, 80, 10 Cut emissions 10, 01, 1

How to get around the Prisoner’s Dilemma 1.Enforceable contracts – e.g. International Treaties 2.Change the figures – induce co-operation through incentives 3.Repeated play – change the game by building expectations and relationships

What to Expect from Copenhagen There will almost certainly be a deal The fact of the deal will become more politically important than the content of it It will not be sufficiently ambitious to tackle climate change It will be too ambitious for any country to stick to it

From Montreal to Kyoto? Our forthcoming work on an alternative approach suggests that sector-specific treaties aimed at eliminating or reducing key gases may work better than an overarching grand target Based on Montreal Protocol for Ozone Depleting Chemicals E.g. HFCs, PFCs; Aluminium or Semiconductor industries

Mitigation in the UK Focused on Energy, Transport and Buildings UK targets: –80% cut in emissions by 2050 if others also cut –20% cut in emissions by 2020 –Renewables target “The UK leads the world in setting targets”

Mitigation in the UK Energy: massive expansion in renewables, plus replacement and (maybe) more nuclear –Many coal plants shutting in 2016/2017 under EU Large Combustion Plant Directive Transport: electrification key, but no obvious progress in the near future –Biofuels as a warning Buildings: lots of focus on energy efficiency, especially in the home

Adaptation Does discussing adaptation suggest we have given up on mitigation? –Or is it a pragmatic recognition of the failure of our efforts so far? What is the optimum balance between mitigation and adaptation? Adaptation in the UK and globally –Where costs and benefits lie

Threat and Adaptation in the UK

Adaptation in the UK Flooding as the main challenge in the UK –River, coastal but also surface flooding Some increase in sea level would require improved sea defences Wetter winters and drier summers have implications for water supply

Adaptation and Threat in Developing Countries

Adaptation Globally Much more challenging – more vulnerable states with fewer capabilities Will impact on the West – migration, security and economic impacts will be enormous Flooding, crop failure, disease and deforestation all major problems to be tackled Will money be diverted from the International Development budget?

Our moral responsibility Source: David Mackay “Sustainable Energy – Without Hot Air”

Some conclusions The present approach is not working Copenhagen will be a disappointment in the long run Mitigation is expensive; the right policies could make it cheaper and/or simpler The UK will be capable of adapting at reasonable cost Much of the developing world will not