APES Friday, December 6, 2013  Reminders:  Mid-Term FRQ is Thursday, Dec. 12 th  Mid-Term Multiple Choice is Tuesday, Dec. 17 th  Today’s Schedule:  Begin Unit 7 Notes  Go Over Unit 6 Test

Human Population Ecology Chapter 10

Population Ecology  Demography  Study of the size, composition, and distribution of human populations and the causes and effects of their changes  Population change = (Birth + Immigration) – (Death + Emigration)  Instead of using total #s of birth & deaths, demographers use birth rate (crude birth rate) and death rate (crude death rate)

Population Ecology  Crude Birth/Death Rate  = The number of births/ deaths per 1000 individuals per year  Developed countries have a closer crude birth & death rates  Developing countries have higher crude birth rates than death rates

 Reasons for human population increase:  Movement into new habitats and climate zones  Early and modern agriculture methods  Control of infectious diseases through:  Sanitation systems  Antibiotics  Vaccines  Most population growth occurred over last 100 years due to drop in death rates Population Ecology

 Human Population Size

Population Ecology  Human Population Size  Exponential pop growth has slowed  Decreased from 2.2% in 1963 to 1.25% in 2004  Sounds good, but population has doubled to 7 billion  Pop growth rate in developed countries: 0.1%  Pop growth rate in developing countries: 1.5%  Top growing countries: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, & Indonesia

APES Monday, December 9, 2013  Reminders:  Mid-Term FRQ is THIS Thursday, Dec. 12 th  Mid-Term Multiple Choice is Tuesday, Dec. 17 th  Mid-Term Study Guide in ONLINE – will get tomorrow!  Unit 7 Vocab due Friday, 12/13  Today’s Schedule:  Cont. Unit 7 Notes

Population Ecology  Human Population Size  One measure is Doubling Time  The time it takes for a population growing at a specific rate to double its size  Rule of 70: quick way to calculate doubling time  70_________ = doubling time percentage growth rate  Example: Growth rate in 2004 was 1.5%. If that rate continues, how many years will it take for the population to double?  Answer: 70/1.5 = ~47 years

Population Ecology  Fertility Rates  Fertility: number of births that occur to an individual woman or a population  Two types of fertility rates affect a country’s pop size and growth rate: 1. Replacement level fertility: number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves. Typically a bit higher than 2 due to some females dying before reproductive age. (developed countries = 2.1, developing as high as 2.5 children) 2. Total Fertility rate (TFR): Average number of children a woman typically has. Global TFR = 2.8 kids, Developed = 1.6, Developing = 3.1

Population Ecology  Total Fertility Rates

Population Ecology  United States:  Currently 300 million people  Birth Rates  Now near replacement level  Most recent peak was the WW II Baby Boom

Population Ecology  U.S. Growth Rate  Still growing faster than any other developed country  One reason: IMMIGRATION!

Population Ecology  Factors Related to Lowering Birth Rates:  The later (or older) the children enter the work force  The higher the cost of raising and educating children  Availability of retirement/pension systems - kids don’t have to support elderly parents  Families living in urban areas – don’t need kids to work farms  Higher education and employment rates of women  Lower infant mortality rate  Higher age at marriage (fewer kids when marry at 25+)  Availability of legal abortions  Availability of reliable birth control methods  Religious and cultural beliefs

Population Ecology  Lowering Death Rates:  Improvements in health care, nutrition, sanitation, water supplies lead to a higher life expectancy & lower infant mortality  Life expectancy = average # of years a newborn infant can expect to live  Infant mortality rate = # babies out of every 1,000 born who die before 1 year old  Global life expectancy ~ 67 years  Developed country life expectancy = 77 years  Developing country life expectancy = 65 years (Africa = 49 years *AIDS)

Population Ecology  Infant Mortality:  Good indicator of society’s quality of life  High infant mortality suggests insufficient &/or poor food, and high disease  Developed country infant mortality ~ 7  Developing country infant mortality ~ 61  U.S. infant mortality relatively high among developed countries b/c:  Inadequate health care  Drug addiction  Teen pregnancies

Population Ecology  Population Growth due to Immigration:  Only 3 countries encourage immigration:  Canada  Australia  United States  Immigration accounts for ~41% of U.S.’s annual pop growth  Mostly from Latin America and Asia  Debate of immigration???

Population Ecology  Age Structure  = the distribution of males and females in each age group  Three groupings:  Pre reproductive: 0-14 years  Reproductive: years  Post reproductive: 45+

Population Ecology  Age Structure Diagram  Shape indicates population growth trend  Large base means many pre reproductive individuals  pop growth

Population Ecology  Age Structure (U.S. Baby Boom)  By ~ 2030, 1 of every 5 people will be 65+

Population Ecology  Effects of Population Decline  ~40 countries have stabilized or declining pops   higher proportions of older people  Effects :  Higher medical care costs  Depleted social security  Fewer tax payers  Affects immigration (need workers)  ARTICLE to READ! Japan, Russia, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, Greece, Portugal, & Italy

Population Ecology  How can we slow human population growth?  Three most important steps: 1. Reduce poverty through economic development & education 2. Elevate the status of women 3. Encourage family planning & reproductive health care  Step1: Promoting economic development leads to demographic transition:  As countries become industrialized & economically developed, first their death rates decline, then their birth rates decline

Population Ecology  Demographic Transition Model

Population Ecology  Demographic Transition Model  Stage 1 - Preindustrial: Pop growth very slow b/c of high birth & death rate  Stage 2 - Transitional: pop grows rapidly b/c birth rates are high & death rates drop b/c of better food & health  Stage 3 – Industrial: Pop growth slows b/c birth & death rates drop  Stage 4 – Postindustrial: pop growth stabilizes or declines  Developed countries in Stage 3 or 4  Developing countries either in Stage 2 or some in Stage 1 (Africa dealing with AIDS)

Population Ecology  Step 2: Empowering Women  Women who can get (have the right to) education & work have less children  Example: poor, illiterate women have 5-7 children compared to literate who have <2  Depends a lot on cultural & religious beliefs in role of women (Rural Africa)

Population Ecology  Step 3: Family Planning  Provides educational and clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have & when  Includes birth spacing, birth control, health care for pregnant women & infants  Family planning is responsible for a drop of at least 55% in TFRs in developing countries (from 6 in 1960 to 2.7 in 2010)  Example: Thailand cut pop growth rate from 3.2% in 1971 to 0.6% in 2010 (Rural Africa)

Population Ecology  Step 3: Family Planning  Still have problems:  ~40% of all pregnancies in developing countries are unplanned & 26% end in abortion (US had ~1.3 mil abortions in 2007)  Solutions:  expand family planning to include teenagers & unmarried women  educating men  birth control for men? (Rural Africa)

Population Ecology  China  World’s most populous country – 1.3 billion people  1960s – serious threat of mass starvation due to pop growth  Established one-child per family policy  Gov provides contraceptives, sterilizations, and abortions for married couples  Married couples pledge to have 1 kid – get better housing, more food, free health care, etc.  TFR in 1972 was 5.7, in 2010 was 1.5  India  World’s 2 nd largest pop; projected to be largest in 2015  Began world’s first family planning in 1952 but only moderately successful  TFR is ~ 2.6 b/c (1) couples believe need children to care for them in old age, (2) cultural preference for males

Population Ecology  Overall idea: human pop is still growing globally  Some countries still growing too fast  environmental problems  Some countries have declining pop growth  economic problems  Is there an answer??  Cultural carrying capacity  The number of people that could live on the planet in reasonable comfort and freedom without impairing the ability of the planet to sustain future generations  Assignment  Read “Moral Implications of Cultural Carrying Capacity” by Garrett Hardin