National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS NOAA: Space Weather Overview Presented to CGMS-43 (NOAA-PP-31)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS NOAA is the Official Source of Space Weather Services for the United States Sunspot Number Subscription service began Customers Include: All major airlines Drilling and oil exploration Satellite companies Transportation sector Emergency responders ~25% of customers are International Space Weather Prediction Center issues Forecasts, Warnings, and Alerts 2

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS Space Weather Prediction Center New Web Site Satellite Community Page – Now available, further development continues 3

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS Satellite Programs in Support of Space Weather Services GOES-R (planned 2016 launch): Solar imaging, in-situ plasma, energetic particles, and magnetic field Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) (Orbit insertion June 7—8, 2015): Solar wind plasma and magnetic field – Warnings of imminent solar storms Compact Coronagraph (CCOR): Sensor development planning – Long lead-time forecasts of solar storms COSMIC-2a (planned 2016 launch): GNSS radio occultation for space weather and meteorology (in collaboration with Taiwan)/COSMIC-2b (planned 2018 launch) 4

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS DSCOVR Launch Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) launched February 11, 2015 on a Falcon 9 rocket Courtesy of SpaceX 5

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS DSCOVR Status Location: - Currently in transit to L1 - Lissajous orbit insertion ~June 7– 8. Instrumentation status: -Space Weather instruments on and functional -Solar wind plasma measurements match simultaneous measurements from WIND Operational status: -Transition to NOAA Operations: ~July 15 M. Stevens, CfA 6

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS Recent Geomagnetic Storm March 17 th “St. Patrick’s Day” Geomagnetic Storm. ~75 min warning of G4 conditions (1216 UT warn, 1334 UT alert) Equatorial satellite link degradation attributed to ionospheric scintillation Electric field induced on U.S. North-East power grid – no failures reported Aurora viewed from Alaska to Michigan to Colorado 7

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS Solar Cycle A 13-month running average of the monthly sunspot number is used to track the approximate 11-year (22-year magnetic) solar cycle. Consistent with predictions, solar cycle 24 is smaller than recent cycles. Cycle 24 began in December 2008 and is expected to reach maximum around April 2014 (peak smoothed SSN = 84) Solar Maximum: increased number of solar flares and solar energetic particle events; greater solar extreme ultra-violet radiation heating the thermosphere and ionosphere… Solar Minimum: increased cosmic ray flux, increased high-energy electrons in the radiation belts (also during declining phase), increased satellite charging at low altitudes… 8

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS Significant Space Weather April 2014-March Solar Flare Events: Largest event was an X3.1/2b at 2141 UTC on October 24, 2014 (NOAA Scale R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout). Solar Proton Events: Largest >10 MeV event (peak 126 pfu at 12/1355 UTC Sep 2014 (NOAA Scale S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm) Geomagnetic Storms: Largest storm was on March 17, 2015 (A P = 117) was due to coronal mass ejection passage. 9

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 2015 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites - CGMS NOAA Space Weather Points of Contact Space Weather Prediction Center -Tom Berger, Director - Howard Singer, Chief Scientist -Terry Onsager, International Affairs With additional contributions from Doug Biesecker and Meghan Stockman, … 10