China and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities Trish McCubbin Associate Professor Southern Illinois University School of Law

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 2 Research Institute for Environmental Law Wuhan University School of Law Wuhan, Hubei Province

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 3 Concerns About “Unilateral” Action by the U.S.  China is now the #1 emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by annual volume.  Some assume China is doing nothing to reign in its GHGs, just like 10 years ago during the Kyoto negotiations.

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 4 Roadmap for Future Negotiations with China  China’s New Political Will to Address GHGs  “Common but Differentiated” Commitments from Developed and Developing Nations  Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law in China

The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 5 International Pressures 2008 Olympics in Beijing

The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs (Continued)  New study by Chinese government of domestic climate change impacts (June 2007) - Loss of agricultural production - Melting of Tibetan plateau - Destruction of habitat for giant panda - Flooding of coastal areas from sea level rise June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 6 Domestic Pressures

The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs (Continued) June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 7 China’s Severe Domestic Environmental Degradation  16 out of 20 of the world’s most polluted cities are in China.  Only 1% of cities meets modern air quality standards.  World Bank estimate: 750,000 premature deaths each year from air pollution “[L]iving in China’s most polluted cities is a pulmonary disaster equivalent to smoking two packs of cigarettes a day.” —State Environmental Protection Administration Official

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 8 Government’s Strong Desire to Address Domestic Environmental Conditions  Growing citizen protests - est. 50,000 annually  Government concern about social instability

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 9 Government’s Strong Desire to Address Domestic Environmental Conditions  Government’s own Green GDP calculation in 2006: 3% annual loss  World Bank’s estimate: 8% annual loss

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 10 China’s Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far  11 th Five-Year Plan (2006)  National Climate Change Programme (June 2007)  National Energy Plan (December 2007)

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 11 China’s Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far (Continued) Commitments - Improved energy efficiency (target: 4% reduction each year) - Greater fuel efficiency standards for vehicles - More reliance on non-carbon fuels - Use of carbon capture and sequestration at coal-fired power plants

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 12 Merely Paper Commitments?  2006 goal of reducing energy usage not met – only reduced by 1.23%, not 4%  Similar goal for 2007 also missed – reduced only by 3.27%  2008 – 4% goal supposedly met

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 13 Important Signals of Cooperation from Chinese Central Government  President Hu Jintao: China can no longer afford the “excessively high price” to the environment caused by the nation’s rapid economic growth. (Oct. 2007)  Chinese Diplomat at Bali negotiations: China “will follow if the European Union and the United States lead” in international efforts to address GHGs. (Dec. 2007)

Key Differences Between China and U.S. June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 14  Population: China—1.3 Billion America—0.3 Billion  U.S. per capita GHG emissions are 4 to 5 times China’s.  “Pollution by Proxy” – Carnegie and Tyndall Studies

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 15 Poverty and China’s Status as a Truly Developing Country  World Bank estimates 300 million Chinese live below poverty level.  100s of millions live above the poverty line but are still unable to afford basics like education or healthcare.

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 16 U.S. and International Recognition of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities” of All Nations Agreements  U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)  APEC Summit Statement (September 2007)  Bali Action Plan (December 2007)

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 17 “Common But Differentiated” Responsibilities in Practice  For U.S. and other developed nations: Annual cap on GHG emissions set substantially below current levels  For China and other developing nations: Growth of GHGs, but with measures to slow the growth and (ideally) peak in 2020 or 2025  Bali Plan: “Measurable, verifiable and reportable”

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 18 The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law Structural Problems with Environmental Legal Regime  Low penalties  Enforcement by provincial officials with conflicts of interest  Limited role for citizens

June 13, 2016Prof. Trish McCubbin 19 The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law (Continued) Broader Challenges to the Rule of Law Generally  Judiciary subject to political pressure  Corruption found within judiciary  Challenge of modernizing judicial system