1. Group 4: The Rise of China By: Romain Knowles (0561764); Iain Thew (0569113); Mark Biesta (0679739); Juliet Whittall (0563581) IMS3/MSFM3 Sustainability Module, March 2008 References Coleman, D, Azevedo, M, Colley, J, Zhu, J, Jennings, R, Holliway, R, Surnson, A and Hughes, M (2007) “China 2008 Country Review”, Country Watch Nehru, V, Kraay, A and Yu, X (1997) “China 2020: Development challenges in the new century”, World Bank, Washington DC National Bureau of Statistics: China (2008), “GDP growth 1952 – 2007”, http://www.chinability.com/GDP.htm Lin, J, Zhou, N, Levine, M and Fridley, D. (December 2006) “Achieving China’s Target for Energy Intensity Reduction in 2010 – An exploration of recent trends and possible future scenarios” http://china.lbl.gov UN (2003) “China's Rural and Urban Population, 1950-2030” (Estimates) China-Profile http://www.china-profile.com/data/fig_urban_2.htm Introduction Over the past 50 years, China has experienced a rapid transformation from a command economy to a market orientated economy. It is now the second largest economy in the world and with increasing foreign investment, it is likely to become number one. However, this development has lead to a number of problems, socially, economically and environmentally. This prompts the question; is China’s development sustainable? Rural to Urban Migration Energy Consumption The goal of building a high standard of living requires ever increasing demands on energy supply; Domestic energy needs Growing heavy industry Infrastructure growth “the seriousness of environmental degradation in China means that the conventional Chinese path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment has to be changed” Zhang Zhongxiang China’s booming economy has created a wealthy, urban middle class that aspires to an affluent westernized lifestyle. The bicycle, the traditional mode of transport for the middle classes is falling out of favour and private car ownership is on the increase, actively encouraged by the Chinese Government who sees a strong automobile industry as a pillar of their economy. China has, however, recognised the problems that are being caused by car emissions and has passed legislation to try and limit air pollution, recently setting a new standard for car emissions that has been enforced from March 1st this year. SustainableEngineering@Edinburgh Owing to the political emphasis on economic development only, China’s rapid growth has not been sustainable, socially or environmentally. Globally there is an increased awareness of sustainability, and China has made limited progress towards a more sustainable future. Whether it chooses to invest more in green technologies or ignore the warnings is now up to China to decide. Urban Transport Conclusion To improve the situation, the Chinese government has introduced a number of policies. More smaller cities are to be developed, including eco-city Dongtan, more money is being injected into education and sexual equality is being promoted. UNICEF and SEPA are also working to improve environmental and social welfare. Since the late 1970s, China has experienced a rapid influx of people into the cities (see graph below). The reason for this is a ‘push and pull’ system; Low income in farming Poor provision of health insurance for rural residents A greater demand for services in the cities An improved urban food supply Relaxed migration laws. The rising urban population has encountered many problems including: A low quality of life Poor education Lack of sanitation High rate of poverty Water shortages Rising air pollution levels China 1990 China 2005 China 2050 Rural and Urban Population China’s Sustainable energy programme has set ambitious targets for energy efficiency improvement by 2010 and 2020: energy intensity of the country’s GDP should be reduced by 20%. These targets involve; A reduction on the reliance of coal by 6% Building the equivalent of a Three Gorges dam every two years Adding carbon and sulphur capture to existing fossil fuel plants Increasing the number of nuclear energy plants.