Announcements ES/BI 214: Coastal Ecology on Cape Cod – A field course, meets 4-5 times during the semester and goes to Cape Cod May –Info Session 10/20, 6 –7 pm, MH124 Extra credit – Too Much Food: Of Geese, Pearly Pond and Franklin Pierce presented by Dr. Catherine Koning –6:30-7:30, Tonight in Pierce Hall

Reading Questions for Thursday Plan ahead – don’t wait until Wednesday night Go to website –You do not need to provide your address –You may need to download Flash Player or go to a computer lab

Industrial Societies Industrial Revolution – 200 yrs ago Death rate decreases –Technology: Medicine, sanitation, agriculture Birth rate decreases –High birth rate → low birth rate –Doesn’t occur immediately

Industrial Societies continued Birth rates equal to or less than death rates, Close to zero population growth Approximately 13% of the world population (mostly European countries) is in this stage

Demographic transition = Drop in death and birth rate as country becomes wealthier Why does the birth rate decline? Freedom + money = Pursue hobbies, activities, travel Education for women Lower infant/child mortality Invest more in fewer children –Kids are expensive

Carrying Capacity The accepted estimate of the total # of humans the earth can support is 10 – 12 billion The # of people the earth can support depends on –Technology –Resource use –Earth’s productivity

World Population Trends Is population growth slowing fast enough? Yes, logistic – level off near K No, Overshoot with crash and burn

Demography Study of population trends based on growth, movement, development etc

Global population growth rate is decreasing 1.2 Global 0.9 U.S.

Fertility rates have declined worldwide in past 50 yrs

Current trends suggest: (decline in fertility rates, demographic transition) Human pop growth  logistic Will it be soon enough?

Population pyramid – shows age distribution

We live in 2 very different demographic worlds Developed Countries Developing Countries Developed regions Developing regions

Most population growth will occur in which countries in the 21 st century? 1.Developed Countries 2.Developing Countries 3.Sophisticated Countries 4.Boreal Countries 5.All of the above

Developed Countries Modern industry and technology Pop is rich, older and little to no growth rate Completed demographic transition N. American, Europe, Japan

This graph indicates the population is 1.Stable 2.Increasing 3.Growing very rapidly

Ex. Sweden Even age distribution  stable population

Developing Countries –Not fully industrialized –Pop is poor, young and growing rapidly –Africa, Latin America, Asia

Ex. Age Distribution in Niger Rapid growth – large young pop (r = 3.9)

Developing countries - pop is increasing the greatest –Some areas doubling pop in 18yrs Richer countries – pop steady or declining Developing regions Developed regions

How do we achieve a stable population? The most significant factors: Investing in Family Planning Reducing poverty Elevating the status of women –Education