CHOICES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE A Game on pursuing protection under peculiar probabilities by Pablo Suarez & Miquel Muñoz.

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Presentation transcript:

CHOICES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE A Game on pursuing protection under peculiar probabilities by Pablo Suarez & Miquel Muñoz

1. We will play a few sets of rounds (Increasing complexity) 2. Game = simplified representation of reality (No questioning of game rules) 3. Decisions are individual (But consultation with team is encouraged) 4. You win or lose “performance points” (Points can’t be traded within team at first) 5. Cheating is wrong (But deliberately possible) GROUND RULES

YOU (RED CROSS WORKER) You can invest in flood or drought preparedness (or in other, non-climate, important things)

What are the chances of a disaster this year? (Based on past record) Probability of Regional Drought = 1 in 6 Probability of Regional Flood = 1 in 6

NO PREPAREDNE SS NO DISASTER DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Avoidable damages Lose -3 Other investments pay off Gain +2 Few other investments Gain only +1 No avoidable damages No change Owe more points than you have? FIRED!

Losing Player(s): All who run out of performance points (OUT) Losing Team: Most team members out Winning Team: Most points accumulated collectively Winning Player: Most points accumulated individually WINNERS & LOSERS

LET’S PLAY!

What about Climate Change? Based on past record, Probability of Regional Drought = 1 in 6 In the year 2025, Probability of Regional Drought = ?