1. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Making Good Decisions Under Uncertainty Marianne Fay, Chief Economist Climate Change Group Vice Presidency

2. designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development)designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development) Decisions for the Decade How do we make smart long-term decisions?

3. Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 Provinces

4. Your aim: to create a prosperous province and nation…

7. 2.Decisions are individual No consulting with others on Provincial Decisions Do collaborate during National Decisions BASIC RULES 1.Simplification of reality No challenging the rules! 3.We will play 4 decades of decision making Each round is 10 years

8. DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS3. OBSERVATIONS4. RESULTS FLOOD Protection (0 - 9) DEVELOPMENT (1 - 10) DROUGHT Protection (0 - 9) Choose Robust Option? Annual Precipitation # Crises # Prosperity Points Decade 1 2 Yes / No 3 4 TOTAL: How to Win Winning Provinces Fewest Crises out of ALL players Max 1 provicial winner per country Tiebreaker within country: province with most prosperity points 1 Winning Country: Most Prosperity Points Tiebreaker: country with fewest crises

9. DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis

10. DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought…

11. DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

12. DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean… 123456789 If just 1 drought occurs… …we get 9 Prosperity Points!

13. DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean But, what if we had a second drought? Not enough protection… …means a humanitarian crisis …and 0 prosperity points! Each shortage of protection is a new crisis!

14. 1. Scientific Information Probabilities, Predictions, Etc. 3. Observations Rains, Teammate Decisions 4. Results Crisis….or Prosperity Points? 2. Decision Your 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection

15. 1. Scientific Information Probabilities, Predictions, Etc. 3. Observations Rains, Teammate Decisions 4. Results Crisis….or Prosperity Points? 2. Decision Your 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection

16. Drought Severity Rating 1. SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION

17. = Drought = Flood

18. 1. Scientific Information Probabilities, Predictions, Etc. 3. Observations Rains, Teammate Decisions 4. Results Crisis….or Prosperity Points? 2. Decision Your 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection

19. 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS3. OBSERVATIONS4. RESULTS FLOOD Protection (0 - 9) DEVELOPMENT (1 - 10) DROUGHT Protection (0 - 9) Choose Robust Option? Annual Precipitation # Crises # Prosperity Points Decade 1 091 2 Yes / No 3 4 TOTAL: DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean 2. DECISIONS

20. Province 1 Province 2

21. Provincial decisions are independent National decisions require teamwork Default is to invest in development Consensus to invest in protection National and Provincial Decisions

22. 1. Scientific Information Probabilities, Predictions, Etc. 3. Observations Rains, Teammate Decisions 4. Results Crisis….or Prosperity Points? 2. Decision Your 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection

23. 3. OBSERVATIONS Ten years of rainfall occur = Drought = Flood

24. 3. OBSERVATIONS Ten years of rainfall occur 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS3. OBSERVATIONS4. RESULTS FLOOD Protection (0 - 9) DEVELOPMENT (1 - 10) DROUGHT Protection (0 - 9) Choose Robust Option? Annual Precipitation # Crises # Prosperity Points Decade 1 091 1, 4, 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 4 2 Yes / No 3 4 TOTAL:

25. 1. Scientific Information Probabilities, Predictions, Etc. 3. Observations Rains, Teammate Decisions 4. Results Crisis….or Prosperity Points? 2. Decision Your 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection

26. 4. RESULTS Province 1 Province 2 4. RESULTS # Crises # Prosperity Points 06 TOTAL:

27. 4. RESULTS # Crises # Prosperity Points 06 TOTAL: 4. RESULTS # Crises # Prosperity Points 10 TOTAL: Province 1 Province 2

28. Provincial Losers: Anyone with a CRISIS…(1 or more) (If everyone has a crises then anyone with 2+, etc.) Winners & Losers 1 Winning Country: Most Prosperity Points Tiebreaker: country with fewest crises Winning Province in Each Country: No crises! (Or fewest crises in the room) Most Prosperity Points

29. Winning The Game 1 Winning Country: Most Prosperity Points Tiebreaker: country with fewest crises Winning Provinces: Provinces with fewest crises out of ALL players At MOST 1 provincial winner per country Tiebreaker within country: most prosperity points There Are Prizes!!!

30. Let’s Play!!!

31. 1. SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION Historical Rainfall = Drought = Flood

32. A second round With

33. Robust Option Guarantees: ? points Costs: 10 beans

34. Let’s Play!!! But only two years

35. Have you heard about… CLIMATE CHANGE? = Drought = Flood 1678

36. A third round Robust options still for sale…

37. We have a NEW MODEL for climate change... Normal Flood Drought

38. Final Results: Decades 1-3 ONLY 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS3. OBSERVATIONS4. RESULTS FLOOD Protection (0 - 9) DEVELOPMENT (1 - 10) DROUGHT Protection (0 - 9) Choose Robust Option? Annual Precipitation # Crises # Prosperity Points Decade 1 2 Yes / No 3 4 TOTAL:

39. This game was designed by Pablo Suarez and Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) for the World Bank Chief Economist for Sustainable Development, with additional support from the American Red Cross and CDKN. The development process was part of a research grant to the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre from the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN Action Lab Innovation Fund). As such, it is an output from a project funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Netherlands Directorate- General for International Cooperation (DGIS) for the benefit of developing countries. However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID, DGIS or the entities managing the delivery of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, which can accept no responsibility or liability for such views, completeness or accuracy of the information or for any reliance placed on them.